The PGA Tour heads to The Lone Star State this week, and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and FedEx Cup points leader Rory McIlroy are the betting favorites in the Houston Open odds.
Memorial Park Golf Course will host the Texas Children's Houston Open for the fifth consecutive year, and my top golf picks have you covered for all the action.
Golf picks for the Houston Open 2025
- Rai to win outright (+3000 at DraftKings)
- Finau to win outright (+3500 at FanDuel)
- Taylor Top 40 (+115 at bet365)
- Dunlap Top 40 (+160 at DraftKings)
- McIlroy Round 1 Under 67.5 (+110 at Caesars)
Houston Open outright picks
Outright pick: Aaron Rai
+3000 at DraftKings
This is an outlier high price for Aaron Rai to win outright at DraftKings, and I don’t expect it to last. He has consecutive T7s at Memorial Park, which were preceded by a T19 in his 2022 debut.. He's also coming off three consecutive Top 15s.
Simply put, Rai checks the current form and course history boxes, and he’s gained true strokes on the greens in seven straight events. Add ranking fourth in this field in true strokes gained on approach and seventh in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the noted Top 15s run, and I anticipate the Englishman having another solid showing in Houston.
Outright pick: Tony Finau
+3500 at FanDuel
Memorial Park has been an annual stop for Tony Finau the past four years, and he carded a T2 here following his 2023 win at the track. Ideally, he’d be heading to the Lone Star State in better current form, but it’s tough to argue with him ranking first in true strokes gained tee-to-green in last year’s event and fourth during his 2023 victory.
Plus, I’m willing to chalk his missed cut in THE PLAYERS up to being in the tougher morning wave because he did post a solid T5 at The Genesis in February at Torrey Pines, which is another comfort course for the tee-to-green machine.
Houston Open prop picks
Finishing position pick: Nick Taylor Top 40
+115 at bet365
Nick Taylor played the weekend in six consecutive events while pacing this field in true strokes gained on approaches and ranking fifth true strokes gained tee-to-green before missing the cut at THE PLAYERS. He also collected his fifth PGA Tour win at the Sony to begin the run, and this will be his third competitive visit to Memorial Park.
The Canadian is set up for a bounce-back week, and his well-rounded game is reinforced by ranking 16th in scoring average and 10th in bogey avoidance this season. Plus, his weekend off at TPC Sawgrass was at least partially influenced by playing the more difficult wave in the first two rounds.
Finishing position pick: Nick Dunlap Top 40
+160 at DraftKings
While the two-time PGA Tour winner has missed consecutive cuts, it’s presented a buy-low opportunity and long number considering Nick Dunlap finished T11 while gaining true strokes across the board in this event last year.
I’d obviously prefer to see Dunlap heading to Memorial Park in better form, but in addition to winning twice last season, he’s also a U.S. Amateur and U.S. Jr. Amateur Champion and has carded a T17 at The Genesis and T10 at the Sony already this season.
I think he can flip the switch and have four solid rounds this week.
Houston Open first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Rory McIlroy Under 67.5
+110 at Caesars
Despite this being the first trip to Memorial Park for Rory McIlroy, I’m expecting him to have a solid opening round. He’s won three of his past six worldwide events, and ranks second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, fifth on approach, and 11th in putting during the heater.
Ranking first in true strokes gained off-the-tee and second in driving distance will be an advantage, too.
McIlroy is also first on the PGA Tour in adjusted scoring average, 13th in birdie-or-better percentage, and 12th in Round 1 scoring average. Additionally, there’s statistical correction ahead of his 46.88% Par-5 birdie-or-better percentage considering he’s posted respective 52.25% and 53.26% the past two years.
I also value McIlroy ranking eighth in scrambling percentage and 30th in bogey avoidance to keep the squares off Thursday’s card.
Houston Open odds
- Scottie Scheffler (+330)
- Rory McIlroy (+700)
- Aaron Rai (+3000)
- Michael Kim (+3000)
- J.J. Spaun (+3000)
- David Thompson (+3000)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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