Even before President Donald Trump was elected to a second term in office, there was speculation that he – or some Republicans – might push for a change to the 22nd Amendment that would allow him to run for a third term. That discussion came to the forefront when Representative Andy Ogles (R-Tennessee) proposed an amendment to the U.S. Constitution last week that would allow just that.
Let’s break down whether this effort has any chance of success and which side you should consider taking on the Kalshi prediction market for Trump being allowed to serve a third term as president.
Will Donald Trump be allowed to run for a third term?
| Market | Price | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12¢ | 11% |
| No | 89¢ | 89% |
(Exchange prices courtesy Kalshi as of Jan. 29 at 11 a.m. ET)
The case for "Yes"
It’s difficult to come up with a case that it’s likely that Trump will be allowed to run for a third presidential term. But with Yes trading at just $0.13 at the time of this writing, perhaps we can at least consider the longshot options that might make this market worth a flier.
The path to a constitutional amendment being passed, either the one the Ogles proposed or a similar one, is extremely narrow and probably not worth assigning any significant probability to, as I’ll explain more in the section below. However, the Kalshi market allows for two possibilities for the market resolving to Yes: either a repeal or change to the 22nd Amendment, which currently restricts presidents from running for a third term, or a reinterpretation of the 22nd Amendment by the Supreme Court.
It's the latter possibility where there’s at least some potential for investors to consider. Trump already enjoys a safe 6-3 majority of conservative justices on the Supreme Court, at least some of whom seem willing at times to interpret the law to help the president.
The fanatical devotion of some Trump supporters is also a factor to consider. Plenty of elected and unelected officials have tied their careers to the current president, and might be willing to go to extreme lengths to bend the normal procedures of government to try and keep him in office for four additional years.
The case for "No"
The problem with any of that, of course, is that it’s far-fetched even in the Trump/MAGA era of American politics.
Let’s start with the possibility of a Constitutional Amendment. Proposing such an amendment would require a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and Senate; Republicans are nowhere close to having the votes to achieve that in either house, even assuming every single GOP member got behind the idea. Get past that problem with some sort of unprecedented red wave in midterms, and you’d still need 75% of all states (38, currently) to ratify the amendment for it to go into effect.
Has the Supreme Court become more politicized than ever? Sure, and some 5-4 and 6-3 decisions have been questioned on their merits. But the body still frequently decides cases in lockstep (or by overwhelming margins) when the facts of the matter simply aren’t close. Finding five votes for reinterpreting a clearly worded 22nd Amendment would be a tall task.
Furthermore, despite some public comments to the contrary, Trump has more frequently said that he’s not in favor of challenging the wording of the 22nd Amendment. The president would be 82 years old at the end of his current term, a fact that might further dissuade him from seeking a way to stay in office.
And even Trump’s current nominee for attorney general, Pam Bondi, said during her confirmation hearing that Trump would not be eligible to run again “unless they change the Constitution.”
My pick
Trump’s wild card status has investors believing that anything is possible, and I tend to agree that we can’t fully predict what’s possible during his coming four years in office. However, the price is simply too high to justify buying into Yes on this market right now.
Instead, I think No is a safe bet at $0.89, though that may not provide the kind of return investors want over four years. When the market inevitably cools, I might see Yes as a viable longshot at $0.04 or so, but unless that happens, the smart money is on No.
My pick: No (89¢)
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What is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange that allows users in the U.S. to buy and sell “Yes” and “No” contracts tied to certain event outcomes, such as elections, economic data releases, and entertainment awards.
The company – which calls itself a prediction market – was founded in 2018. It was granted its status as a designated contract market in 2020 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, an independent agency of the U.S. government.
Where is Kalshi legal?
As of now, it is available only to U.S. residents. However, because it is federally regulated, it is legal throughout the entire country, rather than on a state-by-state basis like some sportsbooks.
How does Kalshi work?
Users make their bets using event contracts that fluctuate in value until they are settled by a certain outcome. For example, someone who believes J.D. Vance will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028 can purchase a "Yes" contract for 45 cents apiece.
If Vance is the nominee, the contract would pay out a dollar, earning you a 55-cent profit for each contract you still hold. That said, between you buying and the market settling, the contract’s value will go up or down depending on your fellow traders’ opinions, and you can sell at any time. Kalshi charges a trading fee, which is how it makes its money.
