The long wait is over.
The NFL returns Thursday night with a tantalizing season opener between two AFC heavyweights. The Baltimore Ravens visit the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs as a 3-point underdog in the most-bet game of Week 1 at BetMGM.
This primetime showdown will set the stage for what’s estimated to be the biggest betting season ever for the NFL, and U.S. sportsbooks are seeing plenty of two-sided action on the first game.
“Bettors are currently split on the Chiefs-Ravens season opener,” BetMGM senior trading manager Tristan Davis said. “We expect more action to come in on the Chiefs as kickoff approaches. The sportsbook will want the Ravens to cover.”
Split action
The sportsbooks are also split on the type of action they’re getting from Ravens vs. Chiefs picks.
At DraftKings, 52% of the money is on the Chiefs. BetMGM is reporting 55% of the handle is on the home team.
However, FanDuel said 71% of the money is on the Ravens while ESPN BET has the Chiefs getting 65% of the handle.
The tickets are favoring the Chiefs by at least 56% at the reported sportsbooks, except at DraftKings, where the Ravens have received 63% of the wagers.
The flood of wagers on both sides has led sportsbooks to struggle with where to set the spread.
“It’s been a back-and-forth battle with this line all week long,” Max Meyer, senior editor at Fanatics Sportsbook, said in a release Thursday. “When we’ve had it at 2.5, Chiefs money has been pouring in. When it’s been at 3, there’s been good action on the Ravens. Clearly that half a point matters a lot. In terms of overall spread action, it’s about as even as you can get.”
Following a pattern
The moneyline offers less variation, a pattern that bet365 trading leader Aron Wattleworth has seen before between two teams that know each other well and met last year in the AFC Championship Game, which the Chiefs won 17-10 in Baltimore.
“These betting trends have been largely similar for the recent matchups between these teams, where when either is the home team as a small favorite takes more of the spread action and the visiting dog team takes more of the ML action,” Wattleworth said.
The Chiefs are getting 56% of the bets and the Ravens 54% of the handle to win straight up as an underdog at DraftKings, while ESPN BET has seen 65% of the ML tickets and 51.5% of the money come in on Ravens +125.
Tight total
Another popular primetime game wager is the total points scored, and while there hasn’t been much movement since the opening line was posted, bettors are taking a clear direction.
BetMGM has seen the total go from 46.5 to 47, but that’s not a major shift, especially considering 67% of the money and 57% of the tickets are on the over.
Wattleworth said the total ticked down half a point at bet365, but 57% of bets favor the over. DraftKings isn’t reporting much of a difference with 57% of the money and 55% of the bets on the over.
Popular props
Spreads and totals aren’t the only markets driving the action for this season opener.
BetMGM reports that there are more wagers on the player to score the first touchdown of the game than the over/under. And new Ravens running back Derrick Henry is the most popular bet in terms of tickets to do so at +550.
Henry, who came over from the Tennessee Titans in the offseason and has rushed for more than 9,500 yards and 90 touchdowns in his career, is also getting the most bets in the “Anytime TD” market with odds of -120 at bet365, followed by Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco and tight end Travis Kelce.
The over for Henry’s rushing total of 63.5 yards at -125 is getting the fifth-most tickets at BetMGM.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is third and fourth with over 268.5 passing yards (-115) and under 19.5 rushing yards (+115).
