Free Expert Picks and Predictions

Jerome is coming off a season-high 20 FGAs with 21 points in Game 1 vs. Indiana. His activity and floor time could change in Game 2 if Darius Garland returns. Despite that chance, Jerome’s Game 2 scoring prop is at 14.5 points O/U, which is the same number from the previous two outings without Garland on the floor. While the status of Cleveland’s all-star guard is still up in the air, there’s a good chance he suits up Tuesday night. Early player projections – with Garland in action – have Jerome pegged for around 12 points over 21 minutes of play. Looking at the initial market movement on his scoring prop, Under 14.5 points opened around -130 at sharper books and has now climbed to -155 with money getting out ahead of the Garland updates. You can find this Under 14.5 option priced at -120 at bet365 – a bet that could blow up in my face should Garland sit out again.

Jimmy Butler cannot hide from the Target Center crowd this time, something he has done four out of six times since abandoning Minnesota. In the two games he played in front of a full Timberwolves crowd, Butler has averaged 14 points on 35% shooting. This goes beyond the Timberwolves. In eight revenge spots at his abandoned franchises — including the 76ers and a Heat game in March, but excluding a pandemic-altered game in Minneapolis in 2021 — Butler has averaged 17.25 points on 48% shooting including 18% from beyond the arc. He has skipped 11 other possible games in Minnesota or Philadelphia. Narratives believe Jimmy Butler is a ruthless competitor. Reality has long shown something else.

I'm not willing to get in front of the freight train that is the Los Angeles Dodgers. They boast one of the best offenses in the league and now get to face a bad pitcher in Cal Quantrill. Quantrill has pitched to an 8.10 ERA and has been hit hard in every start this season. Give me the Dodgers here on the run line. 

I don't believe in Cade Povich as an MLB pitcher. He's been hit hard over his last four appearances, and I don't think a road start here vs. the Twins is a spot he can pitch well in. The Twins have a bit of momentum on their side after taking two of three in Boston, and now have Pablo Lopez for them. He should be able to limit the O's and get enough run support to pick up the win. 

Another matchup here with a pitching matchup I look to exploit. Justin Verlander has struggled through the early exchanges, and going up against the top offense in the Majors is a bad proposition. I expect the Cubs' hot bats to stay hot after putting up nine on Monday. Give me the home side at a cheap price. 

I’m chalking Corey Conners finishing T49 in the RBC Heritage up to a Masters letdown following his T8 at Augusta National. It was the Canadian’s sixth consecutive Top 25, including a solo third at the Arnold Palmer and three more Top 10s. Conners impressively gained true strokes across the board during the six-tourney run with ranks of third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 15th in true strokes gained putting, and fifth in driving accuracy.

The first PGA Tour win is coming for Tommy Fleetwood, and he’s played the weekend in 18 consecutive worldwide events while ranking fourth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and third on approach. He’s also carded seven Top-10 finishes along the way, including his solo seventh in the loaded-field RBC Heritage. He's also gained true strokes on the greens in five of his past seven events, and with the ball-striking doing the heavy lifting, he’ll be right there on Sunday if he rolls it well again this week.

Sami Valimaki is stringing together a solid start to the 2025 PGA Tour season and paces this field in total strokes gained dating back to his T15 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. He’s carded three more Top-20 finishes along the way, including a tidy solo-fourth at the Houston Open. Valimaki also ranks fifth in this field in true strokes gained on approach and eighth in putting, and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be detrimental at Dunes Golf and Beach Club.