Free Expert Picks and Predictions

As bad as the Browns are, 17.5 is a huge spread to be betting against, especially when there are still some difference-makers on defense. The fact this game is taking place in Week 18 might save the Browns blushes, with Cleveland not getting heavily beaten on by their divisional rivals. The Ravens will win, there’s no doubt about that, but we know the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed locked up. Once the Ravens are a couple of scores up, why would they risk Lamar Jackson and their best playmakers? It’s hard to see the motivation for the Ravens to finish the game with the players who started it. Expect to see plenty of rushing and some backups on the field late.

This Bengals resurgence has been led by the offense, with the defense ranked fourth from bottom in DVOA. For context, no other team with a defense in the bottom 10 in terms of DVOA is even in contention at this stage. That speaks to the quality of what their offense is doing and in particular Joe Burrow. He’s having a truly elite season in nearly every metric, and is on a tear, throwing three or more touchdown passes in eight straight games. A matchup against the Steelers is the last piece of the playoff jigsaw that they can impact and you better believe the Bengals will come into this game hungrier and more motivated than the Steelers.

This is the highest total of the season but I'm still leaning towards the Over. There have previously been five games this year (with Detroit playing in four of them) with totals at 53 or above and the Over is 4-1 in those contests. The Lions lead the league with 33.3 ppg and with QB Jared Goff thriving against the blitz, he will pick apart a blitz-happy Vikings defense. That said, Minnesota will also put up points against an injury-plagued Lions stop unit. The Lions have given up more than 30 points in three of their last four games and they surrendered 29 points when these teams previously clashed. The Vikings have scored 27+ points in five of their last six games. Minnesota is fifth in the NFL in dropback success rate and All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson has made a habit of torching Detroit's secondary. 

Jeremiyah Love has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season and notched multiple touchdowns in three of his last six games. This is arguably the most-talented Notre Dame roster of the last 15 years, and yet it is only Love that would assuredly start for Georgia. He has the speed to leave the Bulldogs grasping at air, and the Irish offensive line knows how to get him into space to show off that speed. Seeing Love at plus-money to cross the goal line creates a must-bet. Perhaps he doesn’t do so, but that will not invalidate the value of this number. Notre Dame’s best player should score in its biggest game of the year, simply enough.

Expect Georgia to deflate the ball early to ease QB Gunner Stockton into the moment, a first-time starter as a junior. Sure, he should have a thorough understanding of the playbook, but that further condemns his showing in the second half of the SEC title game, averaging 4.4 yards per pass attempt. No one in the country has had a better passing defense this season than the Irish, ranking No. 1 in both defensive dropback success rate and in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against. It is hard to imagine Stockton finding passing success against Notre Dame. At that point, the Bulldogs should pivot into a ground-based offense and a shortened game.

Faison was initially battling injuries for much of the first half of the season, but he’s healthy now and has hauled in 19 catches for 250 yards over the last six games. The biggest of which came in the first-round matchup against the Hoosiers, notching seven catches for 89 yards, including that 43-yard strike from Leonard. Georgia ranks a middling 44th in success rate on dropbacks this season. Faison has a receiving yards prop sitting at 31.5, a number he’s eclipsed three times over this six-game stretch, and I like him to do it again in this matchup against Georgia.

The Lightning should do the bulk of the work to carry this Over on Thursday night. The Sharks will turn to either the struggling Alexandar Georgiev or the inexperienced Yaroslav Askarov in net in this one. They'll be tasked with slowing down a Tampa offense that averages 4.12 goals per game on the road, buoyed by a potent power play that fires at a 34% clip. San Jose is killing a dismal 76.2% of penalties at home this season. The Sharks should not go home empty-handed, as their offensive numbers perk up slightly in their own barn, while the Bolts' numbers slip as the visitors.