The second weekend of March Madness went eerily similar to the first.
Chalk reigned supreme as all four No. 1 seeds in the men’s NCAA tournament won out to reach the Final Four, eliminating three No. 2 seeds and one No. 3 seed in the Elite Eight.
Moneyline parlay bettors cleaned up on the lack of upsets and the favorites’ success.
“All 1-seeds reach the Final Four for just the second time in the NCAA Tournament and the first since 2008,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “The tournament has gone in the bettors’ favor with favorites consistently winning.”
Duke, Houston, Auburn, and Florida provided great parlay opportunities in the Sweet 16 with Houston beating Purdue by two points while the other three won easily. Alabama and Tennessee also won with Sweet 16 blowouts while Michigan State and Texas Tech survived scares with late rallies.
In the Elite Eight, 92% of the moneyline handle at ESPN BET was on Florida to get past Texas Tech, while Duke got 90.2% of the ML handle against Alabama. Auburn had 77% on Sunday while Houston picked up just 58% of the money.
Winning some back
The lack of underdog outright wins, however, provided bounce-back opportunities for the sportsbooks because it’s March Madness. Bettors and fans love picking the little guy, just like in the previous weekend. But they didn’t hit.
“Moneyline parlays have definitely been a boost for the bettors, with minimal upsets occurring,” Caesars Sportsbook college hoops trader Patrick Berbert told Covers on Monday. “In terms of straight bets, Caesars Sportsbook has garnered significant interest on the moneyline for underdogs, however.”
The most-bet game at BetMGM on Sunday was Tennessee +125 on the moneyline. The Vols scored just 15 points in the first half and were dominated by Houston in the Elite Eight.
The sportsbook was helped out on Saturday by an underdog that covered the spread without winning. Florida -7.5 was BetMGM’s most-bet team, and the Gators beat Texas Tech by five points to advance to the Final Four.
Alabama at +230 was the most popular moneyline team and the second-most bet spread underdog, but the Crimson Tide were crushed 85-65 by the Duke Blue Devils.
The popularly wagered over of 174.5 didn’t even come close to hitting, leading to another win for the books.
Auburn just covered as a 4.5 to 5.5-point favorite in a 70-64 win over Michigan State on Sunday. The Spartans took the most money and tickets at BetMGM on Friday against Ole Miss, which covered a 3.5-point underdog by a half point.
Futures market update
Duke still being alive is still bad for the sportsbooks.
The favorite to win it all is the biggest Final Four odds liability at BetMGM. The Blue Devils have received 14.1% of the bets and a whopping 40.5% of the money in the online sportsbook’s national champion market.
The online sportsbook also said one bettor has $500,000 on Duke to win it all with odds of +350. Caesars Sportsbook reports that a New Jersey bettor threw down $25,000 on the Blue Devils heading into the Final Four and is looking to double their money with odds of +100.
Michigan State’s departure certainly helped BetMGM’s futures liabilities, but Florida is now second in the market with 11.7% of the handle to win it all. Houston is third at 8.9% at BetMGM.
A bettor does have a $100K wager on the Florida Gators at +900 while another put $50K on Houston at +600.
At DraftKings, Duke still leads the field with odds of +105 and has received 30% of the handle. Florida is second at +290, followed by Houston at +350 and Auburn at +500. The Gators have seen the second-most money at 12% with Auburn third at 7%.
Looking ahead to the Final Four
The Gators, who beat Auburn 90-81 in a regular-season meeting, are a 2.5-point favorite over the Tigers in Saturday’s first Final Four showdown in San Antonio. BetMGM’s early splits have Florida 64% of the bets and 75% of the handle while DraftKings is reporting 83% of the money is backing the favorite.
Duke heads into Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite over Houston, which is getting just 16% of the tickets and 8% of the money in BetMGM’s early report. DraftKings has seen 88% of the handle and 79% of the preliminary bets on the Blue Devils.
