Free Expert Picks and Predictions

Hart’s scoring prop plummeted in Game 3, closing at 8.5 O/U with the spunky shooting guard dropped to the bench. The move is warranted, given Hart’s offensive output. Before this matchup with Indiana, Hart was a key cog in the Knicks’ scoring attack. He averaged 14.5 points against the Celtics in Round 2 and finished Round 1’s series with the Pistons with 11.8 ppg. His scoring prop for Game 4 sits at a postseason low of 7.5 Over/Under (Over -130) but despite the decline, Game 4 models still call for double digits from Hart. Early projections range from 10.8 to 11.7 points with Hart expected to log around 35 minutes. Those same forecasts also predict eight or more rebounds from Hart in Game 4. He snatched 10 boards in Game 3 and has pulled in six and 13 rebounds in the two games prior while averaging 17.0 rebounding chances in the series – second most among all NBA players in the conference finals.

Siakam's rebounding totals have dipped in this series, with five, five and four in the first three games. However, his advanced metrics show an average of 11.0 rebounding chances per game in the ECF and with the Pacers potentially down Aaron Nesmith in Game 4 (game-time decision with an ankle injury), Siakam will be very active on the glass. Player projections range from 6.9 to as many as 8.2 rebounds tonight. My number is 7.47 boards, which should have the Over 5.5 rebounds priced around -263. That takes the sting out of the -145 ask. 

The Pacers are attacking Brunson on both ends of the floor. Blitzing him and picking up full court on defense while head hunting his poor defending when Indiana has the ball. It has Brunson logging a ton of miles through three games. Tired legs lead to shots coming up short and slower feet on defense, which puts Brunson out of position and susceptible to those foul calls we’ve seen in this series. Game 4 player models believe in Indiana’s defensive approach to Brunson and aren’t as bullish on his output as the oddsmakers or the betting public, which has made the Over 29.5 points from Brunson the most popular prop pick for Game 4. All projections consulted are coming in short of the 29.5-point total with forecats ranging from 24.8 to 28 points. My number at 26.2 points. Given that expectation, the Under 29.5 points from Brunson should lug a price tag around -210 but you can find it at +108.

Tanner Bibee has been a very solid starter for the Cleveland Guardians since coming up to the big leagues in 2023. This season, he’s 4-4 with a 3.57 ERA in 10 starts, striking out 43 in 58 innings of work while walking only 18. The righty is consistent week in and week out. In 23 at-bats, L.A. has compiled a .304 average against Bibee. In one career start versus the defending World Series champions, Bibee held them to two earned runs across five frames. Also, the right-hander is lights out at Progressive Field, compiling a 1.46 ERA in 2025 in four appearances. He’s only surrendered four earned runs in over 24 innings on his home mound. Bibee will keep the Dodgers at bay in the second game of this series.

Corbin Burnes has been on top of his game, allowing five combined earned runs across his last five starts (31 1/3 IP). Pittsburgh’s anemic offense ranks second-last in both wOBA (.289) and wRC+ (79) against right-handed pitching. Failing to score runs makes it hard to win baseball games, so, unsurprisingly, the Pirates have one lonely win in their last 12 road games. They’re just 6-20 away from PNC Park this season.

Connor McDavid has produced 22 points through 14 playoff games, which is a higher per-game pace than he posted during the regular season. He's done his best work on home ice, recording multiple points in four of six games in Edmonton, tallying 11 total points. That’s just under two per game. He feasted on the Stars in Game 3, scoring his first two goals of the series while being on the ice for three Edmonton markers.

Mikko Rantanen was an unstoppable force for the first chunk of the playoffs but he’s suddenly gone quiet. He has produced just two points over his last five games and has failed to find the back of the net in six consecutive games. The good news for Rantanen: the dry spell is not a byproduct of a lack of opportunity. He leads all Stars players in scoring chances (18) during this drought and has recorded 30 shot attempts, good for an average of five per game. Rantanen is one of the best pure finishers in the sport. If he’s getting chances, they’re going to start finding the net. For as well as Stuart Skinner has played of late, it’s also worth remembering he posted an .891 save percentage over 51 games in the regular season. It’s not as if he’s untouchable.

Leon Draisaitl is priced with the lowest odds of any goalscorer in this game, and for good reason. He has scored in more than half of his games this year and has potted more 5-on-5 goals in the playoffs than all but Mikko Rantanen, who has a couple of extra appearances to his credit. Draisaitl has gone back-to-back games without scoring. That is an eternity for Draisaitl. Believe it or not, he has only gone more than two straight games without a goal twice all year long. That is downright insane over an 85-game stretch. He is as consistent as they come and ranks second among all players in scoring chances in this series. Look for him to make one count in Game 4.

The Eagles bring the best roster in the league into Week 1, fresh off dismantling Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Dallas, on the other hand, will be getting its first real reps under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer and a retooled staff. Philadelphia not only has the fire power to clear this touchdown spread but this vaunted Philly pass rush – that was the key to containing Patrick Mahomes & Co. in New Orleans – goes up against a revamped Cowboys offensive line with plenty of new pieces. Dallas doesn’t have much of a ground game and will be dropping back a lot, with Dak Prescott pressing to CeeDee Lamb and new WR George Pickens. Philadelphia is able to get pressure without the blitz and will plug up the passing lanes of this Cowboys attack. I'm grabbing this short of the key number of a touchdown and expect this to be above -7 come gameday on September 4.

This AFC West rivalry heads to South America for a Friday game in Brazil. Recent clashes between the Chiefs and Bolts have been snoozefests, with combined scores of 36, 27, and 25 points in the last three encounters. The Chargers will continue to anchor their attack in the run under Jim Harbaugh, facing a talented Kansas City defense led by DC Steve Spagnuolo. Week 1 usually favors the defense, as offenses are working out the kinks. I’ll lean Under in the first international showcase.

The first Sunday Night Football of the season is a barn burner and a potential AFC Championship pairing. The Bills got the best of the Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round last January, thanks in part to Mark Andrews’ infamous dropped 2-point convert. The 27-25 win for Buffalo pushed with the closing total of 52 points. This Week 1 number opened just shy of that Over/Under, without the intensity or deep film study of the postseason. With Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and a slew of talented weapons, I like the Over 51.5 points in this SNF showdown.

The Iowa State Cyclones were the runners-up in the Big 12 last year, but they'll be trying to get back to the conference championship game without receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who combined for nearly 2,400 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. The Cyclones' rush defense was abysmal last year, and while that issued was addressed in the offseason, it will take some time for this unit to gel. Kansas State Wildcats RBs Dylan Edwards and Gabe Ervin Jr. (Nebraska transfer) could have themselves a day in Dublin. 

Yes, Stanford is the Power Four team. Yes, Stanford expected to return more of its 2024 production. And yes, Hawai'i went only 3-7 last year against FBS competition. But when Andrew Luck fired Troy Taylor in late March, a Cardinal exodus began. That becomes a one-way migration, nearly all possible incoming transfers already off the market. There is a reason teams with late coaching changes went 24-40-1 ATS to start last season. This roster attrition costs programs in ways math cannot quickly catch up with. Doubt Stanford early in 2025. And trust Timmy Chang to actively know what the spread is. He has been vocal about that in recent years.

Boise State was the Ashton Jeanty show last year, but quarterback Maddux Madsen deserves some praise as well for getting the Broncos into the CFP. He completed 247 of 396 passes (62.4%) for 3,018 yards and 23 touchdowns with only six interceptions. South Florida's pass defense is ripe for the picking, with this unit ranking 133rd in yards allowed per game through the air last season (291.8). The Bulls went 0-5 when allowing the opposition to complete at least 60% of its throws.

The Dallas Wings have come close, but have yet to secure their first win of the season. That changes tonight, and it will be exactly what they need to get in the winning groove. The Wings have shown that they can indeed be competitive with three of their last four matchups being decided by a single-digit margin. With a completely new starting lineup, the Sun haven't quite figured out how to overcome the challenges of what they have lost, and another disadvantage they'll have to face is Dijonai Carrington, who spent her first four seasons with Connecticut. Any juice that the Sun have left, Carrington is sure to have the answer to in order for Dallas to have the upper hand. Besides Carrington, the Wings are led by Arike Ogunbowale, Paige Bueckers, and Maddy Siegrist, which will be a lot for a veteran like Tina Charles to manage and outscore.

Injuries have Golden State shuffling its lineup with Tiffany Hayes and Monique Billings both questionable for this road game against the Liberty tonight. That could leave the Valkyries soft on the boards and facing a dominant rebounder in Jonquel Jones. The former MVP is projected for closer to 10 rebounds tonight and has pulled down double-digit rebounds in two of her three games this season. Some books have adjusted this rebounding total to 9.5 with strong opinion on the Over. 

Sure, Sabrina Ionescu’s 8-for-20 shooting line against the Fever on Saturday was far from efficient, but she was aggressive and willing to fire her way into form. With her averaging 18.2 PPG during the 2024 regular season, this 16.5 O/U number feels too low — and I’m jumping on the Over at slight plus-money odds.

It’s surprising to see Sepp Straka with odds this long, considering he’s won twice on the PGA Tour this season and finished T5 in the Memorial while gaining true strokes across the board last year. Straka’s game is dialed in, too. He’s eighth in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and driving accuracy dating back to his January win in the American Express. I also particularly appreciate Straka ranking second on approach and 14th in putting during the run. It doesn’t end there, either. He's fourth in adjusted scoring average, second in birdie-or-better percentage, and fifth in bogey avoidance on Tour this season.

The Canadian continues to play competitive golf and has seven Top 25s across his past eight events, which also includes four Top 10s. Corey Conners finished T20 in the 2024 Memorial, and his stats pop. He's gained true strokes across the board, including ranking third in this field in tee-to-green play, third in driving accuracy, 10th on approach, and 15th in putting during the noted eight-tournament run. I also value the two-time PGA Tour winner ranking 25th in adjusted scoring average on Tour for the year.

Don’t sleep on Tony Finau this week. This will be his ninth trip to Muirfield Village, and he has five Top 15s, including his T8 last year while gaining true strokes across the board. He's also gained true strokes across the board in consecutive events with a T15-T19 run to respectably rank 12th in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach. The building momentum is encouraging because his last win came all the way back in April 2023 at the Mexico Open. There have been five Top 5s since for the six-time PGA Tour winner.