Round 3 of the 2023 U.S. Open is now in the books as the course continues to play tougher as the tournament rolls on. Currently, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark hold a one-stroke lead over the rest of the field at 10-under.
We’re in for a treat on Sunday in what’s likely a four-man race between Clark, Fowler, Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler. Below, I look ahead at the current U.S. Open odds and give you my best U.S. Open picks for the fourth round.
U.S. Open Round 4 picks
Picks made on 6/16/2023 at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best 2023 U.S. Open Round 4 picks
Shane Lowry over Tony Finau (+115)
For our final live bet of this tremendously entertaining tournament, we’re going to back Shane Lowry to beat Tony Finau in the head-to-head market on Sunday. Currently, Finau is T15 at 1-under while Lowry sits one stroke back at T20.
However, despite Finau’s better standing on the leaderboard, these two guys are trending in opposite directions entering the final round. Finau got off to a red-hot start on Thursday, shooting a 68 to propel himself up the leaderboard.
Regressing in both rounds since Thursday, he followed that up with a 69 on Friday and 72 on Saturday. This regression was predictable given his poor underlying metrics, and further regression is likely on Sunday.
Currently, Finau ranks 34th or lower amongst the remaining field in strokes gained putting, greens in regulation percentage, driving accuracy, and strokes gained off the tee. While his irons have been good-not-great, this course has rewarded the better drivers and putters through the first three rounds.
Meanwhile, Lowry has improved with each round that this tournament has progressed. After a tough start and shooting 72 on Thursday, he responded with a 70 on Friday and 68 on Saturday.
Speaking of putting and driving, Lowry currently ranks 13th among the remaining field in strokes gained putting and 15th in strokes gained off the tee.
Finishing major tournaments has always been an issue for Finau, something that could occur once again on Sunday. In fact, he hasn’t finished better than T15 in any of his past eight major championship appearances.
On the other hand, Lowry is a guy who always seems to elevate his game in majors, in similar spirit to Brooks Koepka (albeit with far less success). Lowry has finished inside the T16 in five of his past nine major championship appearances.
Best odds: Shane Lowry over Tony Finau (+115 at DraftKings – 0.5 units)
