Horse racing odds are back at historic Churchill Downs with races resuming this weekend as states begin relaxing COVID-19 restrictions.
Racing analyst Monique Vág breaks down the odds and gives her best horse racing tips and betting picks for Saturday May 16, at Churchill Downs and Santa Anita Park (races begin at 1 p.m ET). **video
Churchill Downs Free Picks
Race No. 5, $79,000 Maiden, Post: 3:04 p.m. ET
Pick: No. 2 Mr. Jaggers (7/2)
In his two turf starts unfortunately the breaks were less than ideal in both efforts and he's gotten out a bit slow. Since those two efforts, he tried the dirt last time out after a lengthy hiatus and didn't look great gripping the surface.
Today he makes his second start after quite some time away and returns to the turf. With quite a bit of early speed entered and horses vying for the front end, this horse could definitely be a factor taking advantage of a stalking trip.
Race No. 7, $79,000 Maiden, Post: 4:08 p.m. ET
Pick: No. 5 Say Moi (5/2)
Had a very difficult outside post to work with in her parimutuel debut, but ran a huge race finishing second behind the eventual winner who was that much better than the field on March 29th. Today she's raced back versus similar company and draws a much better post to work with.
I would expect to see her put into play early at this sprinting distance, and if she can settle in nicely on or around the front end and race anything like she did in her debut, she could win this one comfortably.
Race No. 8, $81,000 Allowance, Post: 4:40 p.m. ET
Pick: No. 10 Sea of Hope (10/1)
Wide open allowance race here with many different potential angles to take. This colt caught my attention two starts back putting up a dominant victory versus maiden company after kicking away late in deep stretch.
Although that was versus horses who have never won before, timing wise that's a clear standout effort. Look for this colt involved in the pace scenario early and hopefully he's able to hit the board at a nice price.
Santa Anita Park Free Picks
Race No. 7, $62,500 Optional Claiming, Post: 6:37 p.m. ET
Pick: No. 7 Dogtag (5/2)
Dropped into the optional claiming ranks last time out and it did appear like she needed a start after seven months away from racing. Today she gets another try at this lower level after racing primarily in the graded stakes ranks in her efforts prior.
She can flaunt some speed if necessary, but I would expect her to work out a trip from off the pace. With the smaller field to face off against, and one 2020 start under her belt, she should be much sharper in here and looms as the one to beat.
Race No. 8, $150,000 Evening Jewel Stakes, Post: 7:08 p.m. ET
Pick: No. 3 Been Studying Her (7/2)
Returns to racing over the dirt after a one race stint on the turf where she broke very slow and was never a factor. With enough speed entered today and this filly drawing an ideal post, look for her to work out a stalking trip. A trip like that is definitely her preferred racing style and what's led her to find the winners circle three times already.
With quite a few fillies in here perhaps better suited for the turf, take a shot on this filly who's proven how good she can be versus quality stakes runners and now gets to face off against easier.
