NFL Picks

As bad as the Browns are, 17.5 is a huge spread to be betting against, especially when there are still some difference-makers on defense. The fact this game is taking place in Week 18 might save the Browns blushes, with Cleveland not getting heavily beaten on by their divisional rivals. The Ravens will win, there’s no doubt about that, but we know the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed locked up. Once the Ravens are a couple of scores up, why would they risk Lamar Jackson and their best playmakers? It’s hard to see the motivation for the Ravens to finish the game with the players who started it. Expect to see plenty of rushing and some backups on the field late.

This Bengals resurgence has been led by the offense, with the defense ranked fourth from bottom in DVOA. For context, no other team with a defense in the bottom 10 in terms of DVOA is even in contention at this stage. That speaks to the quality of what their offense is doing and in particular Joe Burrow. He’s having a truly elite season in nearly every metric, and is on a tear, throwing three or more touchdown passes in eight straight games. A matchup against the Steelers is the last piece of the playoff jigsaw that they can impact and you better believe the Bengals will come into this game hungrier and more motivated than the Steelers.

The Vikings are on a nine-game winning streak but lost 31-29 at home when these teams clashed in Week 7. The Lions are 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. Detroit has also gone  37-16 ATS (69.8%) since the start of the 2022 season. Despite injuries piling up on defense, the Lions continue to get the job done and are fresh off a road win against the 49ers on Monday night. Minnesota's defense blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL and needs to get to the passer if they want to have success. However, Detroit's O-line does a great job in pass protection and Jared Goff has the sixth-best grade (82.9) when blitzed per PFF. The Vikings have been giving up big plays and won't be able to contain a Lions attack that is third in the league in dropback EPA and fourth in rush EPA. With how dominant the Lions have been at home, I'm not betting against them at any spread below a FG. 

This is the highest total of the season but I'm still leaning towards the Over. There have previously been five games this year (with Detroit playing in four of them) with totals at 53 or above and the Over is 4-1 in those contests. The Lions lead the league with 33.3 ppg and with QB Jared Goff thriving against the blitz, he will pick apart a blitz-happy Vikings defense. That said, Minnesota will also put up points against an injury-plagued Lions stop unit. The Lions have given up more than 30 points in three of their last four games and they surrendered 29 points when these teams previously clashed. The Vikings have scored 27+ points in five of their last six games. Minnesota is fifth in the NFL in dropback success rate and All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson has made a habit of torching Detroit's secondary.