The weekend’s NFL Divisional Round proved to be the kind of intriguing weekend bettors and sportsbooks were hoping for, and each game was filled with significant wagering outcomes.
With the Washington Commanders upsetting the NFC’s top-seeded Detroit Lions 45-31, a new favorite emerged in the Super Bowl winner market and left sportsbooks rejoicing.
“The Lions losing was a great result for the futures market at BetMGM,” the sportsbook’s trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “On top of knocking our biggest liability out of the running, the Commanders' win also ruined the popular chalk moneyline parlay of Lions, Chiefs, and Ohio State.”
The Philadelphia Eagles emerged from the weekend as the favorites to win the Super Bowl, moving from +400 to +180 following their 28-22 win over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
The Kansas City Chiefs, who beat the Houston Texans on Saturday in another drama-filled game, went from +350 the previous week to +240 after Sunday’s games. Their opponent in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, the Buffalo Bills, is third at +250 while the Commanders went from +3,000 to +700.
The Lions’ demise was good news for sportsbooks, including Caesars.
A bettor in Nevada wagered $40,000 on the Detroit Lions (+295) to win Super Bowl LIX at the Caesars Superdome 🏆
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 18, 2025
Potential Payout: $158,000 pic.twitter.com/H8ofo1J8C6
A bettor in Nevada wagered $110K on the Lions ML (-550) this weekend 🦁
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 17, 2025
Potential Payout: $130K pic.twitter.com/BORjGhY2Xd
At BetMGM, the Lions were getting 14.3% of the tickets and 15.2% of the money in the Super Bowl winner market. ESPN BET reported that Detroit received 21.3% of the bets and 22.5% of the handle, behind only Kansas City.
The Baltimore Ravens, eliminated on Sunday in a heartbreaking 27-25 loss at Buffalo, were BetMGM’s second-biggest liability ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were knocked out the previous week.
There were several other shifts throughout the weekend that heavily swayed markets.
Detroit drama
The most-bet game of the NFL’s divisional round at BetMGM went the way of the sportsbooks. A line that opened at Lions -7.5 moved up to -9.5 before coming back down at some shops on Saturday.
The Lions were the most-bet team at BetMGM by Friday, and DraftKings had reported that 68% of the money backed Detroit to cover the spread.
ESPN BET reported that just 36% of the bets and 40% of the money was on the Commanders, who closed as an 8.5-point underdog and helped bettors in Michigan and Nevada each net $100,000.
A bettor in Michigan wagered $110K on the Commanders +9.5 (-110) against the Lions 👀
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 17, 2025
Potential Win: $100K pic.twitter.com/3HXXXaSKXi
A bettor in NV wagered $110K on Commanders +9.5 (-110) vs the Lions 🤯
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 15, 2025
Potential win: $100K pic.twitter.com/qF5NJcsmoO
However, just before kickoff, 57% of the tickets and 34% of the moneyline handle backed Washington with closing odds of +360.
The total went BetMGM’s way. Under 55.5 in one of the largest playoff point totals ever had the majority of the bets at the online sportsbook, but the two teams combined for 52 points in the first half and blew past the 55 by the third quarter.
Check those tickets
The Chiefs-Texans game wasn’t without drama, either, and left bettors double-checking just which line they got after a host of spreads from 7.5 to 9.5 were offered during the week.
The favored Chiefs were up 11 points in the fourth quarter and looked poised to cover the spread, but an interesting decision in the final seconds changed the betting landscape.
Kansas City opted to take a late safety on a punt attempt, designed to avoid an advantageous opportunity for Houston. That decision shifted the spread for many Texans bettors to a push or a win, which was immediately noted by ESPN’s commentators during the broadcast.
ESPN BET reported that its line moved to Chiefs -9.5 early Saturday. As of Friday afternoon, 61.8% of the bets and 65.9% of the handle were on the Chiefs between -7.5 and -8.5.
After Saturday’s move to 9.5, 70% of the tickets and 72% of the money came in on the Texans to cover.
A bettor out of MI wagered $110K on the Texans +8 (-110) against the Chiefs 👀
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 15, 2025
Potential payout: 210K 😱 pic.twitter.com/yfZvhsKGVk
Sportsbooks did make out big in the player prop department as Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco was held in check. FanDuel reported last week that the overs on several of his props were being pounded.
The most-bet player prop at BetMGM, Pacheco received 99% of the wagers on the over for his rushing total of 41.5 yards. However, Pacheco rushed just five times for 18 yards and failed to find the end zone or catch a single pass.
Sunday intrigue
The drama continued to play out on Sunday. The Eagles missed two extra-point attempts that would come back to haunt bettors who backed the favorite at 6 and especially 6.5 points.
Philadelphia went up by 6-0 early, missing the first extra-point kick. The second came in the fourth quarter after the Eagles went up 28-15 and looked poised to easily cover, but Jake Elliott booted one wide left on a snow-covered field.
The Rams went right down the field and scored a touchdown and an extra-point kick with less than three minutes to play to cut the lead to six. The underdog even had a chance in the final seconds to take the lead but turned the ball over on downs at the Eagles 22-yard line.
It saved Caesars Sportsbook from a six-figure payout.
A bettor in IL wagered $61,700 on the Eagles -6.0 today 🦅
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 19, 2025
Potential Payout: $117,790.9 pic.twitter.com/wN5Vf2oa2j
In Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, DraftKings reported 51% of the handle and 45% of the bets were on the Ravens -1 in a game full of tight splits that ended up being super close.
The outcome was also affected by cold, slick conditions. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson lost control of the ball in the second quarter, leading to a Bills recovery and touchdown. Buffalo never trailed again.
Ravens tight end Mark Andrews coughed up the ball on a crucial fourth-quarter drive, but Jackson got Baltimore within 27-25 with 1:33 to play with a TD pass. However, Andrews inexplicably dropped a two-point conversion toss from Jackson as Andrews was going into the end zone, sealing the game for the Bills.
The two-point conversion is no good 😳
— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2025
📺: #BALvsBUF on CBS
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus and Paramount+ pic.twitter.com/s1DAo0tdm1
Looking ahead
The Eagles enter Sunday’s NFC Championship Game as a 5.5-point favorite at DraftKings, which has already seen 62% of the money come in on the home team. However, the Commanders are getting a slight edge at 51% of the tickets.
BetMGM reported Monday morning that 66% of the bets and 61% of the handle are backing Washington. The point total of 48 has seen early wagers favoring the over.
A bettor in Nevada placed $269,931.80 on the Eagles (+170) to win the NFC 🦅
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 16, 2025
Potential Payout: $728,815.85 🤑 pic.twitter.com/00mBQtFW88
The Chiefs host the Bills as a slight 1.5-point favorite, but the underdog has seen the bulk of the action, getting 68% of the handle and 64% of the bets at DraftKings for Sunday’s AFC title match.
BetMGM has seen an intriguing split so far with 56% of the tickets backing the Bills but 62% of the money coming in on the Chiefs. There is an even heavier lean on this 48-point total with 72% of the handle backing the over.
