Kalshi is on the cusp of diving deeper into a very sports betting-like business.
The prediction market filed documents on Wednesday to "self-certify" contracts that could cover a variety of sporting events and outcomes, not just team championships such as the Super Bowl.
The “Will <achievement> be held by <participant>?” contract is set to be listed for trading on Thursday, according to the filing with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Phrasing and an example provided by Kalshi in the documents suggest those achievements and participants could be almost anything or anyone from the wide world of sports.
Participation trophies
The contract is “relating to American sports leagues,” Kalshi said, and will operate like the federally regulated company’s other event markets.
Participant “refers to a group, an entity, individuals, or individual participating in a sport,” the terms and conditions state. Achievement, meanwhile, “refers to a given sports achievement, and will include a specified year and/or other distinguishing information, e.g., ‘The 2025 winner of the French Open Men’s Singles Championship.’”
In short, a Kalshi user could buy a contract that says "yes," Jannik Sinner will win the French Open this year for a price of anywhere from one cent to 99 cents. If Sinner wins, the trader would be paid a dollar for each Sinner contract they still hold, as they could buy or sell in and out of that outcome until it is settled.
The contract could conceivably be applied to much more than tennis. Will Patrick Mahomes be the 2025 Super Bowl MVP? Will Rory McIlroy win the 2025 Masters? Will Jayden Daniels take home Rookie of the Year honors?
Kalshi’s filing indicates the prediction market plans on ramping up its sports trading business even further, as it follows the company's recent launch of Super Bowl and other futures-like contracts.
More than $1.8 million in the Super Bowl-related contracts had been traded on the company's platform as of Thursday morning. Similar to the betting markets, Kansas City is favored to win the Big Game at Kalshi, as the Chiefs "yes" contract was trading at 54 cents apiece, while the Philadelphia Eagles were priced at 47 cents.
Kalshi is eyeing more action. Its CEO, Tarek Mansour, recently put the call out on social media for whales wanting to get down big bets on the Super Bowl.
$1,000,000
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) January 28, 2025
That's reportedly the largest SB bet placed this year (by @stoolpresidente ?)
I'm surprised by how small this is (we had much bigger election trades)
If you're looking to place a trade of this size, or larger, DM me.
Can trade in all 50 states with Kalshi
Kalshi's sports contracts are in addition to the numerous others the company offers for trading, such as those involving politics, culture, and economics. The prediction market indeed rose to prominence over the past year as it attracted millions of dollars in de facto wagering on U.S. election odds, and it continues to expand its offerings. The company even has arguably sports-related contracts available, such as which companies will run Super Bowl ads and what songs will be played for the game's halftime show.
With all that said, there is still a legal and regulatory cloud that is looming over the prediction market industry, even if it looks a lot less ominous these days.
Kalshi and the CFTC have been butting heads in court over election-related contracts, although the company has thus far prevailed. Furthermore, the CFTC, under its previous chairman and during the final days of the Biden administration, challenged the sports event contracts of another operator, Crypto.com.
Some rain on the Super Bowl parade
Those two battles haven’t ended yet. They could soon, though, and the CFTC’s new acting chairman, Caroline Pham, has been critical of the regulator’s approach to event contracts in the past. Kalshi also has the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., as an advisor, which could prove prudent for the next four years.
At any rate, the federally regulated contracts that Kalshi is offering and plans to offer are available in all 50 states, not just those with legal sports betting. That makes its Super Bowl, March Madness, and “achievement”-related products competition for regulated online sports betting sites in the U.S.
Those bookmakers may not take the threat lying down. For example, following the success Kalshi and Robinhood had in taking election bets, DraftKings suggested it is looking into prediction-market possibilities for itself.
You're not welcome here
As with its Super Bowl and title-holder contracts, Kalshi's new products will have trading prohibitions for certain people, such as current and former players and coaches involved with the league that's implicated. Also banned from trading are paid employees of the leagues involved, owners, and family members of participants.
"These prohibitions apply as relevant to the values of <achievement>," Kalshi said in its filing. "For example, former players in the French Open are not prohibited from trading on iterations of the Contract related to the English Premier League unless they are part of any other group listed for that league."
Kalshi noted again that the contracts have not been endorsed by any league or association either.
"The use of any names of leagues or associations does not indicate an endorsement of this product," the company added in its filing.
