The PGA Tour checks down for a second consecutive stop in the Lone Star State, and Ludvig Aberg and Tommy Fleetwood are the betting favorites at the top of the Valero Texas Open odds lists.
My top sleeper and longshot golf picks for the event are looking further down the list and headlined by rolling PGA Tour returnee Bud Cauley.
Valero Texas Open sleeper picks
- Kim to win outright (+3700 at bet365)
- Cauley to win outright (+5500 at FanDuel)
- Homa to win outright (+12500 at Caesars)
Picks were made on 3-31 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Valero Texas Open sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Si Woo Kim
+3700 at bet365
If Si Woo Kim didn’t miss the cut at the Houston Open, we’d be landing a much shorter number. He putted poorly last week, and it was also the first time he failed to play the weekend in five consecutive events. He finished Top 25 in four of those five, too.
Kim gained true strokes across the board to fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the noted five-tournament stretch. This will also be his eighth trip to this event, and he’s played the weekend in each of the past six, including finishing T4 in the 2019 edition.
The four-time PGA Tour winner is mispriced considering his tee-to-green consistency and solid track record at TPC San Antonio.
Sleeper pick to win: Bud Cauley
+5500 at FanDuel
What a return it’s been for Bud Cauley, and he heads to San Antonio following consecutive Top 10s at THE PLAYERS and Valspar. The solid play has longer legs, too.
In addition to ranking third in adjusted scoring average this season, Cauley has gained true strokes across the board over his past 10 events, which includes ranking eighth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green. He also finished second in the metric at the Valspar.
This will be his seventh trip to TPC San Antonio, too, and Cauley carded a T18 in his 2012 debut and T10 in 2017. He also made the cut last year with a respectable T39 given he was just working his way back from a laundry list of injuries that cost him multiple seasons on Tour.
Sleeper pick to win: Max Homa
+12500 at Caesars
Make no mistake, there are no good signs from any part of Max Homa’s game right now. He’s missed four consecutive cuts and has logged one Top-20 worldwide finish since his T8 at Wells Fargo last May.
Still, this is a six-time PGA Tour winner, and Homa did finish T25 in this event last year while gaining true strokes across the board. He’s also sat out the past two weeks since failing to play the weekend at THE PLAYERS.
His odds are long enough into flier territory to sprinkle, and Homa wouldn’t be the first player to pull off an out-of-nowhere return to top form to contend.
