The Kentucky Derby odds are beginning to heat up as the first of the major Derby prep races is set for Saturday in the Grade II, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes.
The Fair Grounds feature offers 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner and drew a field of 12. Going as the 14th and final race at the New Orleans circuit, post time for the Risen Star is 7:17 p.m. ET.
Keep reading for my free betting picks and analysis of the Risen Star Stakes on Saturday, February 17.
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Risen Star Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Fair Grounds Race 14
- Post time: 7:17 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tizzy Indy | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +10,000 |
| 2 | Awesome Ruta | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +6,600 |
| 3 | Honor Marie | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +700 |
| 4 | Sierra Leone | 4-1 | +400 | +400 | +350 |
| 5 | Moonlight | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,400 |
| 6 | Real Men Violin | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +1,400 |
| 7 | Hall of Fame | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +350 |
| 8 | Catching Freedom | 5-1 | +500 | +500 | +800 |
| 9 | Cardinale | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,600 |
| 10 | Resilience | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,600 |
| 11 | Track Phantom | 7-2 | +350 | +350 | +275 |
| 12 | Bee Dancer | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +3,300 |
Odds as of February 15, 2024.
No. 3 Honor Marie (6-1) will be the top choice as the best-looking closer in a race replete with speed on paper. Hall of Fame, Cardinale, Track Phantom, and Bee Dancer could all be looking for the lead, and with all four drawn to the outer half of the gate, the first quarter figures to be swift. Track Phantom may be fastest of all and may even get cooperation from Steve Asmussen stablemate Hall of Fame, but the former needs to prove himself at a longer distance vs. a fuller and tougher-looking field than he faced in the Lecomte Stakes.
Honor Marie was last seen swooping the field in a last-to-first move to take the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Thanksgiving weekend. His recent works, including a stamina-building bullet move going five furlongs, suggest this one will fire off the bench under Rafael Bejarano.
No. 8 Catching Freedom (5-1) had just one horse beaten early but closed well to take the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on New Year's Day. The stretchout is logical for the son of Constitution, and the human connections couldn't be much better with Luis Saez climbing aboard for Brad Cox.
No. 4 Sierra Leone (4-1) has been devoid of early speed in each of his first two starts yet is a nose away from being 2-for-2 after being denied by top Derby prospect Dornoch in December's Remsen Stakes. Tyler Gaffalione and Chad Brown team up on this son of Gun Runner who could have more to offer as he matures.
No. 5 Moonlight (12-1) could be worth including underneath, especially if the rain stays away (there's a possibility of showers in the forecast). Todd Pletcher isn't known for taking random shots at races like this, and Moonlight is training very well for the Risen Star. Fair Grounds mainstay Florent Geroux will be in the irons as this runner looks to replicate the dominant victory in his lone fast-track start to date.
Best bet: $2 exacta box 3/4/8, $2 exacta 3,4,8/5, $3 exacta 3/4,8 ($24)
Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 3, 2023 | Santa Anita Park | Fireceness |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 1, 2024 | Oaklawn Park | Catching Freedom |
| Jerome Stakes | January 6 | Aqueduct | Drum Roll Please |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 20 | Fair Grounds | Track Phantom |
| Southwest Stakes | February 3 | Oaklawn Park | Mystik Dan |
| Withers Stakes | February 3 | Aqueduct | Uncle Heavy |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 3 | Gulfstream Park | Hades |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 3 | Santa Anita Park | Nysos* |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 10 | Tampa Bay Downs | No More Time |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 17 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Sunland Derby | February 18 | Sunland Park | TBD |
| Rebel Stakes | February 24 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 2 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| John Battaglia Memorial | March 2 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 2 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Gotham Stakes | March 2 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 9 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 23 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 23 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | March 30 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 30 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 30 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 6 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 6 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 6 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 13 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*winner trained by Bob Baffert and ineligible for the Kentucky Derby.
Not intended for use in MA.
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