The Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, and sportsbooks have released odds for the next political party to win the House of Commons.
With the ruling Liberal Party tanking at the polls, incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he'll step down as party leader. Even with a new leader, the Liberals will have a tough time staying in power since the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre is a massive favorite, with election odds at -2000.
With the New Democrat Party recently announcing it will support a motion of non-confidence, expect an election in the spring after Parliament resumes on March 24. Here are the Canadian election odds for 2025.
2025 Canadian Federal Election odds
| Party |  |
|---|---|
| Conservative Party | -2000 |
| Liberal Party | +900 |
| New Democratic Party | +3300 |
| Bloc Québécois | +6600 |
| Green Party | +20000 |
| People's Party of Canada | +20000 |
Odds as of Tuesday, January 7, 2025.
Canadians want change
The Conservative Party is currently a -2000 favorite at Sports Interaction for an implied probability of 95.2%. Meanwhile, the Liberal party has been in power for almost a decade but is at +900 (implied probability of 10%) to retain the house.
The New Democratic Party is in third place at +3300, and while it's long been Canada's third primary political party, it doesn't have a realistic chance of winning. The NDP earned 30.6% of the vote in 2011 and became the Official Opposition for four years but that was the only time since the party was founded in 1961 that it won more than 20% of the vote.
With Canada's economy struggling amid a housing crisis and the health care system in shambles, polls indicate the majority of Canadians want change. Conservatives have been leading the polls by at least 10 points since September of 2022 and the gap has only gotten wider.
The most recent election projections at PoliWave have the Conservatives dominating the election with 250 seats (80 more than needed for a majority government) with the Liberals falling behind the Bloc Quebecois and NDP with just 21 seats.
Trudeau finally gave in to the growing chorus of critics and announced his resignation on January 6.
"This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I'm having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election," the embattled PM said during a press conference on Monday.
Even with the departure of the increasingly unpopular Trudeau, the Liberals will have a difficult time turning around public opinion after serving as the longest-running minority government in Canadian history.
When will the Canadian Election take place?
Under Canadian law, the federal election will have to happen by October 20. An election can take place earlier if the PM either calls a snap election or if opposition parties force one through a vote of non-confidence.
The House of Commons was scheduled to be on break until Jan. 27 but Governor General Mary Simon agreed to prorogue Parliament until March 24. That will give the Liberals time to choose a new leader and push a confidence vote until then.
The opposition parties all need to be in unison for a vote of no confidence and the NDP had previously blocked that from happening. However, in December NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced he would bring forward a motion of non-confidence at the next sitting of the House of Commons.
There's a slim chance that the NDP will rekindle its alliance with a new Liberal leader but it's more likely that Singh will follow through on his word and there'll be an election in the spring.
With Trudeau resigning and Parliament proroguing until March 24, FanDuel has "Spring (March - May 2025)" as a -260 favourite for the next Canadian federal election: pic.twitter.com/RkgN0nNRnu
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) January 6, 2025
Who will be the next prime minister of Canada?
Since the Canadian prime minister is the leader of whichever party has the most seats in the House of Commons, you won't see outright odds to be the next prime minister of Canada. Justin Trudeau had been at the helm of the Liberal Party since 2013 but his popularity plummeted over his eight years in power.
The soaring cost of living and the floundering economy were the final nails in the coffin for Trudeau who lost the support of his own party. Some books have released odds for the next permanent leader of the Liberal Party with Mark Carney the front-runner at +120.
Carney is the former governor of the Bank of Canada and was hired by Trudeau in the fall as a special adviser on economic growth. In December, Trudeau told Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland that Carney would replace her in her secondary role as Finance Minister. That triggered her resignation and Carney also walked away from the position.
Ironically, Freeland has the second-best odds to be the next Liberal leader at +125. Freeland had served in Trudeau's cabinet in a variety of influential posts, most recently as the deputy prime minister for five years. She managed to avoid the political fallout surrounding Trudeau by resigning from her post on Dec. 16 and lambasted the former PM for "costly political gimmicks."
The person most likely to be the next prime minister is Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre has promised to limit immigration, cut the carbon tax, ease regulations on resource development, and lower taxes for the average Canadian, all to spark the economy.
Poilievre was interviewed by controversial political pundit Jordan Peterson last week where he outlined his policies and strategy. The nearly two-hour interview had more than 3 million views on YouTube within five days.
Although Poilievre doesn't have Donald Trump's cult of personality, he's also a populist conservative. His brand of politics aligns better with MAGA policies and could soften Trump's stance on trade.
How many seats does the winning party have to claim in the House of Commons?
There are 338 seats in the House of Commons and to win the Canadian election a party simply needs to win more seats than any other party. However, a party must win at least 170 seats to obtain a majority government.
With a majority government, the ruling party can enact legislation without needing to cooperate with opposition parties. In the 2015 federal election, Trudeau and the Liberals won a majority with 184 seats. However, that shifted to a minority government with 157 seats in 2019 and 160 in 2021.
Despite winning the 2019 and 2021 elections, the Liberals actually trailed the Conservatives in the popular vote both times. In the past, some left-wingers voted Liberal because they saw supporting the NDP as a throw-away vote at the federal level. With the Liberals expected to be crushed, those leftists might abandon the sinking ship of the Liberal Party and vote NDP in 2025.
With extremely lopsided odds on which party will win the election, bettors might wait to see what prop markets books will release closer to the election. In 2021, there were bets on who would win the popular vote as well as O/U for number of seats won and popular vote percentages.
Where can I bet on Canadian election odds?
As the Canadian Federal election is a niche market, you may have to shop around to find a sportsbook that offers odds. Check out the best Canadian sportsbooks available where you live to see which election bets are available.
