Just three days away from the election, the Liberals maintain a strong lead atop the Canadian Federal Election odds board as -600 favourites.
However, the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre is still in play at +290, and polls indicate they're narrowing the gap with the election set for April 28.
Things have been trending in the Liberals' direction ever since new Prime Minister Mark Carney took over for Justin Trudeau, and last week's debates did nothing to change that.
With more than seven million Canadians having already voted in advanced polls, here are the latest Canadian election odds for 2025.
2025 Canadian Federal Election odds
| Party |  |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Liberal Party |
-600 | 85.7% |
 Conservative Party |
+290 | 25.6% |
| Any other party | +7500 | 1.32% |
Odds as of April 25, 2025
- 📆 The 45th Canadian Federal Election will take place on April 28, 2025.
- 🔥Favourite: The Liberal Party (-600)
- ⬇️ The Conservative Party (+290)
Canadian Election poll projections
Just days away from the election, the Liberal Party is a commanding -600 (85% implied probability) favorite at BET99 to win the election. It's been a historic turnaround for the Liberals, who were massive underdogs at +900 (10% probability) at the start of the New Year.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party has been trending in the opposite direction and is now +290 (25.6% probability). Justin Trudeau's resignation — and subsequent nomination of Carney as Prime Minister — has turned Canadian politics on its head, eliminating a massive Conservative edge that saw the Pierre Poilievre-led party carry a -2000 (95.2% probability) price in January.
Not only are the Liberals expected to carry the election, but they are at -160 to win a majority, despite falling well short of the 170 seats needed for that in the last two elections.
The party leaders held debates in French and English last week. The debates gave the leaders a national audience to reiterate the platforms they've been repeating during their campaigns. There were no knockout blows, gaffes, or surprises, and the polls didn't see much change as a result.
That said, it was more clear than ever that this is a two-horse race, with the NDP and Bloc Québécois leaders took an obvious back seat to Carney and Poilievre. In fact, the other parties have fallen so far in the polls that they aren't individually listed anymore, with "Any Other Party" priced at +7500.
The latest polling by Nanos Research has 42.7% of Canadians supporting the Liberals, with 38.4% backing the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the poll tracker at the CBC gives the Liberals a 3.7-point lead (42.3 to 38.6) over the Tories.
Canadian Election odds favourite: Liberal Party -600
With Canada's economy slumping and the health care system in shambles, polls at the end of last year indicated that the majority of Canadians wanted a change in government. With his own party turning against him, embattled Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Jan. 6 that he would resign once a new party leader was selected.
The departure of the increasingly unpopular PM has helped the Liberals, who have surged following Carney's takeover. As the former governor of the Bank of Canada (2008 to 2013) as well as the governor of the Bank of England (2013 to 2020), Carney is hoping that his credentials as a financial expert will help him win over voters.
Support for the Liberals has plateaued in recent weeks, which might indicate that the boost of a new leader may have hit a ceiling. Carney has come under fire for taking parts of the Conservative platform (like getting rid of the carbon tax) and making them his own. He's also under the microscope for potential conflicts of interest with his own finances.
Interestingly, while the polls have slightly narrowed over the last month, the odds continue to getting wider Liberals have shifted from -275 on the odds board to -400.
Odds of Liberal Party winning next election: -600
Canadian Election odds: Conservative Party +290
Just three months ago, the Conservatives were in the driver's seat and looked like a lock to win the election. However, a few things have occurred that have seen them tumble in the polls and, subsequently, the political odds board.
The resignation of Trudeau obviously had an impact, but the ongoing trade war with the United States has been even more detrimental to the Tories. The Conservative party has done a poor job at distancing itself from the looming shadow of US President Donals Trump and right-wing populism.
Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke has criticized his party's inadequate messaging around what it would do to try and stop the tariffs and annexationist threats from Trump. He has even said that Poilievre is too "Trump-y" with his political attacks, and that he needs to pivot to regain ground.
While the latest surveys at Abacus Data give Poilievre a favourable rating of 40% positive, that's offset by a 45% negative rating. Carney has an even better favourable rating at 48%, and his negative rating is far lower at 28%.
That said, Conservative support is actually the highest it has been in 14 years, at nearly 39%. It isn't that they've lost support, but the Liberal Party has gained the support that used to belong to the NDP.
Odds of Conservatives winning next election: +290
Canadian Election odds movement: A roller coaster in 2025
Here is a look at the wild ride the Canadian Election odds have taken since mid-December (courtesy of BET99), when then-deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation.
Canadian Election odds: Who will win the popular vote?
| Party | |
|---|---|
| Liberals | -175 |
| Conservatives | +125 |
Canadian Election odds: Will the Liberals win a majority?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Yes | -160 |
| No | +125 |
How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| 211 or more | +3500 |
| 200-210 | +2500 |
| 180-199 | +950 |
| 160-179 | +380 |
| 140-159 | +230 |
| 120-139 | -105 |
| 100-119 | +550 |
| 99 or less | +1900 |
There are 338 seats in the House of Commons, and a party needs to win more seats than any other party to win the Canadian election. However, a party must win at least 170 seats to obtain a majority government.
With a majority government, the ruling party can enact legislation without needing to cooperate with opposition parties. In the 2015 federal election, Trudeau and the Liberals won a majority with 184 seats. However, that shifted to a minority government with 157 seats in 2019 and 160 in 2021.
Back on Jan. 7, election projections at PoliWave had the Conservatives dominating the election by winning a whopping 250 seats (80 more than needed for a majority government), with the Liberals falling behind the Bloc Quebecois and NDP with just 21 seats.
As recently as Feb. 28, PoliWave had the Conservatives at 168 and the Liberals at 132. That lead is long gone. As of April 10, PoliWave is projecting the Liberals to capture 193 seats, with the Conservatives' number at 121.
How many seats will the Liberal Party win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| 211 or more | +900 |
| 200-210 | +850 |
| 180-199 | +300 |
| 160-179 | -160 |
| 140-159 | +335 |
| 120-139 | +1100 |
| 100-119 | +1900 |
| 99 or less | +3500 |
How many seats will the NDP win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | +100 |
| Under 7.5 | -125 |
Much of the momentum for the Liberal Party has come at the expense of the NDP, who are projected to lose most of their 25 seats. With the Liberal Party tanking at the polls in December, many believed that the NDP would be able to siphon off leftist voters.
But with the Liberals back in the lead, the NDP have plummeted and are projected to have their worst results in history. It doesn't help that former NDP leader Tom Mulcair encouraged leftist voters not to split the vote and advocated for a united front to combat the "existential crisis" facing the country.
As of April 15, National polling is projecting the NDP to win just five seats, with a likely range of 3-13.
The NDP currently have 25 seats and have never finished with fewer than nine in an election since the party was formed in 1961. They've won at least 20 seats in the last six elections and peaked with 103 seats under Jack Layton in 2011.
How many seats will the Bloc Quebecois win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Over 20.5 | -130 |
| Under 20.5 | +115 |
Where can I bet on Canadian election odds?
As the Canadian Federal election is a niche market, you may have to shop around to find a sportsbook that offers odds. Check out the best Canadian sportsbooks available where you live to see which election bets are available.
