The NFL Divisional Round is where the fun really begins.
Wild Card Weekend saw home teams go 5-1, although the Los Angeles Rams technically played in Arizona on Monday night, while unders hit in all but one contest.
All in all, it wasn’t the most dramatic round of NFL playoff games for sports bettors. That could certainly shift this week with four intriguing matchups.
Betting splits, provided by several U.S. sportsbooks, paint a picture of unknowns and some potential chaos, but in the end, it’s pretty clear what the house is rooting for this weekend.
“It’s the same old song and dance for the NFL,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “The sportsbook needs the underdogs to cover, and is hoping for one of the dogs to win outright to break up parlays.”
The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions are each hosting home playoff games as more than a touchdown favorite, and those have been the two most popular teams among public bettors all season, setting up what could be a wild ride on Saturday.
Texans at Chiefs
Houston enters the first Saturday game coming off an easy upset of the Los Angeles Chargers while the Chiefs earned the week off by going 15-2 in the regular season.
Looking at the NFL Divisional Round odds, Kansas City opened as a 7.5-point favorite but the spread is now at -8.5 and getting 54% of the handle at DraftKings. However, 56% of the tickets have come in on the Texans. Houston, the third most-bet team of the weekend at BetMGM, is getting 50% of the tickets and 43% of the money at that online sportsbook.
bet365 reported a near 50/50 split on the spread wagers, but plenty of bettors are loading up on the Chiefs moneyline, which has received 90% of the plays. That’s no surprise as quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs during his six-year career.
The point total at 41.5 has created a conundrum as BetMGM reported 55% of the tickets are on the over while 55% of the money is on the under. ESPN BET, however, has seen a strong lean to over 42.5, which has seen 71% of the bets and 70% of the handle in the Texans vs. Chiefs predictions.
The over on Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco’s rushing total of 41.5 yards (-115) is getting 99% of the wagers at BetMGM. It’s the most-bet player prop of the divisional round.
Commanders at Lions
In the most-bet game of the weekend at BetMGM, it’s no surprise the Lions are also the most popular team the public is backing. The spread opened Detroit -7.5 but moved to -9.5, despite 62% of the bets coming in on Washington.
BetMGM also reported that the handle is 50/50 while the Commanders, who upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, are the most-bet team in terms of money this weekend.
DraftKings reported that 68% of the money is on the Lions, while the tickets are split evenly. bet365 said 59% of the action is backing the Lions, but plenty of Commanders wagers are keeping the spread from rising.
The online operators also said 89% of the moneyline bets are on the Lions, and there is plenty of parlay action combined with the Chiefs.
The 55.5 points is one of the more extreme totals you’ll see during the NFL playoffs. The under is getting the majority of the action at sportsbooks. Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs leads BetMGM’s first-touchdown scorer market in tickets with odds of +350.
The latest NFL Divisional Round spreads 👇
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) January 16, 2025
HOU @ KC -8.5
WAS @ DET -8.5
LAR @ PHI -6
BAL @ BUF +1.5 pic.twitter.com/3KBSESZj4i
Rams at Eagles
Philadelphia, fresh off a victory over the Green Bay Packers, is just under a touchdown favorite against a Rams team that looked really good on Monday night against the Minnesota Vikings. And this first game on Sunday has created quite an interesting split across several operators.
ESPN BET, which has the home team at 6.5, has seen 47.3% of the bets but 83.2% of the handle come in on the Eagles. DraftKings has also seen more money than tickets on the home team.
BetMGM noted that this game has received the least amount of action of the four, but bettors have taken a stronger stance on the Eagles, who are getting 57% of the tickets and 67% of the money at the online sportsbook.
As for the moneyline, ESPN BET has seen 83.2% of the handle on the home team, but 45% of the money at DraftKings is backing a Rams (+225) upset.
Bettors are leaning toward the over across the board on a total of around 43.5 points.
Ravens at Bills
The marquee matchup of the divisional round also features two of the top MVP candidates between quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Sunday’s late game has seen Buffalo go from a 1-point favorite to a 1.5-point underdog.
Baltimore, which smashed the Pittsburgh Steelers last week to extend their winning streak to five games, is getting 53% of the money and 46% of the bets at DraftKings. BetMGM has seen an even higher amount on the second-most bet team of the weekend with 56% of the tickets and 65% of the handle on the Ravens.
Interestingly, though, ESPN BET has seen a big lean toward the Bills, who are getting 71% of the handle and 51% of the bets coming off a fairly low-key win over the Denver Broncos last Sunday.
Brutal cold temperatures and a chance of snow from an arctic blast headed for Buffalo has BetMGM bettors rushing to get down on the under 51.5 points.
The sportsbook reported 68% of the bets and 72% of the handle are on the total falling below that number. It’s a different story at DraftKings, where 54% of the handle and 53% of the bets are actually on the over, and ESPN BET, which reported 78% of the money and 55% of the tickets are on the total to go over.
Ravens' running back Derrick Henry has been the most-bet scorer in the anytime touchdown market this season, but the NFL divisional round odds of over -200 might scare the bettors off this week. Teammate and tight end Isaiah Likely at +275 is leading that prop market at BetMGM. Allen is No. 2 with odds of +110.
