Even while embedded in controversy, trading platform Kalshi has accepted more than $1 million in predictions on who will be the next pope.
Kalshi allows users to buy contracts on future events and outcomes. The question of who will fill the vacant seat is just the latest example of how wide the gambling world reaches.
Key insights
- The former pope died on Monday in his home at the Vatican.
- Italian Pietro Parolin has a market-leading 30% implied chance to replace Pope Francis.
- Kalshi was currently battling state regulators who want to shut down its sports contract markets.
Seven figures. That’s how much has been put into guessing which leader will fill the spot left behind by Pope Francis, who passed on Easter Monday at 88 years old.
Kalshi is offering next pope odds markets for 15 potential replacements with forecasts ranging from 30% to less than 1% likelihood.
The market leader at the time of writing is Italian Pietro Parolin, the Cardinal Secretary of Vatican City and Catholic prelate. Close behind is Luis Antonio Tagle, a Filipino prelate who currently serves as the Pro-Prefect for the Section of First Evangelization of the Dicastery for Evangelization.
The market suggests he has a 22% chance to sit in the chair left behind by Pope Francis.
Another Italian, Matteo Zuppi, is at 12%, making him the third of three individuals with a greater than 10% chance. Zuppi was promoted to cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019 and has served as the President of the Italian Episcopal Conference since 2022.
Three men – Hungarian Peter Erdo, Ghanaian Peter Turkson, and Italian Pierbattista Pizzaballa – are all at 8% or 9% likelihood. Next pope odds drop to five percent or less from there on.
Pope Francis’ death and reactions
Pope Francis, whose full name was Jorge Mario Bergoglio, was the head of the Catholic Church and Vatican City from 2013 until his final moments. The Argentine was the first South American native to fill the honorable position.
Pope Francis died at the Domus Santa Marta hotel, where he lived at the Vatican.
His passing came about one month after he returned to his home following a stay at the hospital while he battled double pneumonia. It was reported that he died after suffering a stroke that led to a coma and heart failure.
He was moved to St. Peter’s Basilica, as is tradition, on Wednesday, where he will remain for a public viewing period of three days.
His funeral will be held on Saturday. World leaders, including U.S. President Donald Trump, are expected to attend the ceremony.
Kalshi continues to fight state regulators
Kalshi, along with many other trading platforms, has been in the news recently because of controversy surrounding its array of prediction markets.
The latest development came earlier this week when Kalshi filed a lawsuit and preliminary injunction against the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Commission. The suit was a response to cease-and-desist orders it received from the regulator, which were sent due to the state’s belief that Kalshi’s sports prediction markets were essentially unlicensed sports betting odds.
Kalshi responded by saying that its markets were approved and are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and it is not subject to state interference.
The platform performed similar maneuvers in New Jersey and Nevada.
Several other states also either encouraged or ordered the shutdown of sports prediction markets. Clearly unfazed, Kalshi launched MLB and NBA individual game markets within the last two weeks, allowing its customers to pick which team would win a particular matchup.
