Free Expert Picks and Predictions

Banchero relies on a bounty of trips to the free throw line for scoring, hitting 6.1 free throws per game to help him average 25.9 points. A playoff whistle may diminish those chances. Secondly, if doubting the full-game total of 217, then it should be trusted no one will score more than 30 points. Lastly, Orlando’s bread-and-butter is its defense. The Magic defensive rating stands at No. 2 on the season, No. 3 since the All-Star Break and No. 1 in the last month. Orlando needs to focus on its defensive efforts to avoid a win-or-go-home second Play-In game. Banchero is a piece of that. More energy spent defensively should come at the expense of his offensive production.

Banchero cleared this prop in three of his last four games and in seven of his last 14. On a normal night, this would be in line with expectations. But the presumed offensive struggles in the Play-In Tournament elevate those expectations, as do Banchero’s abilities in more meaningful games. While he reached nine or more rebounds in only two of his seven playoff games last year, he snagged 16 in Game 7, he reached eight boards in two more of those first-round tests, and he has improved as a rebounder this year. He snagged 7.5 boards per game this season compared to 6.9 a year ago, increased his per 36 minutes average by 0.8 rebounds and jumped his total rebounding rate to 12.5% from 11.6%.

Onyeka Okongwu will not repeat his 30-point performance from a week ago vs. Orlando. He went 9-of-17 from the field and 4-of-7 from deep. His overall FG% was not an outlier, but going 57.1% from deep as a 32.4% 3-point shooter this season was rather absurd. Mostly, Okongwu will not take that many shots, not when his season average was 9.2 attempts per game, not when this game has a total nine points lower than that one did and not when his workload will be less than that 40-minute showing. Play-In games are played with elimination-game intensity. 11 of the 16 to open Play-In competition have gone Under their totals. Role players should not be expected to outperform their norms.

There is a lot of wind at Great American Ballpark today, with 15-mph winds blowing out to left field, but Cincinnati Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball through three starts and can work his way around the gusts vs. the Seattle Mariners. The lefty has gone 18+ outs in each of his starts and hasn't needed to throw more than 87 pitches. He has given up just 12 hits over those 18+ innings and could miss more bats than usual vs. Seattle. The Mariners are bad vs. left-handed pitching, striking out at a 30% clip on the season and ranking 22nd in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA. It might not be a good setting to pitch, but Lodolo is going to miss some bats today and continue getting deep into games.

Jesus Luzardo has 25 strikeouts in 18 innings through three starts, and tonight's outing against the Giants presents another opportunity for the left-hander to flex his muscles. The Giants are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league this season. They average the fourth-most Ks per game at 9.63, including 10.80 on the road. Additionally, San Francisco can't hit a lick vs. southpaws, batting .194 against LHP this season.

Cleveland and Baltimore both enter Tuesday's tilt after an off day, which means the bullpens will be rested. The Guardians have the Orioles outgunned there, ranking fourth by ERA (2.25) vs. 12th (3.58). Cleveland also has the starting pitching battle won on paper with Logan Allen going against Charlie Morton. Allen was roughed up by the red-hot Padres in his first start since last August but bounced back vs. the feeble White Sox. The O's enter this one ranked 16th by OPS overall, and that falls to 24th when just facing lefties like Allen. Morton is looking every bit his 41 years at 0-3 with an 8.38 ERA. The Guardians' offense won't "wow" anyone, but this unit will do just enough to reward underdog backers.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be highly motivated in Buffalo tonight with a chance to clinch the division title with a win. After years of struggles against this underdog Buffalo Sabres squad, Toronto appears to have finally cracked the code on Buffalo going  2-0 against them this season and now looks for the series sweep tonight. However, despite the ups and downs over the years, there has been one Maple Leaf that has consistently dominated Buffalo, and that’s Mitch Marner. Buffalo is coming off a game in which they surrendered seven goals to the playoff-bound Tampa Bay Lightning. So, there should be ample opportunity for the Buds to muster up some offense and for Marner to find his way on the scoresheet.

Chicago has been the worst team in hockey over the past two months, ranking last in expected goals for percentage (xGF%). This ranking stems from its inability to generate high danger scoring chances and suppress them at the other end of the ice. Over that same stretch, the Blackhawks are last in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). The Senators outrank them in both categories. Ottawa will also have the goaltending advantage, with Anton Forsberg boasting a superior SV% and GAA over Spencer Knight. 

Chicago has been the worst team in hockey over the past two months, ranking last in expected goals for percentage (xGF%). This ranking stems from its inability to generate high danger scoring chances and suppress them at the other end of the ice. Over that same stretch, the Blackhawks are last in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). The Senators outrank them in both categories. Ottawa will also have the goaltending advantage, with Anton Forsberg boasting a superior SV% and GAA over Spencer Knight. 

Alex Smalley has consistently played well at Corales Golf Course with a T6 and T2 in his past two trips, and he’s ripe for a rebound tournament after failing to play the weekend in each of his past three events. The 28-year-old American also impressed to start the 2025 season, with five Top 20s in seven events while gaining true strokes across the board, including gaining +1.54 from tee-to-green to rank first in this field during the heater.

With five Top 5s in the RBC Heritage, Patrick Cantlay has been a force at Harbour Town. He’s gained true strokes on approach in each of his past three trips and heads to the 2025 event gaining true strokes on approach in six consecutive tournaments to rank fifth in the metric in this field during the run. He struggled around the greens at Augusta National to finish T36 in the Masters, which gives us a much friendlier number this week. He was in the +1600 range ahead of last year’s tournament, after all.

It was a disappointing Masters for Russell Henley, and he missed his first cut in over a calendar year. Still, the five-time PGA Tour winner shot a second-round 68 while ranking fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and third on approach. I’m not going to knock him too heavily for a single poor round in a major championship, and he's had success at Harbour Town with consecutive Top 20s. He’s also gained true strokes on approach in four consecutive trips to this event.