Canada’s federal election campaign is nearing the end, and bettors and voters hoping for a change in government could find themselves disappointed financially and politically.
Key Insights
- Canada's Liberal Party is ahead in both the polls and odds for Monday's federal election.
- Sportsbooks have reported a lot of action on the Conservatives, and a loss by the Tories would mean a loss for Tory bettors.
- It would also mean a big win for the books.
That’s because, as of Friday afternoon, the odds and polls are suggesting the same outcome on Monday: a Liberal win.
At Bet99 in Ontario, the odds of the governing Liberals winning the election were -600, an 85.71% implied probability of victory. Meanwhile, the opposition Conservatives were priced at +290 to win.
Polls are providing similar projections to what the Canadian election odds are saying. The CBC News poll tracker had the Liberals and leader Mark Carney with 42.3% support on Friday, while the Conservatives and leader Pierre Poilievre were at 38.6%.
The Liberals’ fortunes have significantly improved throughout the year, as the Conservatives were once significant favourites in the odds and polls as recently as March.
However, the departure of former Liberal leader and prime minister Justin Trudeau, as well as U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies and talk of turning Canada into the 51st state, have helped flip the odds toward the Grits.
A Friday odds update for Canada's 45th federal election c/o @BET99ON: Liberals by a lot, but Conservatives still within reach pic.twitter.com/bAMV9XuHUN
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) April 25, 2025
If the Liberals hold on, it would be a big win for a party that has been in power for a decade already. It would also be a big loss for bettors.
At BetMGM, for example, the online sportsbook told Covers that 76.5% of bets and 70.9% of handle are on the Conservatives to win the most seats on April 28, Canada's Election Day. The odds for the Conservatives to win opened at -2,000 and have since lengthened past +300 at BetMGM's Ontario site.
Wagering on the Liberals is much lighter at BetMGM in Ontario, the only province that authorizes private operators to take bets.
The Liberals opened as +900 underdogs to win the most seats in the election, and have since shortened to -450 favourites. Roughly 23.4% of bets and 29.1% of handle at BetMGM Ontario is on the Liberals claiming the lion's share of seats on Monday.
FanDuel Ontario has had odds up for the next sworn-in government in Canada since July 2024, and those prices have likewise shifted in the Liberals' favour. In March, the Grits became the favourites in the market, and were priced at -670 as of Friday afternoon.
However, as with BetMGM, FanDuel bettors have largely been backing the Conservatives to win. FanDuel Canada's trading team told Covers that 73% of bets on the next sworn-in government were on the Tories.
The view from abroad
It’s not just in Canada where wagering is happening on the country’s federal election. Overseas, bookmakers have been taking action on the outcome as well.
William Kedjanyi, the head of political content for U.K. bookmaker Star Sports, told Covers that their odds have traced the trajectory of the Liberal Party.
"The Liberals have shortened throughout the campaign with Trump's rhetoric and tariff wars having a big effect of rallying Canadians around the flag, and our odds have followed that,” Kedjanyi said. “We are in the lucky position of having the Liberals as a small winner at the moment, with the Conservatives a small loser, and we're happy with that considering how the campaigns have gone."
At bet365, a U.K.-based bookmaker that is licensed to do business in Ontario, it could be a similar story.
The sportsbook operator told Covers in March that it had seen some big bets come in, all on the Conservatives, including a few that were more than $7,000.
