The Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, and sportsbooks have released odds for the next political party to win the House of Commons.
Although incumbent prime minister Justin Trudeau has led the government since 2015, his popularity is at an all-time low and there have been calls for him to resign. Even if he does step down, his Liberal party will have a tough time staying in power since the Conservative party under Pierre Poilievre is a massive favorite, with election odds as steep as -2500.
With the New Democrat Party recently announcing that they'll support a motion of non-confidence, expect an election early next year. Here are the Canadian election odds for 2025.
2025 Canadian Federal Election odds
| Party |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | -2000 | -900 |
| Liberal Party | +800 | +500 |
| New Democratic Party | +2500 | +4000 |
| Bloc Québécois | +5000 | +8000 |
| Green Party | +20000 | +50000 |
| People's Party of Canada | +20000 | +75000 |
Odds as of Friday, December 20, 2024.
The Conservative Party is currently a -2000 favorite at SportsInteraction for an implied probability of 95.2%. Meanwhile, the Liberal party has been in power for almost a decade but is at +800 (implied probability of 11.1%) to retain the house.
The New Democratic Party is in third place at +2500 and while it's long been the third main political party in Canada, it doesn't have a realistic chance of winning. The NDP earned 30.6% of the vote in 2011 and became the Official Opposition for four years but was the only time since the party was founded in 1961 that they won more than 20% of the vote.
With Canada's economy struggling with a housing crisis and the health care system in shambles, polls indicate that the majority of Canadians want change. Conservatives have been leading the polls by at least 10 points since September of 2022 and the gap has only gotten wider.
An Abacus Data poll conducted in November had the Conservatives at 43%, a whopping 22 points ahead of the Liberals who are tied with the NDP at 21%. Meanwhile, an Ipsos Poll earlier this week suggested that 78% of Canadians believe it's time for a new government
The recent dominant victory by Donald Trump in the U.S. election has fueled speculation that we could also see a surge in Conservative voters north of the border. Trump immediately threw gas on the fire by threatening a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and trolled Trudeau by referring to him as the governor of the "Great State of Canada."
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned on Monday and that, alongside the slumping polls, has led to calls for Trudeau to also step down. Even if he does, the Liberal Party will have a tough time turning around public opinion within 10 months.
When Will the Canadian Election take place?
Under Canadian law, the federal election will have to happen by October 20. That said, it is possible for an election to take place earlier, if the PM either calls a snap election or if opposition parties force an election through a vote of non-confidence.
Given how poorly the Liberals are performing in the polls, it would be political suicide for Trudeau to call a snap election so that's clearly not an option. The opposition parties all need to be in unison for a vote of no confidence and the NDP had previously blocked that from happening. However, on December 20, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced that he would bring forward a motion of non-confidence at the next sitting of the House of Commons.
It was a surprising move since this will likely usher in either a Conservative Majority Government or lead to an alliance between them and the Bloc or PPC that will control the House. Either way, the NDP will be left on the sidelines. However, the rock-bottom popularity for Trudeau would create an opportunity for Singh to bring former Liberal voters to the NDP.
The House of Commons will be on break until Jan. 27 so that will be the earliest that the parties will be able to take a vote of non-confidence and prepare for an election.
Who will be the next prime minister of Canada?
Since the Canadian prime minister is the leader of whichever party has the most seats in the House of Commons, you won't see outright odds to be the next Prime Minister of Canada. Current PM Justin Trudeau has been at the helm of the Liberal party since 2013 but his grip on the party is slipping.
Trudeau is the son of former PM Pierre Trudeau and he was viewed as the "rock star" of Canadian politics after leading the Liberals to a majority government in the 2015 federal election.
Many world leaders saw their popularity plummet after enacting COVID regulations and the subsequent economic fallout. However, Trudeau and the Liberal government had been negatively affected by a series of political blunders even before that.
In 2016, Trudeau was found guilty of breaking conflict of interest rules and in 2019 he ejected Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould from the Liberal caucus after she accused the Prime Minister's office of pressuring her to help engineering firm SNC-Lavalin avoid criminal prosecution.
Photos also emerged of Trudeau wearing blackface on multiple occasions. The treatment of Wilson-Raybould and the blackface pictures were particularly damning for Trudeau since he had positioned himself as a champion of social justice, feminism, and diversity.
Despite those scandals, Trudeau was able to scrape out an election win in 2021. But the soaring cost of living for Canadians with the blame landing at the feet of the current government will make it tougher to win again. Especially with incoming US president Donald Trump threatening crippling tariffs against a Canadian government he's been highly critical of.
The person most likely to replace Trudeau as the PM is current Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre has promised to limit immigration, cut the carbon tax, ease regulations on resource development, and lower taxes for the average Canadian. All with the goal of sparking the economy.
Although, Poilievre doesn't have Trump's cult of personality, he's also a populist conservative and his brand of politics will align better with MAGA polices and likely soften Trump's approach to trade.
How many seats does the winning party have to claim in the House of Commons?
There are 338 seats in the House of Commons and to win the Canadian election a party simply needs to win more seats than any other party. However, to win a majority government a party must win at least 170 seats.
With a majority government, the ruling party can enact legislation without needing to cooperate with opposition parties. In the 2015 federal election, Trudeau and the Liberals won a majority with 184. However, that shifted to a minority government with 157 seats in 2019 and 160 in 2021.
Despite winning the 2019 and 2021 elections, the Liberals actually trailed the Conservatives in the popular vote both times. A big reason for that is because the NDP siphons a significant portion (17.8% of the popular vote in 2021) of left-wing voters. It will be interesting to see if the People's Party of Canada, which earned 4.9% of the vote in 2021, will have a similar effect on the Conservative Party.
With extremely lopsided odds on which party will win the election, bettors might wait to see what prop markets books will release closer to the election. In 2021, there were bets on who would win the popular vote as well as O/U for number of seats won and popular vote percentages.
Where can I bet on Canadian election odds?
As the Canadian Federal election is a niche market, you may have to shop around to find a sportsbook that offers odds. Check out the best Canadian sportsbooks available where you live to see which election bets are available.
