Bettors and sportsbooks will finally get answers on Thursday night to many of the 2025 NFL Draft’s biggest questions.
Key Takeaways
- The betting market believes quarterback Shedeur Sanders is headed to the Pittsburgh Steelers and going way over his original line of 8.5 picks.
- The number of quarterbacks taken in the first round could come down to Jaxson Dart.
- BetMGM’s market has two teams leading the way to take running back Ashton Jeanty.
How high will running back Ashton Jeanty go? How many quarterbacks will go in the first round? What happens after Cam Ward goes first overall to the Tennessee Titans? What unexpected events will affect NFL Draft odds greatly?
“The NFL Draft brings in lots of attention from bettors,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “Trades, breaking news, and other factors can alter the draft in a moment's notice.”
Maybe the most intriguing and difficult storyline for bettors, though, is when and where quarterback Shedeur Sanders gets drafted.
The Colorado star and son of NFL legend Deion Sanders saw his stock and draft position plummet on Wednesday following a scathing report from NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. A longtime assistant coach called the interview the team had with Sanders “the worst formal interview I’ve ever been in in my life.”
The anonymous source told Pelissero that Sanders was “entitled” and “has horrible body language.” The coach added that the QB takes too many sacks, “blames teammates,” and “never plays on time.”
Hours later, Sanders’ draft position at several major sportsbooks went from over/under 8.5 selections to 21.5.
WOW.
— theScore Bet (@theScoreBet) April 23, 2025
Some VERY interesting movement on Shedeur's draft prop in the last couple hours. 👀 pic.twitter.com/A9RwkzBEDd
“His Draft stock may have been high in December, but with an opener draft position of 3.5 over (-170), that got bet way over,” bet365 trading leader Aron Wattleworth said on Wednesday. “The new line of 8.5 over (-150) is laying -700 over. Many mock drafts now see him late first-round (pick).”
Pittsburgh bound?
BetMGM reported Thursday morning that in the Team to Draft Sanders market, the Steelers have received 27.7% of the tickets and 35.4% of the handle, the most of any team, making them the sportsbook’s biggest liability.
Pittsburgh has pick No. 21 in the first round, and DraftKings has the Steelers at -150 to select Sanders.
The Team to Draft Sanders is one of the top five most-bet markets at ESPN BET. Since the No. 1 overall market opened at the online sportsbook, Sanders has seen 16.2% of the bets and 5.9% of the handle, fourth-highest of any player.
However, it’s been quite a tumble for Sanders, who bet365 said got as short as -200 to be the draft’s first overall selection in December. He slipped to +800 in late January and +1,800 after the NFL combine, where rumors of poor interviews began leaking.
The early buzz made Sanders the biggest liability at BetMGM to be the second and third pick. More than 40% of the handle in the second selection market is on Sanders, while he also has 33.6% of the money to go third.
Relying on Dart
There are other quarterback draft issues lingering beyond Sanders. Ward has the highest handle at 62.5% to be selected first overall at BetMGM, which would be good for the operator since Colorado receiver/defensive back Travis Hunter is that market's biggest liability.
The total number of quarterbacks to be drafted on Thursday is one of the most popular markets at sportsbooks. ESPN BET has seen 51.2% of the tickets and 63.9% of the handle on over 2.5 quarterbacks in the first round. BetMGM reported 51.5% of the bets and 65.8% of the money is backing the same over with odds of -130.
| 2.5 total QBs selected in first round | BetMGM bets % | ESPN BET bets % | bet365 bets % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51.5% | 51.2% | 42% |
| Under | 48.5% | 48.8% | 58% |
bet365 said Wednesday that the over 2.5 has seen a drastic pricing change. It started at -270 and got pounded, pushing it to -450.
“But, as the days have been passing, the market has been moving to flip and is now laying pick'em,” Wattleworth said. “However, this price is a mover and may change by the hour. Action has swapped from majority overs to majority unders, with approximately 58% of all action so far backing under 2.5.”
This is not a deep and talented draft at the QB position. With Ward and Sanders expecting to hear their names called on Thursday, although some draft pundits have moved Sanders out of the first round, the QB that would need to cash those over tickets is Jaxson Dart. There isn’t another quarterback expected to go in the first round.
The Ole Miss star is getting some late buzz to creep into the first round. At BetMGM, Dart is the most-bet top-10 pick at +550, followed by Texas offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr.
Popular running back
Jeanty is one of the most popular players in the draft, and where he lands has been an intriguing guessing game.
bet365 said the Boise State star's draft position opened at 9.5 picks and went from -180 to -270 with 59% of the action on the under. That forced oddsmakers to set a new line of 6.5, which has seen 62% of the action go with over, but under began picking up again on Wednesday.
BetMGM says a leading 19.1% of the tickets are on Jeanty going to the Denver Broncos, who have the 20th pick on Thursday. Denver is the biggest liability, but 34.5% of the handle is on the talented running back being selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who own the fifth-overall selection.
"BetMGM is hoping Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty falls out of the top 5, but besides that, every pick is a case-by-case situation," Cipollini said.
