NFL Picks

Mostert has recorded double-digit receiving yards in three of his four games with five receptions for 39 yards on seven targets. While he’s splitting carries with backfield mate De'Von Achane, Mostert is still plenty involved in the Miami offense, including playing 47% of the offensive snaps and running 17 routes during the Week 8 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. It’s also not a nightmare matchup with the Bills surrendering a healthy 6.58 yards per target to opposing running backs. 

Derek Carr coming back which is good for Olave, who is coming off a big day in Week 8 but couldn’t crack the end zone and has only one TD this season. Perfect remedy to that, play the Panthers who top the NFC in passing touchdowns allowed, second worst RZ TD%, and a big drop off in defensive opposition compared the NOLA’s recent foes. Fellow WR Bub Means questionable with an ankle, could mean more looks to Olave, who has had success finding the end zone against the Panthers in past seasons.

Denver has built its surprise 5-3 SU record on the backs of bad teams, but let’s not discount what defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is doing. The Broncos rate No. 1 in EPA allowed per play, No. 3 in opponent success rate per play, and No. 5 in Defensive DVOA at FTN. Those advanced metrics strip back the strength of schedule and grade each team on an even plane. Baltimore turns into the pumpkin after the 45-minute mark, getting outscored 93-59 in the final frame this season. That’s led to blown covers as a big favorite, which the Ravens just so happen to be in Week 9. Baltimore has been a bad, bad bet when laying the lumber in recent seasons, boasting a soul-crushing 1-11-1 ATS record when set as a favorite of a touchdown or more since 2021.

The Dolphins looked much better in last week’s collapse to the Cardinals. With Tua back under center, the Miami offense was a completely different beast. It scored 27 points after failing to post more than 15 without Tagovailoa and wrapped Week 8 as the ninth-best offense in EPA per play. This improvement wasn’t just about having punch back in the passing game. We watched the rushing attack rumble for 150 yards and average six yards per carry, with RBs De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jaylen Wright sharing the load. The Bills defense has looked great the past two weeks, holding Seattle and Tennessee to just 10 points apiece. But Buffalo does have a soft spot in the middle of this stop unit. Mike McDaniel could lean into his talented trio of rushers and try to take the air out of the football and play the possession game, parking Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense on the sideline.

Playing into a pass-heavy game script is the fact this spread has climbed to Atlanta -3, which means the Cowboys will be trying to claw their way back on the scoreboard – leading to a faster and pass-heavy playbook. That’s saying something considering Dallas is already the second most pass-happy offense in the land (65.92% plays plays). Dak has tossed 38 or more passes in four of his first seven games and player projections for Week 9 range from a low of 33 to 43 passing attempts, with my number coming in just short of 40 passes from Prescott.

Winston is a capable runner and scrambler out of the pocket, and while I’m not anticipating him being featured in the run game, this is also a low total. Plus, the Chargers have allowed 5.2 yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks and an opposing QB has recorded six or more rushing yards in six of seven games. Winston might only need one chunk scramble to go Over the number, too.

Whatever it is, over the past few seasons, Lamb has turned into an absolute monster for the Dallas Cowboys in the immediate games following a bye week. In 2022, he amassed 301 yards in his first three games after the bye. Last year, 500 yards in three post-bye games. This year? He came out of a Week 7 bye and dropped a season-high 146 yards against the 49ers. He faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that has struggled to contain the opponent's top pass-catcher this season... but has also seen its offense hit high gear — considering how bad the Dallas defense has been, Lamb & Co. should be chasing points all afternoon, with the heavy lifting coming from the passing game.

One of the Giants’ main issues is their inability to find the end zone. Even when the G-Men put up 18 points last week against Pittsburgh, they scored just one touchdown, with field goals accounting for 12 of those 18 points. Things won’t get easier in Week 9 against the NFC East-leading Washington Commanders. Washington has been extremely stout on defense this season, surrounding 20+ only three times this season and just once in its last five games. Since allowing 30 points in Baltimore three weeks ago, the Commanders coughed up just 22 points combined to the Panthers and Bears. The Commanders already held the Giants to 18 points in Week 2, and now New York is even more beat up and disconnected. Fade the G-Men offense on Sunday.

The Falcons send out a middling run defense with the 12th-most yards and fifth-highest rushing success rate allowed while also ranking 24th in tackle grade per PFF, so I'm anticipating Dallas head coach and play caller Mike McCarthy stubbornly sticking to his guns with the run game again Sunday. Dowdle had double-digit carries in Weeks 4 and 5 as he ascended to being the clear No. 1 rusher before the blowout to the Detriot Lions in Week 6 and missing last week's game with an illness. I’m anticipating Dowdle to return to being the go-to rusher and handle double-digit carries again regardless of his effectiveness.

Hubbard isn't the flashiest running back but he's quietly had a strong season, averaging 82.7 rushing yards per game (on 5.4 yards per carry) since Week 2, with his 523 yards third among all RBs in that span. He and the Carolina Panthers face the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, who have allowed more than 111 rushing yards per game to RBs this year — but have seen that number balloon to 190.8 per game in October, with two teams going for 225+.

Dobbins is 11th in the league with 535 rushing yards. That said, his rushing yards O/U is set at 72.5 this week which is inflated due to rushing for more than 130 yards in back-to-back games at the start of the year. Dobbins has been held below 60 rushing yards in four of his last five contests and he's averaging just 3.16 yards per rush attempt over than span. The Browns lead the league in run stop win rate while limiting opposing running backs to 4.3 yards per attempt. With the Chargers also passing the ball more in recent weeks, it makes sense to fade Dobbins on his rushing yards total.

This is a bounce-back spot for the Bengals against the inferior Raiders. Cincy tops Las Vegas in both offesive and defensive DVOA and PFF grades, and I’m confident Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and the offense can put enough points on the board to pull away from the Raiders and cover this reduced spread. He’s been solid at Paycor Stadium while throwing for 7.8 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions across four games. Vegas QB Gardner Minshew has thrown for a ho-hum 6.8 YPA with seven interceptions and two lost fumbles across his four road games, and the Raiders also rank 26th in points per game (18.0), 27th in offensive DVOA and last in EPA per play.

There’s nothing scary about a date with the Cincy pass defense. The Bengals sport the 10th-lowest quarterback hurry percentage and rank 29th in pass rush grade per PFF while also allowing the 11th-highest EPA per dropback and 12th-most passing yards per game. Meyers is the most talented receiver for Las Vegas, and he returned from a two-game absence last week to catch six of seven targets for 52 yards while playing 80% of the Raiders offensive snaps. I also value Las Vegas heading to Cincinnati as a huge road underdog, and the Raiders likely having it air it out while playing from behind.

This total has my attention after Tucker paced Raiders wide receivers in offensive snaps last week because Las Vegas is set up to be playing from behind as a sizable road underdog in Week 9. The Bengals haven’t been tough against the pass, either. Cincinnati ranks 25th in defensive DVOA while allowing the 11th-highest EPA per dropback and 12th-most passing yards per game. Additionally, the Bengals sport the 10th-lowest quarterback hurry percentage and rank 29th in pass rush grade per PFF. While Tucker’s numbers don’t jump off the page, he's still garnered 11 targets the past two weeks while playing 93.1% of the Las Vegas offensive snaps.

The Patriots may be stuck with veteran QB Jacoby Brissett with rookie Drake Maye suffering a concussion in Week 7. That switch under center shortens this New England offense considerably, with Brissett sitting among the lowest intended and completed air yards per attempt. As for the Titans attack, they might have QB Will Levis back under center but that’s not necessarily a good thing. Tennessee offense is horrible and has scored 17 or fewer points in six of its first seven games. Defensively, the Titans are sound – despite getting torched the past two weeks. Tennessee took on high-powered offenses in Detroit and Buffalo, and now see a major shift in competition against the Pats.

Only two teams give up fewer scrimmage yards than the Broncos. They rank fourth against the pass and seventh against the run, which gives them the tools to be able to slow down the juggernaut Baltimore offense. Denver is 6-2 against the spread this season, while the Ravens are 4-3-1. The Ravens are a great team but they’re inconsistent. The Broncos are riding high and have the tools to be a difficult matchup for Lamar Jackson & Co.

The Chicago Bears shouldn’t be 4-3 SU heading into Week 9 and they sure as shit shouldn’t be coming off a loss. And that means, Chicago shouldn’t be pegged as an underdog against the Arizona Cardinals. Also omitted in the mayhem is the fact that this Chicago defense did what few teams could, and that contains Jayden Daniels and Commanders' offense. Washington’s star rookie, who was playing through a rib injury, was held to 250 passing yards and no touchdowns before the insane final possession. The Bears' defense is disruptive, bringing the third-highest pressure rate, generating the seventh most takeaways, and boasting the stingiest red zone defense in the land (36.84% TD rate allowed).

The Jacksonville Jaguars run man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league but rank in the Bottom 10 of man defenses in yards per coverage snap and completion percentage, while Brown is eighth among all WR in yards (despite missing three games) and first in yards per route run when facing man-to-man coverage. The Philadelphia Eagles star also ranks among the Top 20 in average depth of target and yards after catch per reception, while hauling in at least one catch of 29+ yards in each game (seven 20+ yard catches total).

Stafford saw his two main passing weapons — Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp — return to the field last week. They combined for 157 yards, as Stafford threw for 279, and he's averaged 305 passing yards per game in his last eight contests with both in the lineup. Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams will face the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday, who have allowed opposing QBs to average 264 passing yards per game over the last five weeks, in a game that could be a shootout as it has one of the highest totals of the week.

This is a buyback spot on the Lions offense that has been pumping out the points the past four weeks: 52, 31, 47, 42. They’re averaging 33 points per game. What do all those contests have in common? They were indoors. Detroit venues outside of the first time this season, where possible rain, wind and temperatures in the low 50s wait for them at Lambeau Field. Last year, the Lions averaged just under 19 points in the five outdoor regular season games and have scored more than 27 points only five times in 18 outdoor venues the past three seasons. With Love up in the air, this run-heavy Green Bay attack could be even more ground centric in a game of keepaway from the Lions offense. Lions Under 26.5 points in a key divisional matchup.

Detroit is the hottest team in the conference and just blasted Tennessee by 38 points. The Lions offense is hitting its stride after sputtering to start the schedule, having posted 172 total points in the last four outings. The Packers have won four in a row, but Love left the Week 8 win over Jacksonville with a groin injury and will have an MRI on Monday to confirm the damage. Grabbing the Lions -3.5 is a smart way to stay ahead of any injury news and even if Love does play, you’re still getting Detroit below the undervalued key number of -4.

Over his last eight games dating back to last year with the Browns, the ageless but competent Joe Flacco is averaging 291.5 passing yards, 24.3 completions, and 2.5 passing TDs per game. Those are insane numbers and a reason why the noise to make the switch from Anthony Richardson was so loud following Week 8's loss to the Texans. Flacco has not thrown for fewer than two TDs in any of those eight games (seven starts) and has 20 total passing scores over that stretch.

With Joe Flacco back as QB for the Indianapolis Colts, Downs is again a much more consistent passing option — and he now gets to face a Minnesota Vikings defense that gives up the second-most yards per game to wide receivers (204.9) and has struggled against the opponent's top receiver, allowing 100+ yards to opposing WR1s in five of their last six games — with the exceptions being two Texans receivers getting 94 and 81. Downs has been the go-to guy for the Colts against zone defense this year... and the Vikings play zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the league.