Free Expert Picks and Predictions

Mostert has recorded double-digit receiving yards in three of his four games with five receptions for 39 yards on seven targets. While he’s splitting carries with backfield mate De'Von Achane, Mostert is still plenty involved in the Miami offense, including playing 47% of the offensive snaps and running 17 routes during the Week 8 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. It’s also not a nightmare matchup with the Bills surrendering a healthy 6.58 yards per target to opposing running backs. 

Derek Carr coming back which is good for Olave, who is coming off a big day in Week 8 but couldn’t crack the end zone and has only one TD this season. Perfect remedy to that, play the Panthers who top the NFC in passing touchdowns allowed, second worst RZ TD%, and a big drop off in defensive opposition compared the NOLA’s recent foes. Fellow WR Bub Means questionable with an ankle, could mean more looks to Olave, who has had success finding the end zone against the Panthers in past seasons.

Denver has built its surprise 5-3 SU record on the backs of bad teams, but let’s not discount what defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is doing. The Broncos rate No. 1 in EPA allowed per play, No. 3 in opponent success rate per play, and No. 5 in Defensive DVOA at FTN. Those advanced metrics strip back the strength of schedule and grade each team on an even plane. Baltimore turns into the pumpkin after the 45-minute mark, getting outscored 93-59 in the final frame this season. That’s led to blown covers as a big favorite, which the Ravens just so happen to be in Week 9. Baltimore has been a bad, bad bet when laying the lumber in recent seasons, boasting a soul-crushing 1-11-1 ATS record when set as a favorite of a touchdown or more since 2021.

Against Nebraska last week, Ohio St. ran for just 74 yards on 29 carries. Another performance like that and Ohio St. could again struggle on third downs, going just 1-of-10 last week. Penn St. is far better at defending the pass than Nebraska is. If Ohio St. again cannot run the ball, its passing game will suffer. Meanwhile, Penn St. QB Drew Allar left the win at Wisconsin with a seeming leg injury. James Franklin could not be less informative about Allar’s health, but he was seen practicing on Wednesday. Most likely, Allar plays but is not entirely mobile. If Ohio St.’s No.1 SP+ ranked defense knows he is limited in any regard, its job will be that much easier.

Virginia Tech has shown an excellent ability to run the ball this year, averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the year. Bhayshul Tuten has 14 total touchdowns on top of his 951 yards rushing and and should be where the Hokies focus their attack on Saturday. I fully expect the Hokies, who run the ball 37.5 times per game, to run the ball against this banged-up Syracuse front and dominate from kickoff to the final whistle.

Howard has rushed for five touchdowns this season in seven games. He is now facing a stout defensive line and Ohio State has a significant concern on its offensive line with starting left tackle Josh Simmons out for the season and his backup Zen Michalski at best injured last week and at worst simply ineffective. But that actually creates value on Howard scoring again. The Buckeyes can devote a running back to helping set an edge while Howard presses toward the goal line. This prop probably had value regardless. But Ohio State’s offensive worry at the moment emphasizes Howard’s dual-threat ability.

Heiskanen generated two shots on five attempts in the mini-series opener against the Panthers. What that doesn’t show is he also had a couple of shots that were deflected in front and counted for others. The opportunities were there. With the Stars considered the ‘home’ team in Game 1, head coach Pete DeBoer was able to use the last change to his advantage and get Heiskanen a lot of ice time against Florida’s top line. He won’t have such luxury in Game 2, meaning Heiskanen probably won’t play as much against Florida’s top players. Easier minutes seem to benefit Heiskanen in his effort to generate shots. He has attempted 6.1 shots per game over his last 20 road games, which is a notable difference from the 5.4 he produced over that same span at home. 

These teams combined for 932 yards and 68 points in messy weather in Week 14 before totalling 876 yards and 69 points in Week 20. The Redblacks have struggled defensively away from home all year, allowing 32.9 ppg on the road. They were also torched down the stretch, allowing 324 passing yards per game and 9.9 yards per pass attempt over their final eight contests. That's bad news against an up-tempo Argos attack led by Chad Kelly who averaged 306.4 passing yards per game and 9.5 ypa. On defense, the Argos were second-last in the CFL in opponent pass efficiency (105.5) and allowed a league-high 36 pass completions of 30+ yards. They could give up big chunk plays to Ottawa QB Dru Brown and an explosive Redblacks aerial attack featuring Justin Hardy and Dominique Rhymes.

The Lions have a ton of talent, especially on offense, but they aren't built for playoff football. They have the worst offensive line in the league, turn the ball over too much and struggle on defense where they rank last in the CFL in opponent pass efficiency (107.2). The Riders are led by Trevor Harris who leads the league in pass efficiency (108.4). They also have the superior offensive line and defense while boasting a league-best turnover margin of +26. In a playoff game, I'll gladly back the side that's better in the trenches and on defense. Especially since Mosaic Stadium provides one of the best home-field advantages in the sport and the Riders destroyed the Lions 39-8 on this field just three weeks ago.