Despite Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets being 2-6, the AFC East squad is favored over the Houston Texans at home on Thursday Night Football.
However, the majority of bettors aren’t buying it. The 6-2 Texans as 2.5-point underdogs are a popular spread bet for this matchup at FanDuel.
“The public does not seem to think the Jets have any business being favored as this is one of the most lopsided betting splits of the season with the Texans taking around four times as many bets on the moneyline as the Jets,” a FanDuel trader said. “We have also seen almost double the number of bets on the Texans spread compared to the Jets.”
The Texans are getting 66% of the tickets and 59% of the handle at FanDuel. As for the moneyline, Houston has seen 80% of the bets and 65% of the handle at +112 to win outright at MetLife Stadium.
Not alone
FanDuel isn’t the only online sportsbook reporting heavier Texans action.
ESPN BET reported that 89.9% of bets and 76.6% of the handle are on Houston at +2, despite the line opening with the road team as a -1 favorite. Less than 10% of the bets are on the Jets while 72.5% of the handle is on the Texans.
DraftKings told Covers that 71% of the wagers have come in on the Texans, but just 51% of the money backs them at +2.
BetMGM reported 82% of bets and 55% of the money back Houston ML at +105 while 76% of the handle is on the underdog’s spread.
Backing the Jets
At Fanatics Sportsbook, nearly 70% of the bets and 66% of the handle are on the Texans, but it appears there is some love in the market for the Jets.
And it could be from sharp money.
“It’s not a surprise that the public is all over the Texans,” Max Meyer, senior editor at Fanatics Sportsbook, said. “Texans moneyline has over two times more tickets than any other wager this game, and Texans spread has the second-most bets. But there has been big Jets money coming in this afternoon on the moneyline. In fact, there’s now more handle on Jets moneyline than Texans spread and Texans moneyline combined.”
Houston, we have a problem
The Jets have failed to cover the spread in their last three games as a favorite, and it’s rare to be expected to win against a team with a winning record this late in the season.
🏈#Texans at #Jets
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) October 31, 2024
🕣8:15 p.m.📺Prime 📻Q104.3
Jets favored by 2; O/U 42.5. HOU has 51% chance to win, per ESPN Analytics.
If Jets close as favorite: 5th time in SB era a team w/ .250 or worse win pct is favored over team w/ .750 or better in Wk 9 or later.
Pick: HOU, 23-20
So why the love for an underachieving New York team?
“This game is really fascinating, so let’s address why the Texans are underdogs and the action,” Meyer said. “Yes, the Texans are 6-2. But with a season point differential of only +9, they haven’t been playing like a 6-2 team. In fact, they’re closer to the Jets’ point differential (-20) than the next-lowest point differential of any other 6-win team (Packers at +46)."
Injuries also play a role in the spread. Houston is banged up after losing receiver Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL last week. Fellow pass-catcher Nico Collins is sidelined with a hamstring injury and won’t be available on Thursday, but could return next week.
The defense has also had several injury issues, but Houston’s hopeful linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o, and safety Jimmie Ward can play against the Jets.
“The passing offense hasn’t looked the same with Nico Collins out, and now Stefon Diggs is out for the season,” Meyer said. “On the other side, the Jets have been let down by poor coaching and constant self-inflicted wounds, but they still have plenty of talent.”
Prop markets
The Texans vs. Jets prop bet market has also created some vast splits and liabilities for the sportsbooks.
Bettors at BetMGM are expecting Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers to go over his 1.5 passing touchdown prop, something he’s done three of the last four games, but the online sportsbook’s most-bet prop is on Houston running back Joe Mixon to go over 24.5 receiving yards (99% of the handle).
The “Anytime TD” market has also created a liability for sportsbooks.
“We are also hoping (Jets wideout) Davante Adams (+155) doesn't find the end zone for the first time with the Jets as he is our second most-bet TD scorer trailing only Joe Mixon (-135),” the FanDuel trader said.
FanDuel added that 99% of both the bets and the money are on Jets pass-catcher Garrett Wilson to go over 21.5 yards for his longest reception while 88% of the tickets and 94% of the handle are on Mixon to go over 81.5 rushing yards.
Tank Dell is expected to see a lot of targets in that depleted Houston receiver corps, and 98% of the bets and 99% of the handle are on the over on his 4.5 reception total.
