The NCAA men's basketball tournament earned its March Madness moniker because of upsets.
From office pools to moneyline wagering, upsets are the lifeblood of the event, especially in the first round. Beginning Thursday with 16 games, followed by another 16 on Friday, the stage is set for high drama, bracket busters, and opportunities to cash in on all the madness.
As for the most popular underdogs, fourth-seeded Purdue out of the Big Ten is on alert. Thirteenth-seeded High Point has been one of the main attractions.
Caesars Sportsbook college hoops trader Patrick Berbert told Covers this week that the Panthers out of the Big South are “garnering around a 5-to-1 ticket count on the moneyline” in High Point vs. Purdue picks.
With March Madness odds of +280 to win outright, High Point is the most-bet moneyline NCAA tournament team at BetMGM. ESPN BET reported that Purdue has picked up the second-most moneyline bets by tickets, but High Point +7.5 is the fifth most-bet spread at the online sportsbook.
DraftKings said 73% of the spread money and 58% of the moneyline handle are on the Panthers.
Sportsbooks have also reported heavy underdog spread action on Akron +14.5 against Arizona, Yale +7.5 vs. Texas A&M, VCU +2.5 against BYU, and Drake +6 vs. Missouri.
“We’re seeing upwards of a double-digit ticket count on Drake,” Berbert said. “One that’s really surprising to me, though, for the moneyline upsets is Norfolk State. We’re a double-digit ticket count on them to upset Florida. That’s pretty surprising after Florida’s dominant run in the SEC tournament.”
SEC dominance
The most dominant conference in college basketball this season is seeing its success resonate with bettors in the NCAA tournament. The SEC set a record with 14 bids.
The Gators are one of the most popular teams in the Final Four odds market at Caesars. ESPN BET said Florida is getting 63% of the wagers – most of any team – to win its region. That’s even ahead of Duke’s 62%.
Berbert said Alabama at +1,600 started to catch bettors’ attention with the second-seeded Crimson Tide coming off a run to the Final Four last year.
Other examples of SEC love are Friday’s 8-versus-9 game between Mississippi State and Baylor and Oklahoma’s showdown with back-to-back defending champion UConn.
“Baylor opened -2. That’s flipped the other way,” Berbert said. “We’re sitting Mississippi State 1.5 right now. Oklahoma is playing defending back-to-back champs UConn and we’re seeing a lot of Oklahoma action there. People aren’t putting their respect in UConn. It’s really all the SEC this year.”
ACC weirdness
A league that’s used to being at the top finds itself in an odd position heading into Thursday’s first-round action. Duke is one of the favorites to cut down the nets in April, but the health status of star player Cooper Flagg complicates matters. Still, Berbert said bettors had no issue backing the Blue Devils in the ACC tournament after Flagg went down, so he expects that to continue through the first weekend of the NCAAs.
North Carolina was the team seemingly nobody but the NCAA selection committee wanted in the field, but the Tar Heels are fresh off a blowout of San Diego State on Tuesday night in the First Four, and now they’re a 1.5-point favorite over sixth-seeded Ole Miss on Friday.
BetMGM has the Heels getting 90% of the early handle and 72% of the tickets.
And then there’s Clemson, a team that made a deep run to the Elite Eight last year and is back with a better record this year. However, the fifth-seeded Tigers drew 12-seeded McNeese State, a popular upset-minded team a year ago that is once again drawing attention.
At ESPN BET, Clemson has seen the most bets on the moneyline, but that game’s markets have undergone weird twists at Caesars.
“I’m a little surprised with this Clemson-McNeese matchup because they’re going opposite directions,” Berbert said. “(Bettors) are playing McNeese on the moneyline but they’re playing Clemson on the spread. It’s a little weird seeing that just because in this 5-12 matchup we thought it would be McNeese both ways on the spread and moneyline. It’s been interesting to see.”
Matchup of the day
A 5-versus-12 matchup that’s hard to decipher is Michigan-UC San Diego. This is the most-bet game at BetMGM, and the Tritons at +125 are one of the most popular moneyline underdogs in the field.
Yet 2.5-point favorite Michigan has seen the second-most first-round bets at ESPN BET. At DraftKings, the Wolverines are getting 62% of the handle and 72% of the spread wagers.
Thursday’s game is also one of the top three most-bet games at Caesars, where the sportsbook has seen interesting splits.
“Usually bettors love to take the 12 seed, especially with this being a short spread,” Berbert said. “Opened 2.5, quickly went up to 3, sitting back down at 2.5. It’s seen great two-way action at the 2.5. We’re a little surprised by that but it’s fun to see that the bettors think that this is going to be a fairly even matchup.”
Jump on the over train
Bettors love taking overs on point totals. The NCAA tournament is no different, where matchups garner more attention than in the regular season.
“They want to watch a thrilling, high-scoring game,” Berbert said. “You’ll see a lot of bettors bet the over in the Alabama games. VCU-BYU over is getting attention. Florida, they’ll see a lot of over bets come in before tip-off.”
At BetMGM, players are drawn to the High Point-Purdue game. Over 153.5 is the most-bet over by tickets, followed by Akron-Arizona (166.5), Georgia-Gonzaga (149.5), Drake-Missouri (132.5), and Creighton-Louisville (145.5).
In one of the lowest totals on the board, SIU Edwardsville-Houston over 126.5 has seen the most action at ESPN BET.
