Saturday’s regular-season finale between the visiting Cleveland Browns and the favored Baltimore Ravens raised some eyebrows when the point spread opened around 18 points.
Then news came that the Browns are starting reserve quarterback Bailey Zappe, the former New England Patriot who hasn’t played a game this season, and a host of his teammates are banged up heading into the road contest.
The spread quickly shot up, making Cleveland a 20.5-point underdog as of Friday morning, according to Browns vs. Ravens odds. It’s the largest spread in the NFL this season.
If the line stays where it’s at, it would be just the fifth time since PASPA was overturned in 2018, when U.S. states could legalize sports betting, that an NFL team is favored by 20 or more points.
“It’s one of the largest in recent memory,” a bet365 trader told Covers. “The (Kansas City) Chiefs were -20.5 a few years ago against the (New York) Jets. Pats in their perfect regular season had a couple games where the spread was over -21.5 from memory, and the (Denver) Broncos had a -28 against the (Jacksonville Jaguars) in 2013. But apart from those, this is the largest I can remember.”
A BetMGM spokesperson told Covers that it's the largest NFL spread that the online sportsbook has offered since the Arizona Cardinals were a 20.5-point favorite in 2021 against the Houston Texans. The favorite won, 31-5, covering the massive spread.
The Jets failed to cover as a 20-point underdog against the Chiefs in 2020, according to numbers from StatMuse. The Miami Dolphins weren’t able to stay within 22 points of the Dallas Cowboys in 2019, but the Jets covered as a 20.5-point favorite against the Patriots in the same year.
History of massive spreads
None of the top 25 biggest underdogs of the last 20 years have won outright. ESPN BET reported that a Browns victory on Saturday would be the largest upset in the Super Bowl era.
The Browns are currently 20.0-point underdogs vs. the Ravens this week 😳
— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) January 2, 2025
A Cleveland win would match the largest upset in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). pic.twitter.com/U7Iddrcby6
Ravens-Browns would be around the top-10 biggest spreads over the last 20 years, but of the eight largest lines, the underdog has covered in seven.
The Broncos were listed as a whopping -9,000 on the moneyline in the largest point spread of the last 20 years. They beat the Jaguars 35-19 but failed to cover the huge number.
Five of the top-10 largest NFL spreads of the last 20 years involved the Patriots being favored during the Tom Brady era. The team covered none of those.
Why so high?
Baltimore (11-5) has a lot to play for in this game. Winning by any margin would give the Ravens the AFC North title and lock them into the third seed in the playoffs.
Cleveland (3-13) benefits from a loss. It would give them a shot at the No. 1 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft and lock them into a top-3 pick.
BetMGM reported that the Ravens (-20.5) are getting a slight 53% of the handle while 60% of the bets have come in on the Browns.
If the score gets out of hand early, there’s a chance Baltimore could sit many of its stars, like Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers. That could allow for a late cover of a huge spread.
bet365 noted that 56% of bettors are backing the massive favorite at their online sportsbook. A few brave souls are looking to cash in big if there’s an outright upset. About 8% of all moneyline wagers at bet365 have come in on the Browns at +1,100.
Baltimore’s 30.5 team total has seen 87% of plays on the over at bet365.
