College Football Picks

Jeremiyah Love has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season and notched multiple touchdowns in three of his last six games. This is arguably the most-talented Notre Dame roster of the last 15 years, and yet it is only Love that would assuredly start for Georgia. He has the speed to leave the Bulldogs grasping at air, and the Irish offensive line knows how to get him into space to show off that speed. Seeing Love at plus-money to cross the goal line creates a must-bet. Perhaps he doesn’t do so, but that will not invalidate the value of this number. Notre Dame’s best player should score in its biggest game of the year, simply enough.

Expect Georgia to deflate the ball early to ease QB Gunner Stockton into the moment, a first-time starter as a junior. Sure, he should have a thorough understanding of the playbook, but that further condemns his showing in the second half of the SEC title game, averaging 4.4 yards per pass attempt. No one in the country has had a better passing defense this season than the Irish, ranking No. 1 in both defensive dropback success rate and in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against. It is hard to imagine Stockton finding passing success against Notre Dame. At that point, the Bulldogs should pivot into a ground-based offense and a shortened game.

Faison was initially battling injuries for much of the first half of the season, but he’s healthy now and has hauled in 19 catches for 250 yards over the last six games. The biggest of which came in the first-round matchup against the Hoosiers, notching seven catches for 89 yards, including that 43-yard strike from Leonard. Georgia ranks a middling 44th in success rate on dropbacks this season. Faison has a receiving yards prop sitting at 31.5, a number he’s eclipsed three times over this six-game stretch, and I like him to do it again in this matchup against Georgia.

Notre Dame enters this quarterfinals matchup leading the nation in both EPA per dropback and defensive success rate on dropbacks. What makes the Irish so scary is a secondary that can man up on the outside, particularly against a group of Georgia pass-catchers that lacks explosive playmakers. That will allow defensive coordinator Al Golden to scheme up some crazy blitz packages to confuse an inexperienced quarterback. Expect Georgia to counteract those blitzes and inexperience by running the football, and that will add up to limited passing yards for Stockton. Give me the Under.

Dual-threat QBs have been a problem for Georgia's defense. Haynes King rumbled for 110 yards and three scores in Georgia Tech's near upset of the Bulldogs, Mississippi's Jaxson Dart rushed for 50 when the Rebels beat Georgia in November, and Jalen Milroe went for 117 and two scores back in their September shootout. Leonard is good enough to be effective on the ground in this matchup, and this is a great price to back him to find paydirt yet again. 

Duke did not really have an offensive identity this season. The best thing that can be said for the Blue Devils’ offense is that it occasionally found an explosive rush. Which brings us to the bad news, Mississippi’s defense is excellent. It ranks No. 2 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against. The Rebels’ offense can be trusted to do the things Lane Kiffin usually likes to do, even against an impressive Duke defense. Jaxson Dart has said he will play in this game, a 2024 trend that reflects bettered NIL contracts. If he can connect on just a few scores, that should be more than enough to cover this number given how ineffective the Blue Devils’ offense will be.

Don’t expect a big drop-off from Texas State offensively. Head coach G.J. Kinne is an offensive guru whose team averaged 37.1 ppg while ranking 16th in success rate. There should be openings galore against a faulty North Texas defense that surrendered a whopping 34.5 ppg and allowed 456.6 total yards per game on 6.1 yards per play. North Texas’ offense faces an uncertain near future in this game, but Eric Morris is an “offense-first, offense-second” kind of head coach and will likely have a plan in place. Texas State allows too many big plays (107th in explosiveness) and will be without a few starters against one of the most explosive offenses in the country. There should be plenty of pace in this game as North Texas ranks third in tempo while Texas State isn’t far behind at 27th.