MLB Picks

The Dodgers are ninth in the majors in runs per game (4.88) and the Statcast analytics and their loaded lineup suggest they should be even better. Los Angeles has three former MVPs at the top of its lineup and quality hitters like Michael Conforto and Max Muncy near the bottom. The Dodgers are third in the majors in barrel rate (11.3%), fourth in hard-hit rate (43.7%), and second in xSLG (.482). The Cubs are sending struggling sophomore Ben Brown to the hill tonight. Brown has looked shaky in all three of his starts, allowing 17 hits and 10 earned runs through 11 2/3 innings. The righty sits in the bottom 25th percentile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and xBA (.280). The Cubs also have a mediocre bullpen behind Brown with their relievers 28th in the majors in WHIP (1.71) and 29th in OBA (.303).

Though Seager went 0-for-3 last night against the Seattle Mariners, he had multi-hit games in his two prior outings against the Chicago Cubs, capped by a pair of home runs in Wednesday’s win.That suggests he’s heating up, and it’s the type of spark Texas needs at the top of the order with Marcus Semien struggling. He’ll also have good memories of facing Mariners starter Bryan Woo. Seager has picked up hits in three of his four at-bats against the Seattle righty, with a double and a homer, and his 2025 average climbs to .241 when facing right-handers. Despite an underwhelming 41.9% hard-hit rate across his first 12 outings of the year, the pedigree is there.Seager has served up 30+ round-trippers in each of the past three seasons, and I like the price for this home run prop.

Woo is coming off a rough outing against the Giants but he still has an excellent 0.92 WHIP with an OBA of .186 through two starts. The 25-year-old had a breakout sophomore season last year, pitching to a 2.89 ERA with an OBA of .211 across 22 starts. He was even better at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park where he had a 2.47 ERA with a .186 OBA in 58 1/3 innings. Woo should have an easy time tonight against a slumping Rangers lineup. Texas is 26th in the majors in batting average (.210) while ranking 28th in expected batting average (.228). Since the beginning of last season, Woo has made 11 starts at home and has allowed fewer than 4.5 hits in eight of those outings. 

Logan Webb is a legitimate threat to pitch 7+ innings every time he takes the mound, especially as he gets more stretched out, and he's done exactly that in back-to-back starts — allowing just one earned run in 14 IP. Yes, the Yankees are dangerous, but Webb keeps the ball in the park very effectively. While you might be concerned about how shaky Carlos Rodon's been, don't be. The Gianst have hit just three home runs off lefties this season and are slashing .210/.266/.380 vs. southpaws. 

Casey Mize has harnessed his splitter and is finally looking like the pitcher the Tigers thought he'd be when they selected him first overall in 2018. He's coming off a brilliant start vs. the formidable Yankees, limiting them to one run over six innings. The Twins are flailing, and while the home-field advantage is likely the reason for Detroit to be available at plus money on the moneyline, I'll take that every day of the week. Simeon Woods Richardson has not typically missed a ton of bats and I expect the Tigers offense to do more than enough in support of Mize.

Francis has picked up right where he left off last season. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball down the stretch, allowing just 10 earned runs over his final 10 starts. One of those starts was against Baltimore, where he tossed 5.2 innings of three-hit baseball, giving up just two runs. That’s been the key number for Francis, as he hasn't allowed more than two runs in five straight starts, hitting his Under (2.5 earned runs) in all five of those games. Moreover, he’s 12-1 to the Under over his last 13 outings dating back to last year’s MLB trade deadline. Francis has continued to pitch well early in his 2025 season with a 1-1 record, racking up 10 strikeouts, while allowing just two runs in each of his first two starts of the year.  As for the Orioles, they’re averaging 2.3 runs per game against starting pitching to this point in the season and have been held to under 2.5 runs in eight of their 13 games this season.