With Canada on the verge of its next federal election, the Conservatives have seen their once-massive odds lead completely disappear.
The Conservative party, once an overwhelming favorite, is now just slightly behind the governing Liberals, with Prime Minister Mark Carney calling a snap election for April 28.
With the election just a month away, here are the latest Canadian election odds for 2025.
2025 Canadian Federal Election odds
| Party |  |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Liberal Party |
-135 | 57.45% |
 Conservative Party |
-110 | 52.38% |
 New Democratic Party |
+20000 | 0.50% |
 Bloc Quebecois |
+20000 | 0.50% |
 Green Party |
+75000 | 0.13% |
 People's Party of Canada |
+100000 | 0.10% |
Canadian Election odds see huge shift
The Conservative Party is now at -110 at BET99, trailing the once-floundering Liberals. The resignation of Justin Trudeau — and subsequent nomination of Carney as Prime Minister — has turned Canadian politics on its face, eliminating a massive Conservative edge that saw the Pierre Poilievre-led party carry a -2000 (95.2% implied probability) price at the start of January.
The Liberal Party has subsequently moved from a +900 (10% probability) longshot to -135, with the momentum squarely in Carney's favor on the eve of a likely election call.
The New Democratic Party is tied for third place with the Bloc Quebecois at +20000. With the Liberal Party tanking at the polls in December, there was a strong chance that the NDP would be able to siphon leftist voters. But with the Liberals back in contention and gaining ground on the Conservatives, that looks less likely.
A survey from Ipsos released last week suggests that if an election were held today, 38% of Canadians would support the Liberals with 36% backing the Conservatives. That's a huge shift from seven weeks ago when the Conservatives held a 26-point lead in Ipsos polls.
Trudeau's resignation gives boost to Liberals
With Canada's economy struggling amid a housing crisis and the health care system in shambles, polls have indicated the majority of Canadians want a change in government.
With many in his own party turning against him, embattled Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Jan. 6 that he would resign once a new party leader was selected.
The imminent departure of the increasingly unpopular Trudeau has clearly helped the Liberals. In fact, a poll from Léger Marketing says that with Carney as leader, Liberal support would rise to 40% while the Conservatives would be at 38%.
The Trump effect
Nothing brings people together like a common enemy, and Donald Trump's recent attacks against Canada have only strengthened support behind the government. Trump recently referred to the PM as Governor Trudeau and said Canada should be the 51st state.
More importantly, he has threatened tariffs against Canada, saying that the US "subsidizes" Canada to the tune of $200 billion (he was referring to a trade deficit which is significantly lower) and claiming that "drugs are pouring" into the US across the border.
While Trudeau remains widely unpopular north of the border, the antagonistic behavior of Trump has turned many against the seemingly pro-MAGA policies of the Conservative Party under Poilievre.
A recent Ipsos Poll asked which potential Canadian leader would "roll over and accept whatever Trump demands" and Poilievre led that category with 31% of the vote. Meanwhile, Trudeau had 22% with just 6% saying the same for Carney.
When will the Canadian election take place?
Under Canadian law, the federal election had to happen by October 20, but we won't have to wait that long as Carney called a snap election last weekend, sending Canadians to the polls on April 28.
Canadian Election odds movement: A roller coaster in 2025
Here is a look at the wild ride the Canadian Election odds have taken since mid-December (courtesy of BET99), when then-deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation.
Who will win the popular vote in the Canadian Election?
| Party | |
|---|---|
| Liberals | -125 |
| Conservatives | +100 |
Will the Liberals win a majority?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Yes | -105 |
| No | -120 |
How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| 170+ | +250 |
| 160-169 | +800 |
| 150-159 | +900 |
| 140-149 | +625 |
| 130-139 | +300 |
| 120-129 | +450 |
| 110-119 | +900 |
| 100-109 | +2000 |
There are 338 seats in the House of Commons and to win the Canadian election a party needs to win more seats than any other party. However, a party must win at least 170 seats to obtain a majority government.
With a majority government, the ruling party can enact legislation without needing to cooperate with opposition parties. In the 2015 federal election, Trudeau and the Liberals won a majority with 184 seats. However, that shifted to a minority government with 157 seats in 2019 and 160 in 2021.
Back on Jan. 7, election projections at PoliWave had the Conservatives dominating the election by winning a whopping 250 seats (80 more than needed for a majority government) with the Liberals falling behind the Bloc Quebecois and NDP with just 21 seats. Even as recently as Feb. 28, PoliWave had the Conservatives at 168 with the Liberals at 132.
That split is no longer in play. As of March 18, PoliWave is projecting the Liberals to capture 174 seats, with the Conservatives' number dwindling to 135.
How many seats will the Liberal Party win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| 200+ | +1000 |
| 190-199 | +800 |
| 180-189 | +425 |
| 170-179 | +300 |
| 160-169 | +325 |
| 150-159 | +700 |
| Under 150 | +300 |
How many seats will the NDP win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | -110 |
| Under 7.5 | -100 |
How many seats will the Bloc Quebecois win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Over 23.5 | -110 |
| Under 23.5 | -110 |
Where can I bet on Canadian election odds?
As the Canadian Federal election is a niche market, you may have to shop around to find a sportsbook that offers odds. Check out the best Canadian sportsbooks available where you live to see which election bets are available.
