Canadians can bet on the federal election using Polymarket, but they can’t (or at least they aren’t supposed to) in Ontario, and they won’t for the foreseeable future.
Key Insights
- A settlement agreement with Ontario securities regulators and the current and former operators of prediction market Polymarket was recently approved.
- The agreement includes fines and a ban on allowing Ontarians to use Polymarket.
- The agreement comes as Canadians in other provinces are still able to access Polymarket, including for wagering on the federal election.
The prohibition on Polymarket in Canada’s most populous province was highlighted last week when a panel of Ontario's Capital Markets Tribunal approved a settlement between the Ontario Securities Commission and the current and former operators of the prediction market.
That settlement agreement (signed by Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan) was in connection with the failure of the operators “to comply with the ban on offering short-term binary options to individual investors in Ontario,” according to a press release.
The two companies, Blockratize Inc. and Adventure One QSS Inc., broke Ontario securities law by offering binary options between June 2020 and May 2023 through Polymarket, the release said.
The settlement agreement says the two companies “acknowledge and admit” they breached Ontario securities law during that time.
“The Binary Options Ban prohibits the advertising, offering, selling or trading of options to individual investors in Ontario that contain a yes/no proposition regarding the future outcome of a price or event, have a term to maturity of less than 30 days and offer a fixed payout if the proposition is met or nothing if it is not,” the press release added.
This more or less sums up what Polymarket offers via its crypto-based platform, as users can buy or sell shares of “yes” or “no” in a certain outcome.
The trading at Polymarket includes action on the Canadian election set for Monday, as Polymarket traders could buy a "yes" share of Liberal leader Mark Carney to be the prime minister following the vote for around 83 cents apiece as of Wednesday afternoon. A holder of that contract could receive another 17 cents if they are correct because the contracts settle at $1.
As has been the case since May 2023, Residents of Ontario are not permitted to trade on Polymarket. Polymarket entered into a settlement agreement with the Ontario Securities Commission on April 14, 2025.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 21, 2025
However, those contract holders can’t be in Ontario, just as they can’t be in other jurisdictions where Polymarket restricts access, including the United States and the United Kingdom. That has been the case in the province since May 2023, when the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) contacted Polymarket’s operators and warned they might be violating provincial securities law.
As part of the settlement with Ontario’s securities watchdogs, Blockratize and Adventure One received two-year market bans, which means no trading of securities or derivatives.
That said, the companies are allowed to do business in the province if it is for the purpose of allowing Ontario residents to close out any existing positions with Polymarket.
Moreover, the Polymarket operators agreed to announce that Ontario residents are not allowed to wager on the prediction market site and to put procedures in place to block any Ontario-based deposits or trading, unless it's to close out existing positions.
Polymarket is not supposed to market itself to Ontarians either, and agreed to maintain terms of use that say residents of the province cannot trade on the site.
The Polymarket operators also agreed to pay a $200,000 fine, to make a “voluntary payment” of US$22,966.75, and to cough up another $25,000 to help cover the cost of the investigation.
“Binary options are risky products,” the settlement agreement says. “The Respondents contravened [Multilateral Instrument 91-102 Prohibition of Binary Options] by offering binary options in Ontario through Polymarket and exposed Ontario investors to associated risks. None of the Respondents have been granted any exemptive relief under MI 91-102 to offer binary options in Ontario.”
The settlement agreement puts the matter to rest, at least for now. It also does so in the midst of a Canadian election, on which political punters in other parts of Canada could still use Polymarket to make bets.
A nation of 'Ryans'?
While Polymarket’s “restricted jurisdictions” include Ontario, there’s no mention of Canada or other provinces in the site’s terms of use. And, as was made clear during the U.S. presidential election campaign, Polymarket could have Canadian traders on the platform.
Case in point: last July, the Wall Street Journal reported on “Ryan, a 20-year-old university student in Canada,” who was making trades on Polymarket within minutes of the attempted assassination of the current and former President Donald Trump.
Could “Ryan” be making bets on the Canadian election? It’s possible. Just as long as he isn’t in Ontario.
The settlement agreement approved on April 17 dives deeper into the workings of Polymarket, which facilitated billions of dollars in trading on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and is now doing the same on a smaller scale for the Canadian election.
Whereas the presidential election attracted more than US$3 billion in trading volume on Polymarket, wagering on Canadian election odds is a fraction of that, with more than US$60 million in volume reported for its "next prime minister" market.
“Polymarket offered the public the opportunity to ‘bet on your beliefs’ by trading in options with individuals, in Ontario and beyond, where the amount of payout was based on the outcome of a future event,” the settlement agreement notes.
Just the facts
The agreement says Blockratize and Adventure One agreed with facts that are set out in the document. And between June 16, 2020, and May 26, 2023, Polymarket offered “at least” 6,044 event contracts with “approximately over” US$254 million in trading volume.
During that period, the settlement agreement says that Polymarket earned an estimated US$22,966.75 in revenue in connection with Ontario-based trading.
“The Respondents did not engage in any compliance discussions with the Commission prior to making Polymarket available in Ontario,” the document says.
CANADIAN ELECTION ODDS (% chance of winning)
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 24, 2025
January 24th
🔵 Pierre Poilievre: 85%
🔴 Mark Carney: 15%
April 24th
🔴 Mark Carney: 85%
🔵 Pierre Poilievre: 15%
Just 4 days to go.
However, after the OSC contacted Polymarket’s operators in May 2023, the site put restrictions in place to block Ontario residents from buying shares.
The document says Delaware-based Blockratize operated Polymarket until around Jan. 10, 2022, when Panama-based Adventure One took over. Still, Polymarket's updated terms of use say Blockratize is a developer of software licensed by Adventure One.
The Ontario settlement agreement also notes that on Jan. 3, 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ordered Blockratize to stop offering contracts after finding the company violated the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations.
Polymarket has restricted access by U.S. residents since that CFTC settlement. Americans looking to wager on elections and other prediction market offerings have since turned to CFTC-regulated entities like Kalshi and Robinhood.
There were some mitigating factors to the Ontario settlement, such as that Polymarket cooperated with the OSC's investigation and voluntarily provided information that was requested.
The site also restricted access by Ontario users and updated its terms of service on Dec. 23, 2024, to note those restrictions.
