The final week of the NFL’s regular season can be one of the trickiest for bettors to navigate.
Elite teams like the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles have playoff spots locked up and are resting starters, skewing spreads and totals. Others, like the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Minnesota Vikings, desperately need wins to capture a division crown.
And then there are the lowly teams that have little to nothing to play for, and in some instances, benefit greater from losing and securing a high draft pick than winning a game that doesn’t alter their season trajectory in any way.
Coaching jobs could also be on the line this week. It’s a lot to take in, but playoff implications are drawing the most interest from bettors. The three most-bet NFL games at BetMGM all have them.
With 11 games total impacting the postseason in some way, several sportsbooks provided insights to Covers to help make sense of Week 18’s markets.
Separation Saturday
Two of the most important games with a ton of betting interest this week are being played on Saturday.
The Ravens can clinch the AFC North title and enter as a massive 20.5-point favorite at BetMGM, the largest spread in an NFL game since 2021. The underdog Browns, who brought the line down to 19.5 at DraftKings, are getting 68% of the tickets and 63% of the handle. However, 88% of the moneyline handle is on the Ravens at -2,400.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (+165) is the most-bet anytime touchdown scorer so far this week as well.
Pittsburgh is rooting for the biggest upset of the Super Bowl era because if the Browns beat the Ravens, the Steelers get the division crown if they beat the Cincinnati Bengals, the most-bet team by tickets and handle at BetMGM.
Favored by two points, the Bengals are getting 83% of the handle and 76% of the bets. Joe Burrow and company need a win over the Steelers and losses by the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins to make the playoffs.
Another intriguing storyline for Saturday: If the Ravens clinch, will the Steelers rest their starters, setting up a likelier Bengals victory? Cincinnati’s +1,700 to make the playoffs at bet365.
For all the marbles
The Week 18 game with the most bets is a huge one. The Vikings visit the Lions with the winner claiming the NFC North, obtaining a first-round bye, and getting home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
In Sunday night’s game that has the Lions favored by 2.5 points, DraftKings reports that 76% of the handle and 64% of the tickets are on the Lions. BetMGM has seen 62% of the money on the Vikings but 53% of the tickets on the home team.
The Lions are the second-most bet team at BetMGM, and the game also has the most-bet over (56) in terms of tickets at the online sportsbook.
ESPN BET has seen 74.6% of the handle but just 51.1% of the tickets come in on the Vikings at +3.
AFC’s last spot
The Broncos are in the best spot to obtain the AFC’s lone open wild-card playoff berth, needing a win as a 10.5-point favorite at home against a Chiefs team that’s sitting stars Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, and Chris Jones, among others.
"An opening line of Denver -9.5 would normally be a shocker, but with the players out for KC, and those who may only play a set amount of downs … it’s a handicap for a highly motivated home team, versus a team just looking to avoid injuries," said bet365 trading leader Aron Wattleworth.
Despite that, bettors are all over the Chiefs, who have the most tickets among Week 18 underdogs at BetMGM with odds of +400. The operator also reported that just 22% of the spread bets and 19% of the handle have come in on Denver.
DraftKings reported 79% of the bets and 68% of the handle are backing the Chiefs with another 83% of moneyline handle taking the underdog.
The Dolphins need a win over the New York Jets and a Denver loss to make the playoffs. The 1-point road favorite is getting 74% of the bets and 70% of the handle at BetMGM.
Madness down South
The only playoff spot and division up for grabs in the NFC is in the South, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are hoping to hold off the Atlanta Falcons for the automatic playoff spot. Second place gets nothing but an early offseason.
The Falcons host the Carolina Panthers as an 8.5-point favorite. Bettors aren’t backing the team in the must-win situation.
BetMGM reported that 90% of the moneyline handle is on the Panthers, and the Falcons are getting just 33% of the tickets and 23% of the money to cover the spread. However, ESPN BET reported that 91.7% of the handle and 91.4% of the ML tickets are on the Falcons at -425.
Atlanta needs to simply win but hope for a Bucs loss. Tampa Bay is a 14-point favorite against the New Orleans Saints at DraftKings, which has seen 79% of the handle and 77% of the tickets come in on the Bucs. BetMGM reported a whopping 89% of the money is on Tampa Bay -13.5.
Bucs receiver Mike Evans, who needs 85 yards to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th consecutive season, has the second-most bet player prop with over 94.5 receiving yards at BetMGM. Evans will also get a $3 million bonus if he reaches the milestone and catches five more passes. It's among the most intriguing contract incentives entering the final week of the regular season.
