The two biggest favorites to win the men’s college basketball championship heading into the NCAA tournament are still alive, so it’s no surprise that bettors are flocking to wager on them Saturday in the all-one-seeded Final Four.
“Duke is the most-bet team to cover in the Final Four and Florida is popular with the Johni Broome uncertainty,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “An underdog winning on Saturday would be great for the sportsbook.”
Key Takeaways
- Duke to cover as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday against Houston is the most-bet Final Four market at BetMGM.
- Sportsbooks are rooting for either underdog to come through in the semifinals, but especially Houston.
- Total bettors have chosen distinct sides in the over-under battle.
Duke is a 5.5-point favorite over Houston and leads all teams in Final Four tickets at BetMGM. The Gators (-2.5) are getting the second-most bets in the early game on Saturday against Auburn. The Blue Devils spread and moneyline (-275) are the top two by handle.
The online sportsbook has seen 64% of the bets and 68% of the money come in on Duke, which opened as a 4.5-point favorite. DraftKings reported that 78% of the tickets and 72% of the money are backing the favorite.
BetMGM reported earlier this week that Duke has received more than 40% of the handle in the futures market. The Blue Devils are a huge liability at bet365 as well.
“Florida and Duke winning would be the worst result for us,” a bet365 spokesperson said.
| Operator | Spread bets | Handle | ML bets | Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Duke 64% | Duke 68% | Houston 53% | Duke 75% |
| DraftKings | Duke 69% | Duke 67% | Duke 78% | Duke 72% |
| bet365 | Duke 53% | N/A | Duke 70% | N/A |
Hefty
The Tigers have the longest Final Four odds of the four remaining teams to win the national title, but Auburn has the shortest moneyline to win a semifinal game at +120 at BetMGM. Florida is getting 61% of the ML handle, the fourth most-bet pick by handle at the online sportsbook. The Gators to cover the spread is third.
DraftKings has seen a whopping 71% of the spread handle backing Florida, and the majority of moneyline bets and handle on them. bet365 reported the closest spread split, with 55% of the tickets coming in on the Gators, who have only covered in one of their four March Madness games.
The two teams met in the regular season, with Florida winning outright as an 11-point underdog at Auburn. The spread in the rematch hasn’t moved since opening. Many bettors might be waiting for more information on Broome, the Tigers forward who suffered an elbow injury in the Elite Eight game against Michigan State. He says he will not be limited in San Antonio.
The most popular Florida vs. Auburn prop pick at BetMGM is under 3.5 assists by Auburn guard Tahaad Pettiford at -135.
| Operator | Spread bets | Handle | ML bets | Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Florida 62% | Florida 60% | Auburn 56% | Florida 61% |
| DraftKings | Florida 64% | Florida 71% | Florida 60% | Florida 63% |
| bet365 | Florida 55% | N/A | Florida 57% | N/A |
Total it all up
Bettors have drawn a fairly distinct line when it comes to the point totals of these two Saturday games.
Florida-Auburn is a clear under spot for many bettors. The 161.5 is getting 66% of the handle and 56% of the wagers at BetMGM, and it’s the sportsbook’s sixth-most popular ticket and handle wager.
DraftKings is reporting a much tighter split with 51% of the money coming in on under 159.5.
In the Duke-Houston predictions, bettors are going the other way. DraftKings has seen 75% of the tickets and 74% of the handle on over 136.5. That play is the fifth-most popular bet at BetMGM, where the splits are identical to DraftKings.
Looking ahead
Several sportsbooks have already posted look-ahead lines based on the winners of Saturday night’s semifinals.
If Florida and Duke square off on Monday for the championship, the Blue Devils are a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings, which has seen 82% of the handle and 69% of the bets come in on Duke.
Duke-Auburn at -5.5 is closer, with the Tigers getting 36% of the handle and 29% of the tickets. Houston is a 1-point favorite over Auburn and has a 79% handle backing by bettors. However, the Cougars would be a 1.5-point underdog to Florida, which is getting 64% of the handle. The tickets are evenly split at DraftKings.
