Sunday's Grade II, $1.25 million Rebel Stakes will be the richest race yet on the 2025 Kentucky Derby trail, and the 1 1/16th-mile heat at Oaklawn Park unsurprisingly drew a full field of 14.
My free betting picks walk you through the Kentucky Derby odds for this race and tell you the optimal wagering strategy for the can't-miss event from Hot Springs, AR.
Rebel Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Oaklawn Race 11
- Post time: 6:23 p.m. ET
- TV: FS2, FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coal Battle | 10-1 | +1000 | +1000 |
| 2 | Admiral Dennis | 12-1 | +1200 | +1200 |
| 3 | Sandman | 4-1 | +400 | +400 |
| 4 | Hypnus | 10-1 | +1000 | +1000 |
| 5 | Madaket Road | 9-2 | +450 | +450 |
| 6 | Publisher | 20-1 | +2000 | +2000 |
| 7 | Dreaminblue | 15-1 | +1500 | +1500 |
| 8 | Innovator | 15-1 | +1500 | +1500 |
| 9 | Smoken Wicked | 8-1 | +800 | +800 |
| 10 | Bullard | 5-1 | +500 | +500 |
| 11 | Speed King | 6-1 | +600 | +600 |
| 12 | Brereton's Baytown | 50-1 | +5000 | +5000 |
| 13 | Tiztastic | 8-1 | +800 | +800 |
| 14 | Hot Gunner | 50-1 | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 2-21.
No. 1 Coal Battle (10-1) is a perfect 4-for-4 lifetime on dirt with a pair of stakes wins, yet he is a double-digit price. That speaks to the depth that the 2025 Rebel Stakes offers.
Coal Battle went gate-to-wire in the Smarty Jones Stakes, another stepping stone on Arkansas' road to the Kentucky Derby, crushing a field that included a next-out winner by four lengths last time out. He was an impressive off-the-pace winner in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park two-back, beating Southwest Stakes winner No. 11 Speed King (6-1) in the process.
This son of Coal Front has had no trouble adding on distance, and he's also won from the rail draw before.
No. 3 Sandman (4-1, morning-line favorite) is a shorter price here than Speed King despite the head-to-head loss in the Southwest when last seen, but that was the product of a terrible start that cost him multiple lengths. It's not outrageous to assume that Sandman would have won that race with a clean beginning.
The Mark Casse trainee already has a victory over this course, and Cristian Torres once again has the call.
Speed King was able to clear from a wide post and go coast-to-coast in the Southwest, running his career record to 2-for-3, with the lone loss coming to the top selection. He's yet to prove that he can win from off the pace, and there is some opposing speed signed on here like sprinter Smoken Wicked on the stretchout, but the speed figures put the Ron Moquett trainee in the hunt once more.
No. 4 Hypnus (10-1) is an intriguing runner from the Ken McPeek barn with Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard. This is the team that won the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan, who wintered at Oaklawn.
Hypnus has just one prior start, but it was a fast maiden score going a route of ground at the Fair Grounds. The return works are strong, but the inexperience coupled with the fact that the lone win came on a sloppy racetrack are obvious downsides. However, you're getting a good price to compensate for that.
My main wagering strategy will be to get Coal Front to finish either first or second, with Sandman, Hypnus, and Speed King as options to complete the exacta. I'll also throw those other three horses in an exacta box in case Coal Front comes up short.
Best bet: $3 exacta key box 1/3,4,11, $2 exacta box 3/4/11 ($30)
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Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 1, 2024 | Del Mar | Citizen Bull |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 4, 2025 | Oaklawn Park | Coal Battle |
| Jerome Stakes | January 4 | Aqueduct | Cyclone State |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 18 | Fair Grounds | Disco Time |
| Southwest Stakes | January 25 | Oaklawn Park | Speed King |
| Withers Stakes | February 1 | Aqueduct | Captain Cook |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 1 | Gulfstream Park | Burnham Square |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 1 | Santa Anita Park | Citizen Bull |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 8 | Tampa Bay Downs | John Hancock |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 15 | Fair Grounds | Magnitude |
| Sunland Derby | February 16 | Sunland Park | Getaway Car |
| John Battaglia Memorial | February 22 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| Rebel Stakes | February 23 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 1 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 1 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Gotham Stakes | March 1 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 8 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Virginia Derby | March 15 | Colonial Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 22 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 22 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 29 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 29 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | April 5 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 5 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 5 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 5 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 12 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
