The 2024 renewal of the Grade I, $2 million Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course tonight while Belmont Park undergoes construction, and I'll tell you my top win pick for the "Test of the Champion" in my Belmont Stakes win, place, and show predictions.
Due to track configuration, the Belmont will be 1 1/4-miles, opening the third and final jewel of the Triple Crown up to more three-year-olds looking to test their mettle. Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Grey match up once again, but it's Sierra Leone who's favored over both of them in a field of 10. I'll discuss who has a leg up in the rematch of Triple Crown race winners and much more.
2024 Belmont Stakes picks
I see a closer from the Kentucky Derby that came up short returning to win the Belmont Stakes, but it's not who you might think. Be sure to check out updated Belmont Stakes odds before placing your bets.
Best Bet: Honor Marie to win (+1,200 at FanDuel Racing)
Win Prediction: Honor Marie (12-1)
Honor Marie had arguably the toughest trip of any horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, being pinballed by rivals coming out of the gate before steadying off heels inside the opening furlong. A three-wide journey on the first turn became an even wider one when forced to swerve outside of a rival that checked up, and then he was checked again going into the far turn.
Jockey Ben Curtis dove to the inside to try and save some ground midway on the final bend but eventually had to swing his charge several paths off the rail in the stretch drive.
Despite all this adversity, Honor Marie went from 20th and last to eighth when the race was over. There are many horses who quit at the first sign of trouble, but this son of Honor Code clearly has guts. I'll gladly hitch my wagon to the 12-1 Louisiana Derby runner-up, who lures Florent Geroux on Saturday, in the hopes he enjoys a smoother voyage.
Show Prediction: Sierra Leone (9-5)
Sierra Leone is the most consistent and battle-tested horse in the Belmont, as he won the Risen Star Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes prior to a narrow runner-up result in the Kentucky Derby, but that doesn't mean he's the best bet to win the race.
Much like Honor Marie, Sierra Leone was also well back early in the Kentucky Derby. He simply wasn't blessed with natural early speed, but he makes up for it with a solid closing kick. However, taking deep closers like him at 9-5 can be dangerous as he could get caught in traffic.
Show Prediction: The Wine Steward (15-1)
The Wine Steward showed more early speed than usual in a short field in the Peter Pan Stakes when last seen, and he wound up getting run down in the lane by Antiquarian. However, I think he can turn the tables on that rival in the Belmont Stakes.
The Wine Steward was a three-time winner at two but ended his juvenile season with a loss in the Breeders' Futurity Stakes. The Mike Maker trainee missed the Breeders' Cup and most of the Kentucky Derby trail, as he didn't make his 2024 debut until the Lexington Stakes on April 13. He didn't lose by much to Encino, who I believed was a serious threat to win the Derby before an injury sidelined him.
The jockey change from Luis Saez to Manny Franco suggests a possible change in tactics. While I don't expect The Wine Steward to drop to the tail-end of the pack, I don't think he'll be on the lead with bookends Seize the Grey and Mindframe expected to show early initiative. The Wine Steward could get the perfect stalking trip at a nice price in the Belmont Stakes.
Picks made on 6-5 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Kentucky Derby winner vs. Preakness Stakes winner: Which horse has a leg up?
I'm putting neither Mystik Dan nor Seize the Grey in my Belmont Stakes Top 3, but if I had to pick between the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner and the 2024 Preakness Stakes winner, I would side with the former.
Seize the Grey has one race that makes him a contender in this group, and it's his gate-to-wire victory in the Preakness. I don't think this horse suddenly changed from an also-ran to a force to be reckoned with from his ninth to 10th career start.
I dismissed Mystik Dan in the Derby off a muddy win in the Southwest and a somewhat troubled third in the Arkansas Derby, and I bet against him in the Preakness off a perfect-trip score at Churchill. But he lost nothing in defeat at Pimlico, and if it rains at Saratoga, it's all the better for Mystik Dan.
Belmont Stakes 2024 odds
| Post | Horse |  * |
 ** |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seize the Grey | +800 | 8-1 | +800 |
| 2 | Resilience | +1,000 | 10-1 | +1,400 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | +500 | 5-1 | +700 |
| 4 | The Wine Steward | +1,500 | 15-1 | +2,500 |
| 5 | Antiquarian | +1,200 | 12-1 | +1,600 |
| 6 | Dornoch | +1,500 | 15-1 | +2,500 |
| 7 | Protective | +2,000 | 20-1 | +4,000 |
| 8 | Honor Marie | +1,200 | 12-1 | +1,000 |
| 9 | Sierra Leone | +180 | 9-5 | +150 |
| 10 | Mindframe | +350 | 7-2 | +400 |
Odds as of 6-8-2024 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
*FanDuel Racing odds available in AZ, CO, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY
**bet365 Belmont odds are not available in the United States.
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Where can I bet on the Belmont Stakes?
This all depends on where you live. If you’re in the USA, betting on the Belmont Stakes online isn’t as simple as simply launching your favorite sportsbook app. Instead, you’ll have to use a specialist-pooled horse racing betting site.
Those in Canada or the UK have it much easier as most sports betting sites offer horse racing markets. Take a look at the top horse racing betting sites available in your area.
