So-called “knockout blows” are rare in Canadian politics, but there is an opportunity for one to land in tonight’s English-language leaders’ debate that could shake up the polls and betting odds.
Key insights
- Tonight's English-language debate is a chance for one of Canada's political leaders to score points with voters.
- The odds and polls are currently predicting a Liberal win, a big shift from what they were suggesting late last year.
- There's likely more betting happening on this Canadian election than any other in history.
The debate scheduled for 7 p.m. ET will present a chance for Liberal leader Mark Carney to solidify his party’s lead, for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to turn the tables, and for the leaders of the Bloc Québécois and NDP to try to catch the eyes of voters.
However, as things currently stand in the polls and on the oddsboard, Canada’s 45th federal general election is looking like it’s the Liberals’ to lose.
Here's where the Canadian election odds stand @BET99ON ahead of tonight's English-language debate for the federal party leaders.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) April 17, 2025
Liberals still leading, Conservatives still trailing, and everybody else still wayyyy back: pic.twitter.com/CAAsQZV1Mm
At Bet99 in Ontario on Thursday morning, the Liberals were still significant favourites to win the election, at odds of -310. At an implied probability of 75.61%, those odds are suggesting what the polls have been suggesting: that the Liberals are ahead with voters at the moment.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, were priced as +220 underdogs and all other parties at +7,500. Similar odds exist at other Ontario-regulated sportsbooks, with the Liberals -405 to form government at FanDuel on Thursday morning and the Conservatives sitting at +250.
It’s been a steady climb for the Liberals during the campaign in both the polls and Canadian election odds. On April 8, the Liberals were priced as -250 favourites at Bet99, while the Conservatives were +175 underdogs.
There is likely more betting happening on this Canadian election than any previous trip to the polls. And there have been some big swings in the odds already.
The resignation of former prime minister Justin Trudeau earlier this year and President Donald Trump’s remarks about Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state have been catalysts for a resurgence in Liberal popularity. The Grits had been underdogs of +500 or more back in December at some sportsbooks, while the Conservatives were favourites of -900 or shorter.
Tonight’s debate could be another catalyst for a shift in the odds, as it has been a few times in the past. (A French-language debate was held on Wednesday, and earlier than originally intended so as not to conflict with a key Montreal Canadiens game.)
'You had an option, sir'
Perhaps the most notable example of a big debate moment happened more than 40 years ago. That was when Progressive Conservative leader Brian Mulroney hit then-Liberal Prime Minister John Turner with a stunner during the 1984 federal leaders' debate.
Former prime minister Pierre Trudeau had made a raft of appointments on the way out the door, and Mulroney declared to Turner that “You had an option, sir” to say no to those moves.
After Turner’s lacklustre response, Mulroney and the Conservatives cruised to a massive win in the election over the already teetering Liberals.
Will we see something similar tonight? Probably not, but election bettors might want to keep an eye on the debate all the same.
