Sports betting operators drew a huge sigh of relief Saturday when Duke was eliminated from winning a national men's basketball championship.
Key Takeaways
- Houston did the sportsbooks a huge favor by beating Duke in the Final Four.
- Another Cougars win would be best for some, but cause futures market liabilities for others.
- Operators provide spread, moneyline, and total splits.
The Blue Devils were the favorites to win it all and the biggest liability in the futures market at multiple sportsbooks. Instead, Florida and Houston square off for college basketball’s national championship Monday with the Gators a slight favorite.
“Regardless of which team emerges victorious, the outcome will be favorable for the book in terms of futures liabilities,” Caesars Sportsbook college basketball trader Patrick Berbert told Covers on Monday. “However, a larger number of bettors are likely to support Houston, as their victory would result in more payouts from the futures.”
Other sportsbooks are pleased with the Final Four results and are looking for one more big win by the team that did it to the Blue Devils.
“Duke losing in the Final Four was a great result for BetMGM,” said Seamus Magee, a trading manager with the operator. “The sportsbook is cheering for Houston to upset Florida in the championship game.”
Sportsbook splits
| Operator | Spread bets | Handle | ML bets | Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Florida 61% | Florida 53% | Houston 53% | Houston 55% |
| DraftKings | Florida 69% | Florida 73% | Florida 57% | Florida 63% |
| FanDuel | Florida 59% | Florida 50% | Florida 56% | Florida 56% |
| ESPN BET | Houston 50.3% | Houston 60.7% | Florida 55.3% | Houston 53.2% |
| bet365 | Florida 63% | N/A | Florida 56% | N/A |
| Caesars | Florida 62% | Florida 68% | Houston 51% | Houston 56% |
Florida, which covered as a 2.5-point favorite against Auburn to reach the NCAA Championship Game, is laying -1 to -1.5 points at U.S. sportsbooks. Among operators that provided Covers with Florida vs. Houston prediction insights for Monday’s game, the Gators own the highest split in terms of tickets at DraftKings, where they’re getting 69% of the spread wagers.
The spread handle jumps to 73% at DraftKings while FanDuel has seen even money on both sides. Florida and Houston are close to even at BetMGM, but the Gators are seeing a more robust 61% of the bets. ESPN BET reported that Houston owns a slight lead in ticket count.
As for the moneyline, most operators are offering around -110 or -115 on the Gators and -105 to -110 on the Cougars. Florida dominates the ML action and money at DraftKings and FanDuel, but Houston is getting 55% of the handle and 53% of the tickets at BetMGM. The most money on Florida to win outright can be found at DraftKings, with 63% backing the Gators.
At ESPN BET, more bets are on the Gators ML, but the Cougars have seen more than 53% of the money. bet365 reported that early ML wagering was on underdog Houston at +105, but that has since come back to both teams being -115, with the Gators getting 56% of the action.
Total update
Much more significant splits are being seen on the total points scored for Monday’s game. While bet365 said it opened the over/under at 142, and it did drop to 140.5, it appears to be settled at 141. The online sportsbook said the bulk of the action has been at 141 with sharps banging under 142.
Still, the total action is siding with the over at 55%, which bet365 said is typical in championship games. However, Florida is a high-scoring team while the Cougars rely much more on defense.
That’s created some interesting splits elsewhere. DraftKings has 58% of the handle on under 141.5, but 53% of the bets are on the over. ESPN BET said 62.4% of the money has come in on the under, which is only getting 26.7% of the tickets.
BetMGM has seen the total tick up a point to 141.5, and the over is getting 56% of the bets while the under has seen 61% of the money.
Major wagers
All three of BetMGM’s biggest futures market liabilities – Duke, Michigan State, and St. John’s – are now out, leaving a few notable bets outstanding.
The online operator reported that a bettor put down $100,000 with odds of +900 on Florida to win the national championship. Another $50,000 bet on Houston at +600 to win it all also lingers.
The Gators began the season with Final Four odds of +4,000 and entered the NCAA tournament at +325 at BetMGM. The Cougars went from +1,400 at open to +600 when March Madness tipped off.
Caesars did take a $71K bet with a six-figure payout on Houston to win on Monday night.
A bettor in New Jersey wagered $71,545.94 on the Houston ML (+100) tonight 😮
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) April 7, 2025
Potential Payout: $143,091.88 pic.twitter.com/RRtCNolMyE
Other markets
Duke and Auburn being eliminated also killed off future wagers on Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome to win most outstanding player. bet365 said Duke’s star freshman owned 49% of the market’s tickets.
The two big ones left in the MOP market are Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. and Houston’s L.J. Cryer. Clayton opened at +600 to win the honor at BetMGM and is now down to +100. Cryer began with March Madness most outstanding player odds of +1,100 but has come down to +120.
Clayton has about 10% of bet365’s market action while BetMGM says the Gators star is drawing 13.2% of the tickets and 20.9% of the handle. He’s also BetMGM’s leader in the player prop market, with bettors placing the most tickets on his over 19.5 points at -140.
Clayton’s over 3.5 assists (-135) is second in the prop market while Cryer is third with over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-150).
