Fair Grounds' road to the first Saturday in May rolls on with the Grade II, $500,000 Risen Star Stakes, the first race of 2025 offering 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner and an almost assured spot in the starting gate for the Run for the Roses.
This race will be sure to shape the Kentucky Derby odds significantly, so don't miss my free betting picks as I comb through the 13-horse field competing in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star on Saturday, February 15.
Risen Star Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Fair Grounds Race 14
- Post time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Promise | 12-1 | +1200 | +2000 |
| 2 | Jonathan's Way | 4-1 | +400 | +350 |
| 3 | Vassimo | 8-1 | +800 | +700 |
| 4 | East Avenue | 9-5 | +180 | +137 |
| 5 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | +3000 | +4000 |
| 6 | Seattle Road | 30-1 | +3000 | +6600 |
| 7 | Septarian | 12-1 | +1200 | +900 |
| 8 | Giocoso | 20-1 | +2000 | +3300 |
| 9 | Built | 5-1 | +500 | +600 |
| 10 | Render Judgement | 12-1 | +1200 | +1600 |
| 11 | Jolly Samurai | 30-1 | +3000 | +3300 |
| 12 | Vamos Carlitos | 30-1 | +3000 | +5000 |
| 13 | Magnitude | 12-1 | +1200 | +650 |
Odds as of 2-13.
No. 4 East Avenue (9-5, morning-line favorite) is the one to beat if he runs back to his Breeders' Futurity triumph at Keeneland under Tyler Gaffalione. He had a legitimate excuse for his misfire in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after botching the start and is now training forwardly for his return to the races.
However, I won't just hand the race to a horse that has not proven that he can handle adversity, especially when there's an appealing 30-1 long shot on the board.
No. 5 Chunk of Gold (30-1) invades from Turfway Park off a six-furlong maiden win and a runner-up effort in the one-mile Leonatus Stakes. Neither effort came back particularly fast, but this son of Preservationist — a late bloomer himself (no stakes wins until age 6) — figures to improve as the races get longer.
Chunk of Gold did not have a particularly sharp start in either of his first two races, as he drew Post 1 and shied away from the rail in each instance. That led to him having a lot of work to do late last time out. He'll be reunited with Abel Cedillo, who guided him to his maiden win, and his pedigree does not preclude him from appreciating the dirt.
No. 2 Jonathan's Way (4-1) had a highly promising 2-for-2 start to his career before coming up empty in the Breeders' Cup. His second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes was not bad, but I think it's good that this son of Vekoma got a refresh before continuing along the Kentucky Derby trail.
The recent workouts are strong and Jose Ortiz, who is crushing the competition for leading rider at the Fair Grounds, has the call.
No. 7 Septarian (12-1) may have more to offer in his second start off the bench for Chad Brown, who names Flavien Prat to ride.
Best bet: $3 exacta box 2/4/5, $2 exacta 4/2,5, $1 exacta 2,4,5/7, $5 win 5 ($30)
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Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 1, 2024 | Del Mar | Citizen Bull |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 4, 2025 | Oaklawn Park | Coal Battle |
| Jerome Stakes | January 4 | Aqueduct | Cyclone State |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 18 | Fair Grounds | Disco Time |
| Southwest Stakes | January 25 | Oaklawn Park | Speed King |
| Withers Stakes | February 1 | Aqueduct | Captain Cook |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 1 | Gulfstream Park | Burnham Square |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 1 | Santa Anita Park | Citizen Bull |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 8 | Tampa Bay Downs | John Hancock |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 15 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Sunland Derby | February 16 | Sunland Park | TBD |
| Rebel Stakes | February 22 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| John Battaglia Memorial | February 22 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 1 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 1 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Gotham Stakes | March 1 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 8 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Virginia Derby | March 15 | Colonial Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 22 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 22 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 29 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 29 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | April 5 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 5 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 5 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 5 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 12 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
