Two of the most influential women in America are the people's choice for 2024 Time Person of the Year.
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and global entertainment icon Taylor Swift lead the way in a Covers survey of more than 2,000 respondents. Vice President Harris topped both of our main survey questions, while Swift – who earned the distinction in 2023 – came in second.
In terms of betting value, however, these two are far apart. Harris is the No. 2 favorite at -125 (odds courtesy of FanDuel Canada) in our latest Time Person of the Year odds, while Swift is well down the list at +1,400. For context, former U.S. president Richard Nixon is the only person to be named Time Person of the Year in consecutive years.
Here's a look at the results of our survey, in which we asked respondents to provide up to three names for each question:
Who do you think will win the Time Person of the Year award in 2024?
| Person | Industry/Field | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | Politics | 52.5% |
| Taylor Swift | Entertainment | 49.5% |
| Artificial Intelligence | Technology | 35.5% |
| Elon Musk | Technology | 26.2% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | Politics | 23.2% |
| Joe Biden | Politics | 21.8% |
| Donald Trump | Politics | 20.8% |
| Ryan Reynolds | Entertainment | 16.6% |
| Beyonce | Entertainment | 12.6% |
| MrBeast | Entertainment | 11.2% |
The gap between the Harris/Swift duo and the rest of the field is significant.
Only one other choice received a third of all responses: And this "Person of the Year" candidate isn't a person at all. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a solid third choice among respondents, matching where it sits in the odds table at +320. It would be the first non-person to earn the honor since "The Endangered Earth" in 1988, and the first piece of technology to earn its own cover since "The Computer" in 1982.
Two other notable trends emerge here:
- Former president Donald Trump, listed as the -130 favorite to appear on his second Time Person of the Year Cover, is a distant seventh on this list at just 20.8%
- Right behind him are three fixtures of the entertainment industry who carry much lower real-life odds: Ryan Reynolds (+2300), Beyonce (+3400) and MrBeast (+850).
The gender split for this question is striking, with Swift appearing on well over 50% of women's total responses, compared to just 43.6% of the men's answers. AI was also included in the men's responses at a 38.82% rate, compared with just 33.67% for our women respondents.
Not surprisingly, Trump's name appeared more prominently among older respondents.
Who do you think should win the Time Person of the Year award in 2024?
| Person | Industry/Field | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | Politics | 45% |
| Taylor Swift | Entertainment | 33.6% |
| Artificial Intelligence | Technology | 29.4% |
| Elon Musk | Technology | 28.5% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | Politics | 25.3% |
| Donald Trump | Politics | 24.5% |
| Joe Biden | Politics | 22.9% |
| Ryan Reynolds | Entertainment | 21.5% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Politics | 14.9% |
| Beyonce | Entertainment | 14.4% |
The top five here might be identical to that of the first list, but the differences in share tell some interesting stories:
- Harris's overall percentage is lower, but the gap between her and the rest of the field is considerably larger. As mentioned in the Time Person of the Year odds feature, elected presidents have taken home this distinction in seven of the previous eight election years, and the historical significance of a woman of color ascending to the highest office in America would all but assure her of the nod.
- Trump moves up a spot here to No. 6, as respondents acknowledge that he belongs at or near the top of the list of worthy candidates.
- MRBeast takes a seat in favor of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, an expected development given the enormous spotlight politics has shined on 2024.
It's also worth mentioning that six of the top seven people on this list have been on the Time Person of the Year cover before, with AI the only outcast.
While the trends among women respondents closely match the overall list, the men's responses once again revealed a strong contrast. Kamala finished just over five percent ahead of both Musk and AI, with Zelenskyy and Trump also finishing ahead of Swift in this category.
Did you know you can bet on the Time Person of the Year award?
| Response | Share |
|---|---|
| No | 91.4% |
| Yes | 8.6% |
Novelty markets are relatively new to the North American sports betting space – but as the national market matures and sports betting sites look for different ways to engage both with current bettors and prospective customers, you can expect to see more opportunities to wager on non-sports events.
An overwhelming majority of respondents weren't aware that wagering is permitted on Time Person of the Year, though this market isn't widely available in the U.S. at present.
How likely would you be to bet on the Time Person of the Year award if you could?
| Likelihood | Share |
|---|---|
| Very Unlikely | 52.8% |
| Unlikely | 22.6% |
| Neutral | 12.6% |
| Likely | 8.6% |
| Very Likely | 3.3% |
Not all betting markets are "betting" markets – in some cases, people just like knowing the odds to identify the favorites and underdogs.
Even if the Time Person of the Year was widely available for wagering, more than three in four respondents say they likely wouldn't put any money on it; another one in eight are on the fence. that leaves just under one in eight who would likely place a bet.
That number might rise as people become more accustomed to having the option to wager on these markets, but for now, respondents say they would steer clear.
Methodology
We surveyed 2,006 Americans from Oct. 3-4; here's the demographic breakdown:
Gender
| Gender | Rate |
|---|---|
| Female | 60.12% |
| Male | 37.24% |
| Non-Binary | 1.79% |
| Did Not Specify | 0.25% |
Age
| Age Group | Rate |
|---|---|
| 18 to 24 | 9.52% |
| 25 to 34 | 29.91% |
| 35 to 44 | 24.03% |
| 45 to 54 | 2.09% |
| 55 to 64 | 11.17% |
| 65 and over | 5.93% |
Political Affiliation
| Party | Rate |
|---|---|
| Democrat | 42.17% |
| Republican | 21.64% |
| Independent | 33.25% |
| Don't Know | 2.94% |
