NBA Picks

New York’s stingy defense won’t let Siakam catch it by surprise in Game 1, but the athletic forward can hurt the Knicks in other ways. He displayed his passing prowess in that opening round series, dishing out four or more assists in four of the six games including efforts of six and seven dimes against the Bucks. Siakam’s assist prop for Game 1 versus the Knicks is at 3.5 Over/Under, which sits right on his season average of 4.3 dimes per game. However, Siakam is logging more floor time in the postseason, with his minutes jumping from 31.8 to 38 in the playoffs. Siakam finished the first round topping that 3.5-assist bar in four of the six games and closed the series with 6.7 potential assists per outing. Player projections sourced for Game 1 all come in above that total with a ceiling of five dimes from some models, while my number comes out to four assist Monday night.

Despite this being a completely different series, opponent, and matchup, OG Anunoby's assists prop continues its adjustment that we saw during the Philadelphia 76ers series. Anunoby was still collecting potential assists against the 76ers; in fact, his potential assists were higher than what we saw from him in the regular season: 3 per game compared to 2.6 in the regular season. They just weren't converting for him. A matchup against the Indiana Pacers compared to the 76ers is where the conversion of those potential assists could change. Anunoby is projected to have 1.9 assists on Monday against the Pacers. 

The six-game sample size may worry you, but Tom Thibodeau is not going to change his approach in the second round. The Knicks dropped the 76ers offensive rating by 5.5 points compared to the regular season time with Joel Embiid in the lineup. Two buckets per 100 possessions needs to be noted. Ignoring the sample-size worry allows you to find value before oddsmakers catch all the way on to this New York defense. Expect it to slow down Indiana tonight and force a few more bad looks than usual. For that matter, add the Madison Square Garden crowd as a sixth defender.

Sending double teams at Anthony Edwards will most benefit Karl-Anthony Towns’. If Aaron Gordon directs any of his attention toward Edwards, then Towns will have his own mismatches to exploit. If the Nuggets get caught in a defensive rotation, Minnesota will gladly make an extra pass to get an open 3 for the best-shooting big man in NBA history. Denver’s defense has no answer for Edwards — there are few in the NBA — and trying to slow the blossoming superstar should create more opportunities for Towns, every bit Edwards’s equal as a scorer, even if not as dynamic.

Every once in a while, a team gets ahead of any power ratings that handicappers use or math that oddsmakers use. The 2019 LSU offense and the 2021 Georgia defense come to mind as clear examples. It is fitting the current thought is led by a Bulldog. Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves have covered five straight games in the most important time of year, doing so by an average of 14.6 points compared to expectations. This Game 2 spread being a point larger than Game 1’s is a step in the wrong direction. The ratings and math simply have not caught up to the Wolves yet.

Jamal Murray is clearly not himself. The usually clutch guard shot just 6-of-14 in Game 1, reluctant to shoot much at all in the first half. Perhaps more telling, he got to the free throw line just three times. As long as Murray’s calf is such an issue, Denver’s best offense will be Nikola Jokic producing for himself. That may not be Jokic’s preferred game, but it is within his skill set. Some added aggression should come from trailing 1-0 in this series, turning Game 2 into a bit of a must win. Jokic will shoulder that burden and at least match his 32 points from Game 1.

When Anthony Edwards was playing against the Phoenix Suns before this three-game stretch, his points total was trading at 24.5. Following this outburst in the last three games, this total is now four points higher, trading at 28.5. Not only is the total four points higher, but this is a much different series. A game against the Nuggets isn't likely to yield as many points as a game against the Suns. While Edwards is their go-to scorer and will still take plenty of shots, the two-man game of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert puts a lot of pressure on Nikola Jokic as a defender. Edwards is projected to score 26.8 points on Monday against the Nuggets.

Jaden McDaniels should make an All-NBA Defensive team this season, and his ability to guard Jamal Murray is crucial to this series. Not only can he guard Murray, but he has the positional size where the Timberwolves can mix it up and leave McDaniels on Michael Porter Jr., with Anthony Edwards guarding Murray. Nikola Jokic is matchup-proof, so in order to defeat the Nuggets, the Timberwolves need to contain their other offensive weapons. McDaniels is crucial to this piece of the puzzle, and it's why I think his minutes are very secure and could be elevated in this series. McDaniels is projected to drop 1.7 dimes against the Nuggets on Monday.