Team USA has run over all challengers en route to the IIHF World Junior Championship semifinals, and they’re a significant favorite in the World Junior odds to beat Finland.
The Americans have lived up to their pre-tournament billing with a plus-25 goal differential, while the Finns were on the brink of playing in the relegation game following consecutive losses to start round-robin play.
Finland rebounded with overtime wins against the hometown Swedes and a quarterfinal victory over Slovakia. Are the Finns live for a third consecutive upset, or will the Americans punch their ticket to play for gold?
Find out in our WJC picks and predictions for USA vs. Finland on January 4.
USA vs Finland odds
 USA |
Finland  |
|
|---|---|---|
| -222 | 3-way (regular time) | +425 |
| +400 | Tie | +400 |
| -1.5 (-133) | Spread | +1.5 (+105) |
| Over 6.5 (+140) | Total (regular time) | Under 6.5 (-189) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction as of January 2, 2024.
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USA vs Finland picks and predictions
The Americans are loaded with talent and have tallied up a tournament-high 36 goals through five games. It’s the scoring depth that will be the biggest challenge for Finland.
All 20 U.S. players have marked the scoresheet and only two of 13 forwards haven’t found the back of the net. Of course, one is Frank Nazar, whose eight assists rank second on the club.
It’s a similar story on defense for the red, white, and blue. Three returnees (Lane Hutson, Ryan Chesley, and Seamus Casey) are manning the point, and six of the seven blueliners have been drafted to the NHL in the past two years. The lone wolf is draft-eligible Zeev Buium, and he’s logged the third-most minutes through five games (18:55 per) while putting up a pair of goals and assists for the Americans.
While head coach David Carle hasn’t announced the U.S. starting netminder, Trey Augustine is a returnee and won a gold medal at the 2023 IIHF Under-18 Men's World Championship, and Jacob Fowler won the 2022 World Junior A Challenge. Suffice it to say, either netminder is short on international experience.
The Finns may be a finicky underdog that has a history of relishing in the upset role, but this is now their third consecutive must-win game. I ultimately expect that favorable fortune to run dry against a superior and deeper lineup on Thursday.
My best bet: USA to win and Over 4.5 total goals (-120 at SIA)
USA vs Finland moneyline & Over/Under analysis
DraftKings has the USA moneyline priced at -350 while SIA has a three-way result available with the Americans priced at -222. For comparison, the regulation market through DraftKings has the Americans trading at -205.
Similarly, the available totals for this game vary across the industry. As highlighted, SIA has the Over 6.5 priced at +140 and the Under at -189. DraftKings has the total at 6.0 with the Over at -105 and the Under at -115.
USA vs Finland betting trend to know
The U.S. has won 11 of its past 15 IIHF World Junior Championship games against Finland.
USA vs Finland game info
| Location: | Scandinavium, Gothenburg, Sweden |
| Date: | Thursday, January 4, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
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