The Kentucky Derby odds will swing wildly this weekend following a trio of 50-point prep races taking place across the country. My free betting picks will focus on the latter two taking place on Saturday, March 1, namely the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.
Fountain of Youth odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Gulfstream Race 13
- Post time: 5:44 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV, CNBC
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gate to Wire | 6-1 | +600 | +800 |
| 2 | Sovereignty | 3-1 | +300 | +275 |
| 3 | Burnham Square | 5-2 | +250 | +200 |
| 4 | McKellen | 30-1 | +3000 | +2500 |
| 5 | Solid Left | 20-1 | +2000 | +3300 |
| 6 | River Thames | 2-1 | +200 | +300 |
| 7 | Neoequos | 10-1 | +1000 | +700 |
| 8 | Keep It Easy | 8-1 | +800 | +1600 |
Odds as of 3-1.
No. 6 River Thames (2-1, morning-line favorite) is 2-for-2 for trainer Todd Pletcher, drawing off to a pair of easy scores over this course. The son of Maclean's Music went from six furlongs to a mile when last seen and looks like he'll handle the added 1/16th of a mile (or slightly longer).
River Thames is the one to beat on speed figures, is conditioned by a six-time winner of this race, and will be ridden by a six-time winner of the Fountain of Youth in John Velazquez.
No. 3 Burnham Square (5-2) came from off the pace to take the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream when last seen. He's successfully gone from a deep, one-run closer to a middle-mover who can grind down his foes late since switching to jockey Edgard Zayas.
Like the top choice, Burnham Square will try to get the first run at the sprinting speedsters stretching out in this spot.
No. 2 Sovereignty (3-1) is making his three-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth. He broke his maiden in impressive fashion in the Grade III Street Sense at Churchill Downs when last seen in his third lifetime start. Trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado have teamed up to win 19% of the time at Gulfstream over the last year.
Best bet: $8 exacta 6/2,3, $4 exacta 3/6 ($20)
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San Felipe odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Santa Anita Race 8
- Post time: 6:43 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV, CNBC
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mellencamp | 6-1 | +600 | +2000 |
| 2 | Journalism | 7-2 | +350 | +400 |
| 3 | Barnes | EVEN | +100 | -165 |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 9-5 | +180 | +300 |
| 5 | Smooth Cruisein | 30-1 | +3000 | +5000 |
| 6 | Berlin Wall | 30-1 | +3000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 3-1.
No. 2 Journalism (7-2) should give the highly-touted Barnes all he can handle in the San Felipe Stakes.
Journalism has already beaten a Bob Baffert-trained trio in his career, taking the Los Alamitos Futurity over eventual Sunland Derby winner Getaway Car in the process. He's making his three-year-old debut in this spot but trainer Michael McCarthy appears to have him ready following a string of solid five-furlong works.
No. 3 Barnes (EVEN, morning-line favorite) is by a sire more noted for his sprint progeny in Into Mischief and has never gone a route of ground before. The AM drills for Baffert are encouraging and the previous two speed figures are strong, but the price will be anything but appetizing.
No. 4 Rodriguez (9-5) will be trying to get back into the win column for Baffert following a loss to barnmate Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. He was a well-rated and runaway maiden winner two-back.
Best bet: $8 exacta box 2/3, $4 exacta 2,3/4 ($24)
Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 1, 2024 | Del Mar | Citizen Bull |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 4, 2025 | Oaklawn Park | Coal Battle |
| Jerome Stakes | January 4 | Aqueduct | Cyclone State |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 18 | Fair Grounds | Disco Time |
| Southwest Stakes | January 25 | Oaklawn Park | Speed King |
| Withers Stakes | February 1 | Aqueduct | Captain Cook |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 1 | Gulfstream Park | Burnham Square |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 1 | Santa Anita Park | Citizen Bull |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 8 | Tampa Bay Downs | John Hancock |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 15 | Fair Grounds | Magnitude |
| Sunland Derby | February 16 | Sunland Park | Getaway Car |
| John Battaglia Memorial | February 22 | Turfway Park | California Burrito |
| Rebel Stakes | February 23 | Oaklawn Park | Coal Battle |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 1 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 1 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Gotham Stakes | March 1 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 8 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Virginia Derby | March 15 | Colonial Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 22 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 22 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 29 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 29 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | April 5 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 5 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 5 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 5 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 12 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
