With Canada on the verge of its next federal election, the Liberal party has solidified it's lead atop the odds board. This bodes well for the incumbent Liberals and new Prime Minister Mark Carney who called a snap election for April 28.
The Conservative party, an overwhelming favorite just three months ago, now trail the Liberals and are falling further behind in the most recent polls. With the election just four weeks away, here are the latest Canadian election odds for 2025.
2025 Canadian Federal Election odds
| Party |  |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Liberal Party |
-180 | 64.1% |
 Conservative Party |
+125 | 44.4% |
 New Democratic Party |
+20000 | 0.50% |
 Bloc Quebecois |
+20000 | 0.50% |
 Green Party |
+75000 | 0.13% |
 People's Party of Canada |
+100000 | 0.10% |
Odds as of April 1, 2025
Canadian Election odds see huge shift
The Conservative Party is now at +125 at BET99, trailing the once-floundering Liberals. Justin Trudeau's resignation — and subsequent nomination of Carney as Prime Minister — has turned Canadian politics on its face, eliminating a massive Conservative edge that saw the Pierre Poilievre-led party carry a -2000 (95.2% implied probability) price at the start of January.
The Liberal Party has subsequently moved from a +900 (10% probability) long shot to -180, with the momentum squarely in Carney's favor four weeks away from the election.
The New Democratic Party is tied for third place with the Bloc Quebecois at +20000. Much of the momentum for the Liberal Party has come at the expense of the NDP who are projected to lose most of their 25 seats. Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair even encouraged leftist voters not to split the vote and and advocated for a united front to combat the "existential crisis" facing the country.
A three-day rolling poll by Nanos Research ending March 31, has 45% of Canadians supporting the Liberals with 37% backing the Conservatives. A poll by the Angus Reid Institute also gives the Liberals an 8-point lead. That's a huge shift from three weeks ago when the Conservatives held a 26-point advantage.
Trudeau's resignation gives boost to Liberals
With Canada's economy struggling amid a housing crisis and the health care system in shambles, polls at the end of last year indicated that the majority of Canadians wanted a change in government.
With many in his own party turning against him, embattled Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Jan. 6 that he would resign once a new party leader was selected.
The departure of the increasingly unpopular Trudeau has helped the Liberals, who have surged following Carney's takeover. Immediately after Trudeau announced his impending resignation, the Liberals gained nearly seven points in the polls and gained even more ground after Carney was officially named the party leader on March 9.
As the former governor of the Bank of Canada (2008 to 2013) as well the governor of the Bank of England (2013 to 2020), Carney is hoping that his credentials as a financial expert will help him win this election.
The Trump effect
Nothing brings people together like a common enemy, and Donald Trump's recent attacks against Canada have strengthened support behind the incumbent government. Trump referred to the PM as Governor Trudeau and has repeatedly mentioned the possibility of annexing Canada.
More importantly, he has levied a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods, which resulted in the Canadian government responding with additional tariffs of their own. Canadians have embraced the "elbows up" slogan as a sign of resistance and have turned against the Conservative Party's association with the MAGA movement.
Conservative Alberta premier Danielle Smith provoked controversy with a recent interview on Breitbart News where she suggested that the Conservatives under Poilievre were "in sync" with the direction of Trump.
A recent Ipsos Poll shows that Carney is considered the best candidate to manage during tough economic times (15-point lead on Poilievre) and more likely to stand up to President Trump (+12 pts).
Has the Pendulum Swung Too Far?
It might be time to time to question if the markets are a bit too bullish towards Carney and the Liberals. While the odds at the start of the year seemed way too pessimistic on the Liberals chances of staying in power, the recent lines don't make much sense especially in some of the other markets.
The Liberals are now -180 favorites to win the popular vote and-135 to win a majority government. Those odds indicate liability from the books since they were -125 to win the popular vote and -105 to win a majority just a week ago, despite little difference at the polls.
The Liberals failed to do either of those things in the past two elections, and it's tough to see them doing any better this time, given the downward trajectory of the economy.
It's also worth wondering whether Carney's popularity has peaked, and there's nowhere to go but down now that the media will be scrutinizing his every move. He has recently been criticized for simply taking Conservative ideas, such as getting rid of the consumer carbon tax, and making them part of his own platform.
He has also come under fire for incorrectly naming Concordia as the site of the 1989 Polytechnique massacre — and screwing up the last name of a survivor who is running as a Liberal candidate. Every mistake from Carney will be magnified from here on out.
When will the Canadian election take place?
Under Canadian law, the federal election had to happen by October 20, but we won't have to wait that long as Carney called a snap election, sending Canadians to the polls on April 28.
Canadian Election odds movement: A roller coaster in 2025
Here is a look at the wild ride the Canadian Election odds have taken since mid-December (courtesy of BET99), when then-deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation.
Who will win the popular vote in the Canadian Election?
| Party | |
|---|---|
| Liberals | -180 |
| Conservatives | +140 |
Will the Liberals win a majority?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Yes | -135 |
| No | +100 |
How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| 170+ | +250 |
| 160-169 | +800 |
| 150-159 | +900 |
| 140-149 | +625 |
| 130-139 | +300 |
| 120-129 | +450 |
| 110-119 | +900 |
| 100-109 | +2000 |
There are 338 seats in the House of Commons, and a party needs to win more seats than any other party to win the Canadian election. However, a party must win at least 170 seats to obtain a majority government.
With a majority government, the ruling party can enact legislation without needing to cooperate with opposition parties. In the 2015 federal election, Trudeau and the Liberals won a majority with 184 seats. However, that shifted to a minority government with 157 seats in 2019 and 160 in 2021.
Back on Jan. 7, election projections at PoliWave had the Conservatives dominating the election by winning a whopping 250 seats (80 more than needed for a majority government), with the Liberals falling behind the Bloc Quebecois and NDP with just 21 seats.
As recently as Feb. 28, PoliWave had the Conservatives at 168 with the Liberals at 132. That split is no longer in play. As of April 1, PoliWave is projecting the Liberals to capture 196 seats, with the Conservatives' number dwindling to 116.
How many seats will the Liberal Party win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| 200+ | +550 |
| 190-199 | +500 |
| 180-189 | +320 |
| 170-179 | +300 |
| 160-169 | +400 |
| 150-159 | +700 |
| Under 150 | +300 |
How many seats will the NDP win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | -110 |
| Under 7.5 | -110 |
This might be the most staggering line on the Canadian betting board, but it makes sense given recent polls. As of March 27, National polling is projecting the NDP to win just three seats with a likely range of 1-10.
That said, the NDP currently have 25 seats and have never finished with fewer than nine in an election since the party was formed in 1961. They've won at least 20 seats in the last six elections and peaked with 103 seats and official opposition status under Jack Layton in 2011.
An O/U of 7.5 seats seems crazy for a party that has long been the choice for many left-wing voters. Especially considering the mixed messaging and poor results under Liberal leadership over the last several years.
With the Liberal Party tanking at the polls in December, many believed that the NDP would be able to siphon leftist voters. But with the Liberals back in the lead the NDP have plummeted and are projected to have their worst results in history.
How many seats will the Bloc Quebecois win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Over 23.5 | -110 |
| Under 23.5 | -110 |
Where can I bet on Canadian election odds?
As the Canadian Federal election is a niche market, you may have to shop around to find a sportsbook that offers odds. Check out the best Canadian sportsbooks available where you live to see which election bets are available.
