With the 2025 Canadian federal election set for April 28, the Liberal Party, led by new Prime Minister Mark Carney, remains a commanding -600 favourite to win. That said, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are less than four points behind in the latest polls and are still very much in play at +290.
With more than seven million Canadians having already voted in advance polls, this is shaping up to be a historic event, and bettors are eager to get in on the action.
Here are the latest odds for the upcoming Canadian election:
2025 Canadian Election odds
| Party |  |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Liberal Party |
-600 | 85.7% |
 Conservative Party |
+290 | 25.6% |
| Any other party | +7500 | 1.32% |
Odds as of April 25, 2025.
Monday's results could be closer than the odds suggest
While the polls haven't seen much movement lately, the odds continue to widen with the Liberal party moving from -310 to -600 over the last week. Meanwhile, the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre have shifted from +220 to +290. Despite those lopsided odds, it's still expected to be a close race with the latest aggregated poll tracker at CBC giving the Liberals a 3.7-point lead (42.3-38.6).
This is actually the best the Conservatives have polled in more than a decade, but it might not be good enough with the Liberal party siphoning votes from the New Democratic Party.
The NDP currently have 25 seats in the House of Commons and have traditionally split the leftist vote in Canada. However, with left-leaning Canadians fearing the threat of a right-wing populist regime, many are throwing their support behind the Liberals.
Carney has emerged as the right leader at the right time
The Canadian election odds have seen an incredible turnaround over the last few months, with the Conservatives moving from a -2000 favourite in January to an underdog. The Liberal Party was a +900 longshot at the start of the New Year but has surged following the resignation of embattled former PM Justin Trudeau and the nomination of Carney.
Carney is the former governor of the Bank of Canada (2008 to 2013) as well as the governor of the Bank of England (2013 to 2020), and he's viewed by most Canadians as the better choice to revitalize the nation's slumping economy.
While Carney has been able to distance himself from the increasingly unpopular Trudeau, Poilievre has struggled to distance himself from US President Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. Those optics have been a nightmare for the Conservative Party due to the ongoing trade war with the U.S. and the constant political circus south of the border.
BET99 bettors are backing the Conservatives in a big way
While the Liberals have a significant lead on the odds board and are even expected to win a majority government (-160 at BET99), Canadian bettors aren't convinced. Whether it's due to a lack of trust in the polling or the draw of plus money, bettors at BET99 are backing the Conservatives.
As of April 25, a whopping 85.2% of the handle has come in the Conservatives with 72.6% of the tickets backing them. That split has been even more prominent in usually Liberal-leaning Ontario where 82.6% of the bets are on the Tories with just 13.8% of the tickets on the Liberals.
Canadian Election odds movement: A roller coaster in 2025
Here is a look at the wild ride the Canadian Election odds have taken since mid-December (courtesy of BET99), when then-deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation.
