Oakmont Country Club might be the toughest test in golf. Hell, oddsmakers have set the total winning score of the 2025 US Open at 278.5, meaning a score of 2-under would cash the Under.
It’s a course where the big bombers like Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, and Rory McIlroy should have an advantage. They’re the favorites for a reason, but it could also be the great equalizer and give someone father down the U.S. Open odds board a shot.
Here are my longshot golf picks for the third major championship of the season.
2025 U.S. Open longshot picks
- Conners to win outright (+6000 at DraftKings)
- Hovland to win outright (+6000 at DraftKings)
Picks were made on 6-10 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
U.S. Open longshot predictions
Longshot pick to win: Corey Conners
+6000 at DraftKings
Oakmont Country Club has tight fairways, long rough, and is littered with bunkers. Theoretically, the big bombers have an edge, typically being able to clear the first level of bunkers, but if you’re not controlling your driver and ending up in the rough, you're going to fall behind. So, striking it well off the tee is a must.
Strokes gained off the tee is the first stat I’m looking at this weekend, and that has me looking at Corey Conners.
Now, you might say, you don’t think about driving when you hear the Canadian's name; you think of his ball striking and great iron play. He ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee, so he’s capable of keeping the ball in the fairway and then attacking the large greens at Oakmont.
He’s also in great form. He’s finished T27 or better in 10 of his last 11 tournaments, including a T6 at THE PLAYERS and a T8 at the Masters. He also ranks sixth in this U.S. Open field in strokes gained off the tee over the last three months.
He's playing much better than most of the other players in this price range. This would be an incredibly difficult track for Conners to claim his first major title, but you can definitely see how he'd get there.
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Longshot pick to win: Viktor Hovland
+6000 at DraftKings
Now, Viktor Hovland does not check the boxes like Corey Conners does. This is a situation where I just perceive his value to be better than what the sportsbooks are offering.
Hovland is such an interesting case. The 27-year-old’s ceiling is probably the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world. However, he’s a big tinkerer and just like you and me, he goes through long stretches of admittedly not knowing where the ball is going.
Take a look at this season, for example. Hovland missed the cut at THE PLAYERS and then won his very next tournament at the Valspar Championship. Since then, he’s kind of been ho-hum, playing just five tournaments. Those include a T21 at the Masters and a T28 at the PGA Championship.
He hasn’t been great off the tee lately, but still above field average and ranks a solid 21st in total strokes gained over the last three months. And remember, this is a guy who finished 13th in strokes gained off the tee in 2024.
Hovland feels like the ultimate risk-reward play this week. And at this price point, I feel like he’s worth the risk.
