The dominant run Scottie Scheffler is on has drawn comparisons to another golfing great — Tiger Woods. For example, after Scheffler’s win at the Masters on Sunday, he and Woods are the only golfers to win both that tournament and the Players Championship in the same season.
Scheffler was also the first pre-tournament odds-on favorite to win the Masters since 2005, when Woods did it, according to database SportsOddsHistory.com.
With a second Green Jacket to hang in his closet, Scheffler’s odds to win any golf tournament are looking very Cat-like. They aren’t quite there yet, according to one oddsmaker, but they’re getting closer, and another major title or two could shorten them further.
Scheffler's odds to win the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Ky., next month were +400 at bet365 as of Monday afternoon. The closest players on the board, at odds of +1200, were 2023 Masters winner Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy, who won the 2014 PGA Championship that was also played at Valhalla.
If it all feels a little Tiger-esque, consider the following: For the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst Resort and Country Club in June, Scheffler is priced at +425 at bet365, shorter than Rahm and Rory at +1100. But Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk management at SuperBook Sports, recalls Woods being priced as a favorite of -125 versus the entire field of a U.S. Open in the early 2000s.
“So it's not in that realm, but it's the closest thing since Tiger,” Sherman told Covers on Monday.
Scottie Scheffler's odds to win the 2024 Masters (odds via @GolfOdds)
— SportsOddsHistory.com (@SOHistory) April 14, 2024
Opened at +900 last April
Mar 10 +650
Mar 24 +450
Prior to start of...
Round 1 +500
Day 2 +160
Round 3 +120
Round 4 -125
First pre-tourney favorite at the Masters to go on & win since Tiger in 2005
Looking back, Tiger was priced correctly, even if those odds were eye-poppingly short. For instance, Woods won the 2000 U.S. Open by 15 strokes and ended the tournament as the only player under par.
Scheffler backers were similarly correct in paying a seemingly steep price this past week. BetMGM opened him at odds of +900 to win this year's Masters, which shortened to +500 before players teed off for the tournament on Thursday.
By Sunday morning, Scheffler's Masters odds were down to -120 to win golf's first major of 2024, with 15.2% of tickets and 25.5% of outright handle on him to claim his second Green Jacket. At that point, Scheffler was the bookmaker's second-largest liability, behind only Tiger Woods, who finished 60th.
"It’s never a great result when a popular pre-tourney fav goes almost wire-to-wire in the lead to win," bet365 trading leader Aron Wattleworth said in a statement on Monday. "But the overall results of Scheffler’s performance - round by round - were great for the bettors. Regardless of the weather in early rounds or the challengers that tried to keep up with him, he showed why he was such a worthy fav, winning by four shots in one of the hardest tournaments in golf."
2024 PGA Championship
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) April 14, 2024
S Scheffler 4/1
R McIlroy, J Rahm 14/1
X Schauffele 16/1
L Aberg 18/1
B Koepka 20/1
C Morikawa, C Smith, J Thomas 25/1
B DeChambeau, V Hovland, P Cantlay, J Niemann, M Homa, W Clark 30/1
H Matsuyama, W Zalatoris 35/1
J Spieth, T Finau 40/1
T Woods 150/1
Scheffler went off at SuperBook at +500, Sherman said. The bookmaker is offering PGA Championship odds on him of +400, the U.S. Open at +450, and the Open Championship at +500. If Scottie were to keep winning, those odds could get even shorter.
SuperBook is also offering odds of +8000 for Scheffler to win all four golf majors this year, the 2024 Grand Slam. That’s something SuperBook didn’t do for last year’s Masters champion, Rahm, who Sherman said didn’t dominate in tee-to-green metrics the way Scheffler has. Also, Brian Harman, who won last year's Open Championship, was priced at +8000 to repeat winning just that one tournament as of Monday afternoon.
To set the Grand Slam price, Sherman had to forecast the shift in Scheffler odds if he keeps winning majors this year. If he wins at Valhalla, his odds at Pinehurst could be as short as +300; if he wins at Pinehurst, he could go off at Royal Troon at +250.
“It's about finding the price that we can take bets on him but not be overwhelmed by him,” Sherman said.
The price is right, for now
That price could go higher or lower over the next month depending on how Scottie plays, or if he plays at all, given his wife is reportedly near to giving birth to the couple’s first child.
There are two "signature" events on the schedule between now and the PGA Championship, the RBC Heritage this week and the Wells Fargo Championship starting on May 9, which should draw highly competitive fields.
It’s all about perception, Sherman said, even if it’s just people reacting and overreacting to weekly results on the PGA Tour.
“If he comes out and finishes 25th, that might make 4/1 [+400] seem a bit short, even though it's a quick and small sample,” Sherman said. “If he wins those two events, you might see him 5/2 [+250].”
Bookie backed
The fact that Scheffler’s odds are getting so short is helping to inflate the odds of others further down the board, enticing bettors into taking a shot on someone else.
Sherman even posted last week on X, the former Twitter, that the only golfer SuperBook hadn't taken a bet on to win the Masters outright was Ryo Hisatsune. Someone replied to him shortly after with a screenshot of a $2 wager on the Japanese golfer at +100000 odds.
The practice helped SuperBook do well even with Scheffler winning the Masters, as his odds were so short that the liability didn't add up too quickly and was offset by action coming in on his competition.
“We’re not in a position, and I don't expect to be, that we're rooting against him, just because his odds are so short,” Sherman said. “Even back when Tiger was doing really well in the early 2000s, it was awesome that we needed Tiger, because even though you took some bets and some large bets, his odds were so short you just didn't add the liability up too quickly. And that's what we're seeing in this case here.”
