When the sun rose on Nov. 6, 2024, many people who backed Donald Trump to reclaim the presidency were ready to brag.
Key Insights
- Polls and betting markets are suggesting the same thing about the Canadian election, that the Liberals are going to win.
- This is different than what happened with the U.S. presidential election, as betting markets were more bullish about a Trump win than the polls.
- Betting on Canada’s election is more widespread than ever, but there are restrictions, including for the massive prediction market Polymarket.
None were more ready to spike the football after Election Day in the U.S. than people who plunked down currency, crypto or otherwise, on the Republican returning to the White House.
That was partly because election betting markets had been hinting more strongly than the polls at what was coming, a second Trump presidency. So much so that the New York Times reported before the election that Trump’s “apparent lead [on Polymarket] may be an illusion,” citing big bets made by four connected accounts.
But the person behind that wagering, the “French Whale,” made a killing when Trump won. So did others, and the platforms on which those wagers were made (so-called “prediction markets” like Kalshi and Polymarket) were ready to gloat as well.
“Polls 0,” tweeted Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. “Prediction Markets 1.”
Last night, Polymarket proved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 6, 2024
Polymarket consistently and accurately forecasted outcomes well ahead of all three, demonstrating the power of high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets like those pioneered by…
Canada doesn’t look like it’s in for a similar scenario on April 28, the federal Election Day.
As of Wednesday, both the polls and Canadian election odds are suggesting the same thing: the Liberals are going to win.
The CBC News "Poll Tracker" showed the governing Liberals and leader Mark Carney sitting at 42.7% support on Wednesday morning. The opposition Conservatives and leader Pierre Poilievre were polling at 38.3%.
Meanwhile, at Bet99 in Ontario, the Liberals were favourites of -425 to win, an implied probability of victory of nearly 81%. At Polymarket, traders priced Carney's chances of being the next prime minister after the election at 81%. At Kalshi, Carney's odds were 84%.
So the polls and betting markets are more or less moving in lockstep for Canada’s election. Both suggest a Liberal win is coming, and there is no significant difference in opinion (at least as of yet) as there was between U.S. election odds and the polling there.
Wanna bet?
These projections have emerged amid what is likely record amounts of wagering on a Canadian election.
Sportsbooks in Ontario and abroad have been offering odds throughout the campaign, and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are facilitating bets on the election as well. If the U.S. election was a 1-0 win for betting markets, the Canadian one might be a draw.
Still, some people (namely Conservative supporters) have questioned the polling on Canada’s election. The Tories had been huge favourites prior to former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, but Carney’s substitution and Trump’s aggressive rhetoric toward Canada appear to have catalyzed a Liberal resurgence. Not everyone believes it, though.
Yet if there is some polling bias, why aren’t betting markets taking a firmer stand against that polling? Another killing could be made if the pollsters have missed a coming Conservative wave.
A misread by the polls and betting markets could also reinsert the uncertainty that lingered before the U.S. election about wagering odds, which then dissipated after they were proven right.
However, if anything, bettors and bookmakers seem to be even more certain of a Liberal win on Monday.
I think @SteveRuddock made the point (in his newsletter, which you should read) that those who loved prediction markets last November may feel differently about them when the projections are no longer to their liking. Here's Polymarket now defending its Canadian election odds: pic.twitter.com/xhj131qfkq
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) April 22, 2025
There are still a few differences to note between Canada’s election and the one that happened south of the border. The biggest is the greater volume of gambling on the U.S. election compared to the Canadian campaign.
An eye-watering amount was wagered on Polymarket during the 2024 U.S. presidential election campaign, as the crypto-based site reported that more than US$3.6 billion in "shares" were traded on the outcome using the offshore prediction market.
The Canadian federal election isn’t drawing as much interest from Polymarket traders. As of Wednesday morning, for example, about US$58.9 million in trading volume was reported by the site for its “next prime minister” market.
While that’s nowhere near the billions of the U.S. election, it’s something. Moreover, it’s in addition to the wagering happening in Ontario, the only Canadian province that authorizes private-sector sportsbooks to take bets.
Those sportsbooks, such as bet365, Bet99, DraftKings, and FanDuel, have been offering Canadian election odds. How much handle those markets have generated is unknown, but some of those brands weren’t available to Ontarians in 2021, the last federal trip to the polls. Ontario only launched its competitive iGaming market in April 2022.
There have been some larger bets reported on the Canadian election in Ontario, such as "a few north of" $7,000 that were placed on the Conservatives to win at bet365.
Prediction prohibition
Another difference is the restrictions around prediction markets in Canada. Kalshi, for instance, was a significant player in facilitating betting on the 2024 U.S. election, but it doesn’t operate in Canada.
Polymarket does, albeit not in Canada’s most populous province. Yes, in Ontario, Polymarket has restricted residents of the province from buying shares since May 2023, after the Ontario Securities Commission contacted the prediction market and warned them they may be breaking local securities law.
That matter only came to a final resolution last week, when a panel of Ontario’s Capital Markets Tribunal approved a settlement agreement with the operators of Polymarket “for their failure to comply with the ban on offering short-term binary options to individual investors in Ontario.”
So Polymarket’s markets related to the Canadian election are not supposed to include trading by people in Ontario (a hugely consequential province for the federal election) and the United States, where the operator has likewise agreed with regulators to cease and desist. State-regulated sportsbooks in the U.S. do not offer election betting.
Does that mean there are blind spots in what prediction markets are, well, predicting? If there are, they were there in November as well, and the projections were pretty accurate.
"The data continues to suggest that the Liberals have a clear advantage and remain the favourites to win the election," Canadian pollster David Coletto wrote on Wednesday.
