The United States and Canada have entered a trade war following the implementation of 25% tariffs on products entering the U.S. With political odds starting to carve out a bigger chunk of the betting market, some books have released odds for when U.S. president Donald Trump will remove the tariffs on Canada.
Oddsmakers believe the most likely outcome is the tariffs will stay at least until May, with that priced at +125. However, there is some optimism the tariffs could be removed as early as this month (+160) or April (+250).
Here are the betting odds for when Trump will remove the tariffs and a brief breakdown on how we got to a trade war between the long-time allies.
Trump tariff removal odds
| Time frame | Odds |
|---|---|
| March | +160 |
| April | +250 |
| Not before May 2025 | +125 |
Odds courtesy of Bet99.
Tariff timeline
In December, Donald Trump announced he would implement 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada unless those countries did a better job of controlling the flow of illegal drugs (especially fentanyl) and illegal immigrants.
After taking over the White House in January, Trump's criticisms increased with claims that his country "subsidizes" Canada to the tune of $200 billion and threats to annex the Great White North.
Despite Canada making up just 0.2% of U.S. border fentanyl seizures and Trump grossly exaggerating the trade deficit (and incorrectly referring to it as a subsidy), those claims have been repeated by other Republican politicians who have also pushed for a more aggressive approach to Canada.
Canada's response
It's always been tough to tell when Trump is being serious or blustering and playing to his base. There was optimism he wouldn't follow through on his tariff threats if Canada improved border security, which Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick previously suggested.
Despite a $1.3-billion upgrade to border security and a drop in fentanyl seizures, Trump has followed through on the threats, and Tuesday he hit Canada with 25% tariffs across the board.
Canada has retaliated by implementing 25% tariffs against $155 billion worth of American goods with additional levies set to take hold after 21 days. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also met with provincial premiers on Tuesday evening to discuss “non-tariff measures” to hit back.
Trudeau warned Canadians of tough times ahead while telling the American people that "we want to work with you as a friend and ally — and we don't want to see you hurt either, but your government has chosen to do this to you,".
Trump immediately responded on Truth Social, vowing to match any Canadian retaliatory tariffs.
On Truth Social, Trump threatens to double the tariffs on Canada after Justin Trudeau's comments. pic.twitter.com/J3rYvh86jw
— Rob Tornoe (@RobTornoe) March 4, 2025
When will the tariffs be lifted?
Lutnick said on Tuesday that Trump would “probably” announce a tariff compromise deal with Canada soon. There's certainly incentive for Trump to end things quickly given the Dow fell by almost 700 points on Tuesday with a trade war seemingly imminent.
That said, according to a Canadian government official, Trudeau isn't open to removing any retaliatory tariffs unless the U.S. lifts all levies. Sure, the Canadian economy would be hit hard by the trade war, but the U.S. would be hurt as well. It's a self-inflicted wound that Trump has the power to heal.
However Trump has never been one to back down or appear weak, and he may have painted himself into a corner with his strong posturing here. The combative president would need a concrete "win" regarding border policy to remove the tariffs while maintaining his ego.
If Trudeau and Trump don't come to a solution in the next few weeks, this will likely drag into May. Especially since Trudeau will be replaced as leader of the Liberal Party on March 9 and an election will likely be called soon after The House of Commons reopens on March 24.
That's a big reason why April has the highest odds of seeing the tariffs removed. I'd be inclined to put my money on this trade war lasting until at least May, when a Conservative Party that is more pro-Trump is expected to be in power north of the border. That party under Pierre Poilievre might be more willing to kiss Trump's ring and come to a compromise that would allow the POTUS to save face.
