Greetings, friends!
Donald Trump is scheduled to address the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee tonight, with U.S. election odds suggesting the former president is the strong favorite to reclaim the White House from Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump’s speech will be his first official one since the attempt on his life in Pennsylvania last week that left one person dead and the former president and spectators wounded. Odds are, the Republican's address will be closely watched by millions of voters — and bettors.
Interest in the election and election betting has only increased recently given the assassination attempt, Trump’s selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate, and the reported resistance to another Biden candidacy by some in the Democratic Party following a lackluster debate performance last month.
At PredictIt, for example, the number of contracts bought and sold in its 2024 election market has consistently been in six-figure territory since late June. On Wednesday, the site reported a total trading volume in its presidential election market of approximately 711,800. And odds at regulated sportsbooks such as bet365 have been in flux recently as bettors run hot and cold on Biden’s prospects.
So, given all the interest, Covers plans to, well, cover tonight’s speech to provide updates about possible odds movement, betting angles, reports from bookmakers, and anything else worth mentioning before, during, and after Trump's address. You can check here throughout the day as we will try to refresh this page regularly.
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12:00 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): To start, let’s look at the latest odds, which are once again seeing a lot of volatility.
At bet365, Trump, who will formally accept the Republican nomination tonight, was priced as a -250 favorite to win the presidential election as of yesterday, an implied probability of 71.43%. The former occupant of the White House has long been the chalk on the board, especially following the assassination attempt and amid the recent doubts about President Biden following a debate between the two presumptive candidates last month.
However, by 11 a.m. today, Trump's odds had shortened slightly to -225. And that, at least in part, is because the doubts about Biden are reportedly intensifying. California Democrat Adam Schiff publicly called for Biden to drop out of the race on Wednesday, the same day that the president tested positive for COVID-19. That could sideline Biden from campaigning in person for a few days at least. Moreover, the New York Times and other media outlets have recently reported that Biden has become less hostile to arguments about why he should step aside this election.
Another big shift in the betting markets for the U.S. presidential election this morning. Biden has fallen to +1100 to win at bet365, down from +800 last night and +400 earlier this week. pic.twitter.com/QIWs4P42nf
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 18, 2024
As of Thursday morning, Biden's odds to win the election in November had lengthened to +800 at bet365, up from +400 earlier this week. Meanwhile, the odds for Biden's vice president, Kamala Harris, had shortened to +400 from +1000, suggesting bettors view her as the more likely candidate for the Democrats, albeit not the most likely future president. Harris was -110 to be the Democratic candidate in the presidential election as of Thursday morning, with Biden shortly behind her at even money. The president had been the favorite in that market in the days following the shooting in Pennsylvania, but now he’s fallen behind the veep.
Biden’s odds had tumbled further by around 11 a.m. on Thursday, with bet365 pricing him at +1100 to win reelection. Harris had moved to +300. The VP was also -188 to be the Democratic candidate in November, while Biden slid to +200. Other possible replacements for the Democrats shortened as well, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose odds had tightened to +1400 as of Thursday morning, down from +2500 earlier this week.
What's more, bet365 has odds up for the winning party this November, which reflects what's going on in the presidential candidate market. The GOP is now -225 to move into the White House, the Democrats are +187 to retain the presidency, and the odds of an independent winning (is that you, RFK Jr.?) were +3300.
Our election betting analyst Rohit Ponnaiya has a great rundown here of recent odds movement and the various factors that could influence November's election.
So, could Trump say something tonight that shakes up the betting markets? We'll see if those odds shift before, during, and after the speech, which will be the grand finale of the four-day Republican convention in Milwaukee.
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1:20 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): Turning to the Democrats for a moment, my colleague Ryan Butler had an interesting story this week about how sportsbooks are giving themselves some outs if Biden withdraws from the race. They’re doing so by keeping the price on a Trump victory high, but also offering a wide selection of Democratic alternatives if the current president decides to drop out.
“We have to put them up there because it could happen,” DraftKings Director of Sportsbook Operations Johnny Avello said. “There’s some pretty good odds. But yeah, we’d have a plan if Biden dropped out. We’d adjust. We’d have a ‘Plan B.’”
DraftKings, however, recently closed its political betting markets in the Canadian province of Ontario following the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. The Boston-based bookmaker had only offered those markets in Ontario, and nowhere else. Now, it's just nowhere. More on that in a bit.
In the meantime, Harris is now a -200 favorite for the Democratic nomination at bet365. Biden has moved to +250.
SCOOP: Barack Obama has told allies in recent days Joe Biden’s path to victory has greatly diminished and he believes the president needs to seriously consider the viability of his candidacy.
— Tyler Pager (@tylerpager) July 18, 2024
The two presidents have only spoken once since debatehttps://t.co/pCdatCrjIr
1:35 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): It’s worth noting that election betting is mostly illegal in the U.S. While such wagering is widespread in Canada and the United Kingdom, regulated sportsbooks in the U.S. don’t carry political markets due to integrity concerns, among other things.
The exceptions stateside are PredictIt and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Those sites allow bettors to buy and sell contracts in certain outcomes, such as the winner of the election in November.
But exchange trading is not the same as betting; you’re not putting down $50 on Trump at -250 or whatever the odds are at any given time. Instead, at PredictIt, you’re buying or selling a contract at a certain price. When the outcome is determined you’ll either be paid a full dollar for each share you hold — or nothing if you’re wrong.
There are also limits on what you can get down at PredictIt, such as an $850 cap on investment in any given market. Even so, it is legal and available for those in the U.S. who want to dabble in a certain form of election betting.
For folks outside the U.S., such as in the Canadian province of Ontario, betting on elections is much more straightforward. Many sportsbooks offer election markets, although some with strong U.S. ties, including DraftKings and FanDuel, recently pulled down those options following the assassination attempt on Trump.
Nevertheless, operators such as bet365 have kept their U.S. election markets up during the recent turmoil. That has allowed bettors in Canada and elsewhere to keep wagering on Trump and Biden even as recent events have created volatility at times on the oddsboard. And, at the very least, those sites also offer the U.S. electorate (and… bettor-ate?) a window into how bookmakers and punters view the current state of affairs. More on this later.
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1:45 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): While options for legal wagering on the U.S. election are limited in the U.S. itself, in Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, they were plentiful until only recently. As I noted earlier, after the attempt on Trump’s life last weekend, BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel pulled their election betting markets in the province.
But, as I reported this week, multiple operators with ties to Europe continue to offer odds on the U.S. election in Ontario. That’s even as the handle on Trump to win may be building up.
“I cannot see one good reason why we would take down an election market, in fact, it seems rather mean to do so with such a moment in this election year,” said William Woodhams, chief executive officer of Fitzdares. “The only reason I can see operators doing this is to protect their own wallets from the onslaught of Trump bets that will follow the attempted assassination.”
If you can't bet on it - it ain't real.... our job is not to decide what people bet on, our job is to price it. https://t.co/3LIAnsRvla
— WILLIAM WOODHAMS (@WIGWOOD) July 17, 2024
The extensive experience U.K. bookmakers have with election betting is another reason they’re so comfortable continuing to take action despite recent events.
“We've been taking political bets for over 100 years and it takes a large-scale integrity issue or suspicious betting patterns to halt a market,” Woodhams said. “Elections are about freedom and being able to wager freely on them is part and parcel of that process. I think Mr Trump would support us keeping the market open.”
3:00 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): Funnily enough, the Wall Street Journal has a story out today about election betting: "Meet the Traders Making Money Off the Trump Shooting and Biden’s Stumbles."
However, the article is focused on election-related wagering via the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket. The site is based in New York but does not serve customers in the U.S. following a settlement in 2022 with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
An excerpt: "Ryan—who asked that his last name not be published to protect his privacy—reasoned that the shooting would boost voter sympathy for Trump. Before the shooting, Polymarket put the chances of a Trump victory at roughly 60%. Those odds rose to 70% Saturday when photos of a bleeding Trump raising his fist ricocheted around the internet. That evening, Ryan bought thousands of contracts tied to Trump’s victory, then sold them less than an hour later to lock in a profit of about $700."
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3:30 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): Trump’s choice of Vance for his would-be VP might have delighted some Republicans but it didn’t do too much for bettors. My colleague Ryan reported on Monday that Trump’s odds were unchanged after he announced the selection, remaining in the -275 region. They’ve since lengthened a touch, to -250, and then to -225 today.
The lack of Vance-related movement could reflect the fact that many bettors expected the junior senator from Ohio to be the pick. His odds had shortened to almost even money before he was announced, as bet365 had him priced at +110 as of Friday to be the VP candidate for the Republicans. Vance’s speech at the RNC last night didn’t appear to have much effect on the oddsboard, either, as the numbers for Trump and the GOP remained unchanged in the immediate aftermath. There was then the shift this morning that seems to be prompted more by Biden-related news.
Sen. Vance: "My fellow Americans ... this moment is not about me, it’s about all of us."
— NBC Politics (@NBCPolitics) July 18, 2024
"It's about single moms like mine—who struggled with money and addiction but never gave up. And I am proud to say that tonight my mom is here, 10 years clean and sober. I love you, mom." pic.twitter.com/DE3Is3kFjN
Perhaps where Vance’s selection could ultimately come more into play are some of the other political markets out there or that are still to come. At bwin, for instance, the bookmaker is offering odds on the number of seats in the U.S. Senate that the Republicans will hold after the November election. Over 50 seats for the GOP was priced at -300 or so earlier this week, before shortening to -357 as of Thursday. Meanwhile, odds for the Under and exactly 50 seats were +700 and +400, respectively. We’ll see if there is any shift there
The Democrats have a technical yet slim majority in the Senate at the moment (with the help of some independents), but there are 33 seats in the chamber up for grabs in this year's election. Could Vance help sway some voters, such as those in his home state of Ohio? Winning over Midwestern voters was also a key to Trump's success in 2016, and Vance may help with those efforts in 2024.
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4:15 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): We're perhaps seeing a wee bit of buyback on Biden at bet365. VP Kamala Harris is now -188 at the U.K.-based bookmaker to be the Democratic candidate for the presidency this year, after touching -200 earlier this afternoon. Meanwhile, Biden's odds have shortened to +225 from +250.
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7:30 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): Perhaps not, eh? Indeed, the wheels are starting to come off in the betting markets for Joe Biden. After remaining within arm's length of Trump on the oddsboard for months, the president is now out to +1,400 at bet365 to win reelection in November.
The gap between Biden and his vice president is widening, too. Not only is Kamala Harris currently viewed as more likely than Biden to win the White House, at odds of +275, but the veep is now the -250 fave to be the Democratic candidate in November as well. And, as a Harris presidential run looks more likely, the opposite is true for Biden, whose odds for the Democratic nomination have drifted to +350.
The catalyst is likely the slow drip of news like this: "In interviews with CNN, more than two dozen sources familiar with the dynamics inside the West Wing and campaign said there is now widespread acceptance that Biden remaining in the 2024 race is wholly untenable."
So it's not looking good for the president. Oh, and we're still hours away from Trump taking the stage in Milwaukee. Stay tuned!
Biden's odds to win the election and to claim the Democratic nomination are getting longer and longer at bet365. Now out to +1400 (!) to win in November and out to +350 to be the Dem candidate. That's even longer than we saw during last week's wobbles. pic.twitter.com/lM2HFTiSGY
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 18, 2024
7:55 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): Trump is officially in the house at the RNC. The former president just entered the hall and took his spot in his box, sporting his now-trademark bandage on the right ear.
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8:35 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): It looks like many bettors believe it is well and truly Joever.
Biden is now +500 to claim the Democratic nomination and +1,600 to win the presidential election at bet365. Meanwhile, Harris is a -225 fave for the Democratic candidacy and +275 to win the election. Trump's odds to win back the White House still sit at -225.
Maybe more intriguing is the movement further down the board, where Michelle Obama is now +800 to carry the Democratic banner in November, followed by Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at +900 and California Gov. Gavin Newsom at +1100. Odds for all three have shortened today, which suggests more and more bettors are having a flutter on some of the longer shots amid the steady drumbeat of awkward news for Biden. Whitmer's odds in particular have come crashing down, as the Michigan Democrat was priced at +2,500 to be the candidate this morning.
So did I say +1400 and +350? Because now it's +1600 and +500. The faith in another term for Joe Biden is no longer there from bettors. pic.twitter.com/duBIdYDqK8
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 19, 2024
8:45 p.m. (Rohit Ponnaiya): When it comes to Trump's odds of becoming president, I doubt we'll see much movement during or immediately after his speech tonight. Keep in mind that his gains during the first presidential debate had more to do with Biden's stumbles than anything he did. Likewise, the boost after the assassination attempt was a rare and historic moment that isn't going to be replicated by anything Trump says in Milwaukee. At this point, we know exactly how Trump plays to his crowd and what his speaking points will be, and it's unlikely they'll do anything to sway voters or bettors who are on the fence.
It might be interesting to monitor related markets and how they'll shake out depending on what he says. Rumors are ramping up that Biden (under immense pressure from the party) is now open to the idea of stepping down for Harris, and she's currently -225 to be the Democrat candidate and +275 to be named president. We could potentially see Trump target the VP in his speech if he views her as his next rival, and that could cause bettors to buy in more on Harris.
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9:20 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): Joe Biden is now priced at +1,800 to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election at bet365, an implied probability of victory of 5.26%.
As Rohit suggested below, the real movement isn't happening with Trump's odds, it's going on elsewhere. The soon-to-be-official Republican candidate is still a -225 fave to reclaim the POTUS mantle.
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9:30 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): Not sure this has anything to do with gambling on politics, but the image below is where we're at in Milwaukee. For what it's worth, Hulk Hogan is predicting a Trump win in November.
"Trumpamania" officially running wild at the RNC pic.twitter.com/1pXW0d93UO
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 19, 2024
10 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): At PredictIt, the contract for Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election is priced at 61 cents. This means that if you bought it now and Trump emerges victorious in November, you'd turn a profit of 39 cents for each share you held. That also makes Trump the favorite at the legal predictions market, even if the price of the "yes" contract has dropped by four cents today.
Running second is Kamala Harris, priced at 30 cents to win the election, and then Biden, at 11 cents. Biden's price has fallen by seven cents today, while Harris' is up three cents, mirroring the moves in the betting markets.
The latest @PredictIt prices for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The moves there match up with what we're seeing in the betting markets: Harris up, Biden down, and Trump down as well but still the favorite. pic.twitter.com/CPYWOv8uKL
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 19, 2024
10:20 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): I guess I wouldn't be really doing my duty if I didn't note the performance of tonight's musical guest, Kid Rock.
Time for a brief musical interlude pic.twitter.com/REBcspAVzB
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 19, 2024
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10:25 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): UFC President Dana White now speaking.
Meanwhile, there's been a modest shift in the Democratic candidate betting market at bet365, as Harris moves to -210 and Biden to +450.
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10:33 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): Speech time. Trump thanks Kid Rock and Dana for the introduction following a rendition of "God Bless the U.S.A." by Lee Greenwood. Trump says he proudly accepts the Republican nomination.
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10:35 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): Trump now telling the story of the attempt on his life last weekend in Pennsylvania.
And as I write that I see Biden is now back to +500 to be the Democratic candidate at bet365. Harris back to being a -225 favorite. Trump's odds to win the presidency holding at -225, Harris still at +300, and Biden remains at +1800.
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10:45 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): I’m not supposed to be here tonight, Trump says. The crowd chants back at him “yes, you are.”
Trump mentions the spectators who were shot during the rally last weekend, including firefighter Corey Comperatore, who died during the attack.
He asks for a moment of silence for Comperatore.
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11:00 p.m. (Geoff Zochodne): Trump runs down the list of friends and family in attendance and notes he has a new friend, his VP pick, JD Vance.
"J.D. you're going to be doing this a long time, enjoy the ride," he says.
Thanks the people of Milwaukee as well. Tells them that Green Bay is going to have a good team this year. So he's bullish on the Packers for the upcoming NFL season. Tells the people of Wisconsin he is indeed trying to "buy" their vote by bringing the RNC to Milwaukee. A win in Wisconsin would indeed be helpful for his prospects this November.
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12:10 a.m. (Geoff Zochodne): After an hour and a half, Trump concludes his speech by “humbly” asking the audience for their vote, among, well, other things. We also get a balloon drop (red, white, blue, and gold) and a rendition of “Nessun Dorma,” again, among other things. Obviously, a lot was said tonight but I’ll do a quick odds update and call it a night.
At bet365 in Ontario, Trump is still the -225 favorite to win the presidential election, an implied probability of victory for the Republican candidate of 69.23%. The former president is followed on the oddsboard by Kamala Harris at +300, and then the incumbent, Joe Biden, at +1800. Harris remains the fave to be the Democratic candidate in November at odds of -218, slightly longer than earlier in the night (morning?) and Biden is priced at +450 to run again for the party, shorter once more. Michelle Obama's odds now stand at +800, Gretchen Whitmer at +900, and Gavin Newsom at +1100. A lot of movement for the non-Harris alternatives to Biden over the past day.
At some of the other shops, the odds for the presidential race are similar, but not identical. At Fitzdares, for instance, Trump is a -225 favorite to win in November, followed by Harris at +300 and then Biden at +1400. At Betano, Trump's price is -333, Harris' +400, and Biden's +1100.
Finally, at PredictIt, Trump's contract to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election sits at 63 cents, down two cents for the day. Harris is running second at the prediction market at 29 cents for her "yes" contract, up two cents for the day, and Biden is at 10 cents, down eight cents for the day. Newsom is up three cents to seven cents.
Here’s the latest from our election betting analyst Rohit Ponnaiya:
“No change in Trump's odds immediately following his speech which isn't exactly surprising. Trump began with a brief message of unity but to nobody's surprise ended up reverting to a collection of his best hits in front of his MAGA fanbase. By his standards, Trump steered clear of any controversial statements, only referring to President Biden by name once and avoiding talk about race — with the exception of repeating his claim that illegal migrants are taking 'Black and Hispanic’ jobs. It isn't surprising to see Trump play it relatively safe since he's speaking from a position of strength here. Like a relief pitcher on a winning team, he simply needs to make sure that he doesn't blow the lead.”
That’s it for now. Thanks for reading!
