Week 2 of the NFL typically leads to some of the biggest reactions, and even overreactions, in the sports betting market.
The oddsmakers, sharps, and betting public have all had a chance to dissect first looks at teams and form new biases, which can lead to interesting lines and market moves.
The Cincinnati Bengals’ trip to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs looks like the kind of game built for reactions.
The Bengals looked awful in a Week 1 loss to the New England Patriots, one of the worst projected NFL teams in the preseason.
Kansas City, meanwhile, did what Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid's teams do: win a big game over the Baltimore Ravens last Thursday.
Despite the early differences between the two AFC heavyweights, the Bengals entered the week as less than a touchdown underdog, and despite the Chiefs getting the bulk of the action, sportsbooks haven’t responded much since the line landed on Kansas City -6.
“Early action has been on the Chiefs as 6-point favorites, but we are not moving off of that line at this time,” Seamus Magee, BetMGM trading manager, told Covers. “The Bengals looked bad in their opener, but it is important to not overreact to Week 1.”
Bettor favorite
BetMGM reported Friday that this is the most-bet game on the NFL slate, and the Chiefs, who are getting 60% of the handle, are the second most-bet team.
At DraftKings, 78% of the handle and 79% of the tickets are on Kansas City.
The Bengals are seeing even less money at ESPN BET, where 82.6% of bettors are picking the Chiefs to cover the -6.
Neither team is in the top three in handle or bets at Fanatics, but there appears to be enough love for the Bengals to keep this game from getting to the key number of seven.
“There was really strong Chiefs action at -5.5, but the Bengals have actually received more money at +6 and +6.5,” Max Meyer, senior editor at Fanatics, said. “As disappointing as Cincy looked in Week 1, this is still the same team that entered the season with the sixth-shortest Super Bowl odds. And (Bengals quarterback) Joe Burrow has historically been excellent as a field-goal underdog or more.”
Moneyline bets are also skewed heavily toward Kansas City, getting as high as 95% of the tickets at DraftKings, where bettors are also expecting a high-scoring game as 71% of the money has come in on the over 48.
Polarizing Browns
When it comes to overreactions, no team is more polarizing than the Cleveland Browns, who looked brutal in a 33-17 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
The Browns head to Jacksonville as a 3-point underdog on Sunday in hopes of a better showing, something a lot of bettors are counting on. Cleveland has received the second-most tickets (74.7%) at Fanatics while more than 77% of the money.
“It’s interesting to see all this support on the Browns, but I understand the line move,” said Meyer. “The Cowboys’ pass rush was a nightmare matchup in Week 1 for a Browns team without both of its starting tackles. Deshaun Watson got sacked six times in that game. I don’t think the Jacksonville pass rush will pose the same challenges and its secondary lost a major piece with top cornerback Tyson Campbell on IR.”
The Browns vs. Jaguars picks splits are more even at ESPN BET, which reported 54.2% of the money is on the Jaguars to cover the spread. BetMGM has seen 68% of the money and 64% of the tickets come in on the home favorite.
The Browns are the most popular moneyline underdog in Week 2 at Fanatics, and just 43.2% of the straight-up wagers at ESPN are on the Jaguars.
Fading bad
The Carolina Panthers confirmed in Week 1 that it’s likely going to be another long season for owner David Tepper following a 37-point loss to the New Orleans Saints.
It’s no surprise that bettors at BetMGM are fading Carolina even at home and backing the Los Angeles Chargers as the most-bet favorite.
Few bettors are brave enough to back the Panthers as a 5.5-point underdog. The visitors are getting 83% of the spread handle at FanDuel and 88% at DraftKings. There are some willing to take a shot at the moneyline, though, as ESPN BET reported that 53% of that market’s handle is on Carolina.
The third most-bet team of the week at BetMGM is the Indianapolis Colts, a 2-point favorite over a Green Bay Packers squad set to start Malik Willis at quarterback. Indy is getting 62% of the bets and 59% of the money as an away favorite.
Around the league
The most-bet underdogs to win outright at BetMGM are the Las Vegas Raiders (+350) at the Ravens, Los Angeles Rams (+100) at the Arizona Cardinals, and Saints (+230) at the Cowboys.
With the Rams putting receiver Puka Nacua on the injured reserve list this week, FanDuel reported that bettors are grabbing receiver Cooper Kupp prop overs.
A whopping 80% of the money is coming in on over 41.5 in the NFC East showdown between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders.
In the Monday night game, the Atlanta Falcons at +6.5 and +230 on the moneyline have received the fewest wagers of any team in Week 2 at Fanatics, which reported 91% of the money is on the Philadelphia Eagles.
“It’s jarring to see how little interest there is in the Falcons compared to anyone else,” Meyer said. “Every other team has at least two times the spread bets and two times the moneyline bets compared to Atlanta. The action on the Monday game will really ramp up the day of, but as of now, no one wants any part of the Falcons. I don’t think that will change much come Monday after how Kirk Cousins looked.”
