College football’s Week 6 results shook up the national scene and the national championship futures market.
It started in Nashville, where Vanderbilt did more than just shock the world with its massive upset of then-No. 1 and previously undefeated Alabama.
“Alabama was the biggest loser last week moving from +375 to +600 to win the College Football Playoffs,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee told Covers. “After the loss, the Tide is still among a handful of contenders to win the national championship including Ohio State, Texas, and Georgia. The Buckeyes are the biggest liability for the sportsbook.”
The Crimson Tide also took a big step back at Fanatics Sportsbook, going from tied with Ohio State as +350 favorites in the college football national championship odds market to +650 after the defeat, leaving the Buckeyes at the top and +275 to win it all.
No. 2 Ohio State is getting 17.3% of the handle and a market-high 15.4% of the tickets at BetMGM. The numbers are even higher at ESPN BET, where 20.3% of the handle and 17.3% of the bets are on the Buckeyes, according to figures provided to Covers.
Ohio State’s odds could change after this week as the Buckeyes head to Oregon for a top-5 primetime showdown on Saturday. The Ducks are listed fifth behind Alabama at BetMGM at +900 to win the title and are getting over 5% of both the handle and tickets.
Other benefactors
Alabama’s loss helped Georgia. After falling in Tuscaloosa to the Tide in Week 5, the Bulldogs were sitting at +650 in the futures market at BetMGM. Coming off an 18-point home win over Auburn, they’re now +500 and listed third in the national title market behind Ohio State and Texas.
The Bulldogs are getting 17.6% of the handle, most of any team at BetMGM. At ESPN BET, 14.2% of the money and 10.6% of the tickets, third-most in both categories, are on Kirby Smart’s squad, which hosts Mississippi State this week before playing at Texas in Week 7.
The No. 1-ranked Longhorns benefited from watching a lot of chaos last week. Coming off a bye and heading into the Red River Rivalry game against Oklahoma on Saturday, Texas went from +500 to +400 at Fanatics. They’re getting 11.9% of the bets and 11.6% of the handle at BetMGM to win the national title.
No. 6 Miami’s odds remained unchanged at +1,800. The Hurricanes are getting 9.6% of the handle, the fourth-highest amount at BetMGM.
More chaos
With the College Football Playoff expanding from four teams to 12 this year, an early-season loss isn’t a death knell. Winning a Power 4 conference leads to automatic bids, and teams with multiple losses still have a shot at at-large spots.
Alabama opened the season at -115 to make the playoff at bet365 and that priced shortened to -1,200 after the Tide's win over Georgia.
And even after last week's upset loss to Vandy, Bama remains -550 to make the playoff.
"In prior years, this price after a loss like that wouldn’t be near as short, but with the expanded format, this price shows how much the market still expects them in the playoffs, with an implied probability near 85%," bet365 trading leader Aron Wattleworth told Covers. with an implied probability near 85%, which is shorter than SEC rivals Georgia, who sit at -450 To Make the playoffs after starting the season @-600 to do so, however they have a tougher sked to go than Bama do.
Wattleworth notes that Alabama's odds are shorter than rival Georgia's, who sit at -450 to make the playoff after opening the season at -600.
"However, they have a tougher sked to go than Bama," Wattleworth said.
Texas started the season at -220 to make the playoff at bet365 and after opening the year at 5-0 and No. 1 in the AP poll, the Longhorns now sit at -1,600.
Ohio State entered the year at a very short -700 to make the playoff and also now sit at -1,600.
"Although we have seen more action on more teams, due to the expanded format, the odds and likely teams still show that the preseason forecasts are still standing up to expectation for most of the top teams," said Wattleworth.
Falling behind
Five teams in the Associated Press Top 25 lost to unranked teams in Week 5, and half of the top 10 have tasted defeat by October.
This includes Tennessee, which went from +1,100 to +1,800 to win it all at BetMGM, which is in a better position since the Vols lost to Arkansas. Tennessee has received 8.5% of the market’s tickets, fourth-most among all teams, and 6.8% of the handle.
At ESPN BET, one-loss teams No. 11 Notre Dame (5.1% tickets) and No. 9 Ole Miss (3.7%) are both above 3% in handle. The Irish’s odds jumped from +5,000 before Week 6 to +4,000 at BetMGM.
Michigan, which suffered its second loss of the season in Week 6, is getting 3.5% of the bets and 3.3% of the money.
Florida State, which opened the season at +2,000 to win the national championship, came off the board after falling to 1-5 with a loss to Clemson in Week 6. The Seminoles hold 1.4% of the bets and 1.2% of the handle at BetMGM.
The 10th-ranked Tigers, meanwhile, saw their odds go from +4,000 to +3,000. Bettors still aren’t huge believers in 1-loss Clemson, which is getting less than 1% of the money in the national title market.
Colorado is still one of BetMGM’s biggest liabilities as the Buffaloes remained at +50,000 to win it all coming out of a bye and heading into Saturday’s contest against No. 18 Kansas State. Colorado is getting 2.4% of the tickets and 2.5% of the handle at BetMGM.
