Anticipation is building for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with the minor prep races in the past and the 50-point preps underway.
The highly-touted Barnes suffered his first defeat in the San Felipe Stakes to Journalism, who has since taken over as the Kentucky Derby betting favorite. Will we see another shakeup in the Virginia Derby on March 15?
Let's take a look at where things stand with less than two months to go to the seminal thoroughbred event at Churchill Downs featuring the best three-year-olds in horse racing.
Kentucky Derby odds
| Horse |  * |
|---|---|
| Journalism | +700 |
| Citizen Bull | +800 |
| Sovereignty | +1000 |
| Barnes | +1400 |
| Coal Battle | +2000 |
| Cornucopian | +2000 |
| Burnham Square | +2500 |
| Chancer McPatrick | +2500 |
| Disco Time | +2500 |
| Owen Almighty | +2500 |
| River Thames | +2500 |
| Sandman | +2500 |
| Captain Cook | +3300 |
| Built | +3300 |
| East Avenue | +3300 |
| Getaway Car | +3300 |
| Madaket Road | +3300 |
| John Hancock | +3300 |
| Luxor Cafe | +4000 |
| Rodriguez | +4000 |
Odds as of 3-11.
*odds not available in the U.S.
Kentucky Derby favorites
Journalism
Journalism beat a well-regarded runner in Gaming in the Los Alamitos Futurity to close out his two-year-old career, then grinded down prize colt Barnes to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes. He's got Curlin on top and Uncle Mo on the bottom of his pedigree, so he's bred to run all day and age like fine wine.
Citizen Bull
Citizen Bull was the benefactor of East Avenue's stumbling start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as he went gate-to-wire through slow fractions. But the dual Grade I winner should not be sold short as he clearly possesses plenty of ability. That was on full display in his Robert B. Lewis Stakes victory on February 1.
Sovereignty
Unseen since a five-length romp in the Street Sense Stakes on October 27, Sovereignty was sent off as the third-choice in the Fountain of Youth Stakes following some uninspiring AM workouts for Bill Mott. However, he uncorked a huge late rally in the short stretch run at Gulfstream to nail a game River Thames and pick up 50 Derby points.
Expect one more start for this son of Into Mischief prior to the Run for the Roses, where he'll likely be favored.
Barnes
There was all kinds of hype surrounding Barnes before his career even began, as the Into Mischief colt was purchased for $3.2 million. Not only did he win his debut race, but he did so in trainer Bob Baffert's first start at Churchill Downs following a multi-year ban for a drug test concerning Medina Spirit in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
Barnes went on to post a convincing victory in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes, but Barnes failed his first route test in the San Felipe, getting beaten fair-and-square by Journalism.
Kentucky Derby long shot to watch
River Thames
River Thames did the dirty work in the Fountain of Youth, softening up frontrunning Neoeqous before grabbing a short lead in the stretch. However, Sovereignty was able to nail River Thames on the wire thanks to that pace setup. Considering it was River Thames' first try around two turns, that was a heroic effort. Look for him to take a step forward in his final prep for the Kentucky Derby for Todd Pletcher.
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Who won the Kentucky Derby, and what were the odds?
Although the Kentucky Derby favorite dominated at Churchill Downs from 2013 to 2018, Country House won the Run for the Roses in 2019 as the second-biggest underdog in Derby history at 65/1. Just three years later, Rich Strike surpassed Country House when he won the "Run for the Roses" at 80/1.
Here are the winners of the Kentucky Derby since 2000, their post positions, and their final odds.
| Year | Kentucky Derby Winner | Post Position | Final Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mystik Dan | 3 | 18/1 |
| 2023 | Mage | 8 | 14/1 |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | 20 | 80/1 |
| 2021 | Medina Spirit | 8 | 12/1 |
| 2020 | Authentic | 18 | 8/1 |
| 2019 | Country House | 20 | 65/1 |
| 2018 | Justify | 7 | 5/2 |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | 5 | 9/2 |
| 2016 | Nyquist | 13 | 2/1 |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | 18 | 5/2 |
| 2014 | California Chrome | 5 | 5/2 |
| 2013 | Orb | 16 | 5/1 |
| 2012 | I'll Have Another | 19 | 15/1 |
| 2011 | Animal Kingdom | 16 | 20/1 |
| 2010 | Super Saver | 4 | 8/1 |
| 2009 | Mine That Bird | 8 | 50/1 |
| 2008 | Big Brown | 20 | 7/2 |
| 2007 | Street Sense | 7 | 9/2 |
| 2006 | Barbaro | 3 | 6/1 |
| 2005 | Giacomo | 10 | 50/1 |
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | 13 | 4/1 |
| 2003 | Funny Cide | 5 | 13/1 |
| 2002 | War Emblem | 5 | 41/2 |
| 2001 | Monarchos | 16 | 21/2 |
| 2000 | Fusaichi Pegasus | 15 | 9/5 |
Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby?
Several legal horse racing betting sites allow you to wager on the Kentucky Derby, but not every sportsbook is allowed to offer Derby odds. We have created a guide outlining the best Kentucky Derby betting sites available in your area.
Which states have legal betting on the Kentucky Derby?
While sports bettors can enjoy some form of online or retail wagering in 34 states (+ DC), horse racing enthusiasts have even more legal options. Refer to our list of legal states for betting on horse racing to see if horse race betting is legal in your state via the FanDuel Racing app.
Canada (excluding Ontario)
Almost all sports betting sites offer fixed-odds betting on horse racing. Check out the best sports betting sites in Canada or sign up now with one of our top partners, bet365, and earn up to $200 in bet credits!
Ontario
Following the changes to the iGaming regulations on April 4, 2022, horse racing betting is no longer available at sportsbooks. Those in Ontario who are looking to bet on the Kentucky Derby will need to sign up at one of Woodbine's two online offerings, HPIbet and Dark Horse Bets.
How are Kentucky Derby rankings determined?
Kentucky Derby rankings are determined by a points system that assigns a point value to each of the designated prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby during the first Saturday of May. The system is designed to reward the top performers in the most important races, while also taking into account the overall consistency and success of each horse throughout the season.
The horses with the most points at the end of qualifying are guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, with the remaining spots filled by horses with the next highest point totals. In the event of a tie in points, the horse with the highest earnings in graded stakes races will be given preference.
The Kentucky Derby rankings are updated weekly leading up to the race as new prep races are run and points are awarded, so the rankings can change quite a bit over the course of the qualifying season.
How are Kentucky Derby odds made?
Kentucky Derby odds are based on a horse's past performance, jockey and trainer success, and public perception. The odds are determined by an oddsmaker that works for the track or an off-track betting facility, and their goal is to set odds in a way that will balance the amount of money bet on each horse, so that the track or betting facility will make a profit regardless of which horse wins.
Here's how the odds-making process typically works:
1. The oddsmakers start by analyzing each horse's past performance, looking at factors such as speed figures, finishing times, and previous wins and losses.
2. They consider the jockey and trainer, looking at their track records and success rates in past races.
3. The oddsmakers take into account any recent news or changes that may affect a horse's performance, such as injuries, equipment changes, or changes in the track conditions.
4. The oddsmakers look at the public's perception of each horse, considering factors such as media coverage, social media buzz, and the horse's popularity with fans.
Based on all of these factors, the oddsmakers assign each horse a morning line, which is the initial set of odds that are released to the public before the race.
Once the betting starts, the odds will fluctuate based on how much money is bet on each horse. If a lot of money is bet on a particular horse, the odds will go down, while if considerably less money is bet on a horse, the odds will go up.
Kentucky Derby odds are designed to reflect the public's perception of each horse's chances of winning, while also ensuring that the track or betting facility makes a profit regardless of the outcome.
What are the different types of horse racing bets for the Kentucky Derby?
Here are some of the most common types of horse racing bets available at Churchill Downs and beyond:
Win: This is a simple bet on which horse will win the race. If your horse finishes first, you win the bet.
Place: This is a bet on which horse will finish in second place or better. If your horse finishes first or second, you win the bet.
Show: This is a bet on which horse will finish in third place or better. If your horse finishes first, second, or third, you win the bet.
Exacta: This is a bet on which horses will finish first and second in the correct order. If you correctly predict the first and second place finishers, you win the bet.
Quinella: This is a bet on which horses will finish first and second, regardless of the order. If you correctly predict the first and second place finishers, you win the bet.
Trifecta: This is a bet on which horses will finish first, second, and third in the correct order. If you correctly predict the first, second, and third place finishers in the correct order, you win the bet.
Superfecta: This is a bet on which horses will finish first, second, third, and fourth in the correct order. If you correctly predict the first, second, third, and fourth place finishers in the correct order, you win the bet.
Daily Double: This is a bet on which horses will win two consecutive races. You must correctly predict the winner of both races to win the bet.
Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, or Pick 6: These are bets on which horses will win three, four, five, or six consecutive races, respectively. You must correctly predict the winner of each race to win the bet.
Future Bet: This is a bet on a future event, such as the winner of the Kentucky Derby or Breeders' Cup Classic. The odds for this type of bet are usually set well in advance of the race, and can change as the race approaches.
It's important to understand the rules and potential payouts for each type of bet before placing your wager.
Kentucky Derby odds FAQs
Citizen Bull is the current betting favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Most odds you will see for the Kentucky Derby are the odds to win the race. The odds above are listed in Fractional format.
Mage was a 14-1 underdog to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
If a horse racing at the Kentucky Derby has 80 to 1 odds and you place a bet on that horse, you stand to make a significant return if that horse wins. For instance, if you bet $1 and your horse wins, you would receive $80 in winnings, plus your original $1 stake back, for a total payout of $81. As always, it's crucial to understand that horse racing outcomes and betting are unpredictable, and it's important to only bet what you can afford to lose.
Citizen Bull is the current betting favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby odds are calculated based on a combination of factors, including the horse's past performance, its perceived ability, the jockey's reputation, and the betting patterns of the public.
