Golf Picks

I like Justin Thomas in the outright market as well, but I would rather take a shot on his FRL number at 18/1 than his outright number of 11/1. There are two main reasons for taking a look at the higher payout. First, Thomas is one of the best starters on Tour. Last season, he finished 14th in first-round scoring average, which is the fifth-best ranking among this field. Second, and more importantly, JT is one of the hottest golfers in this field. He finished third at the Hero World Challenge and runner-up at the Zozo Championship, displaying a masterclass in ball striking across both tournaments. That momentum is more likely to carry into Thursday than any other day of this event. Finally, JT is a two-time winner of The Sentry with three additional Top-5 finishes, so course fit is clearly not a concern.

Not only did J.T. Poston finish T-5 here last year, but he also finished T-21 in 2023 and T-11 in 2020. Poston is 2-for-3 in finishing inside this number in this tournament and was just one shot away from bringing that rate to 100%. He also enters this week in great form, having won the Shriners Children’s Open and finishing T-5 at The RSM Classic. Poston gained true strokes around the green in each of those two tournaments and finished 31st overall on Tour in that category.

Chris Kirk returns to Kapalua as the defending champion. While I do believe regression is looming, I don’t think it will result in a 20-placement drop. Kirk has finished T-16 or higher in four of his five career appearances at this tournament, which is a testament to his play around the greens. The only reason why Kirk is returning +160 in this market is his poor recent form, but now is a good opportunity to buy low on the defending champion. His recent struggles can be attributed to a poor stretch of putting. However, Kirk fared well on the greens here last season with +1.02 true strokes gained putting. If he succeeds on these greens once again, then his main weakness is minimized.

A common trend last year was Collin Morikawa finishing runner-up to Scottie Scheffler. This occurred at the Tour Championship and the Memorial Tournament, along with a few other Top-5 finishes in tournaments where Scheffler won. Point being, Morikawa often outperforms most professional fields, with the exception of Scheffler. The good news for Morikawa this week is that Scheffler will not be teeing it up due to recent hand surgery. This development led to Morikawa owning the second-lowest odds to win The Sentry, and 11/1 is too good of a return to pass up. While Xander Schauffele is rightly priced as the betting favorite, I don’t think there should be a five-dollar gap between him and Morikawa, especially considering the course fit for the latter. The Plantation Course rewards strong play around the green, and Morikawa finished 10th on Tour in strokes gained around the green last season.

Byeong Hun An made his Kapalua debut last season and put together a tremendous performance that resulted in a fourth-place finish. Now that he has four rounds of competitive experience at this venue under his belt, I wouldn’t be shocked if he took another step forward this year. He enters this week in great form, coming off a victory at the Genesis Championship on the DP World Tour. While that is obviously not the same level of competition that he will face this week, An still had to take down Tom Kim in a playoff to capture the victory. An is a terrific all-around player, though his one drawback is an inaccurate driver. However, that is a reason to further like An this week, given that Kapalua is a course where that part of the game does not matter due to its links-style layout. Last season, each of the Top 4 finishers here (including An) ranked 30th or lower among the field in driving accuracy.