Seven runners will try to boost their stock in the Kentucky Derby odds this Saturday in the Grade III, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby. The 1 1/16th-mile heat at Tampa Bay Downs marks the return of dual Grade I winner Chancer McPatrick, but a comeback win is anything but certain in this spot.
See how my free betting picks are attacking the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday, March 8.
Tampa Bay Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Tampa Bay Downs Race 11
- Post time: 5:34 p.m. ET
- TV: FS2, FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Owen Almighty | 5-1 | +500 | +500 |
| 2 | Chancer McPatrick | 8-5 | +160 | +200 |
| 3 | Hill Road | 4-1 | +400 | +1000 |
| 4 | Brodeur | 15-1 | +1500 | +1000 |
| 5 | Filoso | 15-1 | +1500 | +2000 |
| 6 | Naughty Rascal | 20-1 | +2000 | +800 |
| 7 | Patch Adams | 2-1 | +200 | +187 |
Odds as of 3-7.
No. 3 Hill Road (4-1) hasn't raced since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but is the most intriguing colt running in the Tampa Bay Derby in the eyes of this handicapper.
Hill Road, who now runs out of the Chad Brown barn, was the only runner who made up any ground in a Juvenile that turned into a merry-go-round race dominated by Citizen Bull (who won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in his next start) and Gaming. While there's no guarantee that Hill Road will get a pace setup that's any better in the Tampa Bay Derby, he does get blinkers added. Perhaps he won't be as far back as he was at Del Mar when last seen.
The return works are strong and Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to climb aboard.
No. 2 Chancer McPatrick (8-5, morning-line favorite) is the more proven of the Brown duo with Grade I wins in the Hopeful and Champagne to his credit, but he misfired in the Juvenile and has been on the shelf since. In fact, he had a minor ankle procedure in the interim.
However, if Chancer McPatrick was impacted by that ankle injury, he hasn't shown it in his AM works. He'll also get blinkers added in the hopes of getting away from the gate faster, and Flavien Prat has the call once more.
No. 1 Owen Almighty (5-1) has the edge when looking at the pace scenario, as Brodeur appears to be the only other true speed type in the Tampa Bay Derby. However, a change in jockey to Jose Ortiz could signal a desire to change tactics with Brodeur, and his recent tune-up works have been slow.
Owen Almighty has been involved in prolonged duels in both the seven-furlong Pasco (first) and the 1 1/16th-mile Sam F. Davis Stakes (second) over this course. Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the assignment, but it's fair to wonder if Owen Almighty's stamina is up to snuff, at least when looking for the likeliest winner in the race.
No. 7 Patch Adams (2-1) will not be on my tickets. He freaked at seven furlongs two-back but was unable to pass the distance test in the Southwest Stakes when last seen, checking in fourth. Prat landing elsewhere is also discouraging.
Best bet: $4 exacta box 1/2/3 ($24)
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Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 1, 2024 | Del Mar | Citizen Bull |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 4, 2025 | Oaklawn Park | Coal Battle |
| Jerome Stakes | January 4 | Aqueduct | Cyclone State |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 18 | Fair Grounds | Disco Time |
| Southwest Stakes | January 25 | Oaklawn Park | Speed King |
| Withers Stakes | February 1 | Aqueduct | Captain Cook |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 1 | Gulfstream Park | Burnham Square |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 1 | Santa Anita Park | Citizen Bull |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 8 | Tampa Bay Downs | John Hancock |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 15 | Fair Grounds | Magnitude |
| Sunland Derby | February 16 | Sunland Park | Getaway Car |
| John Battaglia Memorial | February 22 | Turfway Park | California Burrito |
| Rebel Stakes | February 23 | Oaklawn Park | Coal Battle |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 1 | Gulfstream Park | Sovereignty |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 1 | Santa Anita Park | Journalism |
| Gotham Stakes | March 1 | Aqueduct | Flood Zone |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 8 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Virginia Derby | March 15 | Colonial Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 22 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 22 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 29 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 29 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | April 5 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 5 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 5 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 5 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 12 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
