The biggest offseason move of MLB’s offseason so far made a huge impact on futures betting markets over the last several hours.
The New York Mets signing star outfielder Juan Soto to a mega contract worth $765 million on Sunday night reshaped the World Series odds and the odds to win the National League by Monday.
“Juan Soto to the Mets significantly improves their chances of winning the World Series,” said Hal Egeland, BetMGM trading strategy manager. “A move from +1,200 to +700 is massive for one player, but it also indicates that Steve Cohen and the Mets look to be all in and will continue adding pieces to their team.”
BetMGM reported that 66% of the money in the World Series market has been on the Mets since the signing.
The Mets are getting 36.4% of the handle to win the NL at BetMGM and are currently the sportsbook’s biggest liability in that market. They’re behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers in terms of liability in the World Series market at BetMGM with 15.5% of the handle and 10.7% of the tickets.
Affecting other teams
ESPN BET reported similar changes as the Mets went from +1,200 to win the World Series to +750 overnight. They are tied with the Atlanta Braves for the second shortest odds behind the Dodgers to win it all.
New York went from +700 to +400 in the National League pennant market, second to the Dodgers at +200.
The Soto signing also affected his former team. The New York Yankees went from +750 to +850 to win the World Series at ESPN BET.
The sports betting operator told Covers that since the news broke, 58% of all World Series market bets have come in on the Dodgers, and while the Mets have claimed 18% of the tickets, their handle during that span is 34% compared to L.A.’s 22%.
Hope for Mets backers
Soto’s 15-year deal is the largest in pro sports history and includes a $75 million signing bonus.
Soto hit 41 home runs, drove in 109 runs, and batted .288 last season to help the Yankees win the American League and reach the World Series, where they lost to the Dodgers in five games.
Already a World Series champion with the Nationals in 2019, Soto gives Mets backers hope that the franchise can win its first MLB title since 1986.
The talented left-handed power hitter who has recorded 201 homers in seven seasons joins a roster that already boasts an offensive star in Francisco Lindor. The Mets finished second in the NL East in 2024 and made it to the NL Championship Series where they lost to the Dodgers in six games.
Soto chose the Mets over the Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and Dodgers.
