Last night, the Atlanta Braves faced superstar Shohei Ohtani on the mound, but things will be much different today when the Los Angeles Angels send out Patrick Sandoval, who struggles to get deep despite a solid ERA and FIP.
Can the Braves give the Halos’ starter an early hook and dig into that LA bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in baseball? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Braves on Saturday, July 23.
Angels vs Braves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Braves opened as -200 home favorites and have moved slightly to -210, with a total of 8.5 that leans to the Under. Last night’s matchup between Shohei Ohtani and Charlie Morton closed with the Braves as -140 favorites and a total of 7.0.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Angels vs Braves predictions
- Prediction: Angels F5 +0.5 (+125)
- Prediction: Over 8.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Sandoval Under 16.5 total outs (-110)
Picks made on 7/23/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Angels vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Saturday, July 23, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports
Angels vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Patrick Sandoval (3-5, 3.00 ERA): Sandoval’s numbers are legit with a 3.00 ERA and a 3.05 FIP as the lefty is enjoying his best season. He hasn’t thrown more than 87 innings in any season — Minors or Majors — and currently sits at 80 total innings on the season. He averages 16 outs per start thanks to command issues that inflate his 1.42 WHIP. He gets some weak contact with a repertoire that includes four off-speed pitches, but batters are hitting his fastball at a .415 clip.
Kyle Wright (11-4, 2.95 ERA): Wright headed into the All-Star break with a sub-3.00 ERA, but his FIP of 3.35 and xERA of 3.81 may indicate he is pitching above his talents. He is a former fifth-overall pick, so the pedigree is there. THE BAT has him ranked as the 96th starter in baseball. Wright has given up twice as many runs at home than on the road, as his ERA is nearly 40 points higher at Truist Park. He’s a four-pitch pitcher, but his fastball is not fooling many as opponents are slugging .519 off of it this season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Braves’ last four games. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Braves
Angels vs Braves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
Kyle Wright and the Braves come in as -210 favorites, but I’m a little hesitant to lay the wood on vig here as the pitching advantage might not be as favorable for the Braves.
Wright’s xERA is nearly a full run higher than his current ERA, and the best projection models have him as a 4.00 ERA pitcher this season which is his first good run in the Majors. He threw a career-high 141-plus innings last season — mostly in Triple-A — and the Braves won’t likely want him to go much further than that, especially with a playoff run in mind.
He has a 3.83 ERA over his last seven starts, and many of those games were versus weak offenses such as the Nationals (twice), Pirates, and Cubs. Wright closed as a -220 favorite in his last outing — a 5-4 win versus the lowly Nationals.
The one advantage here is that the Braves have the edge in the later innings with a much better bullpen — but that’s already baked into the line and not enough for us to hit it at -210.
Just because I’m not in love with Wright doesn’t mean I have to love the Angels here, either. The later innings have been an issue all season with Los Angeles. Their current top three arms in the pen all have an ERA north of 4.00, and other than Aaron Loup last night, none of its “A” pen has thrown a pitch in a game in over a week.
With the F5 run line being a derivative of the full-game odds, bettors might have a little edge in backing the Angels at +0.5 at plus money, but it's still nothing substantial. The Braves’ biggest advantage comes in the later innings with the much better bullpen, and there isn’t a huge discrepancy in starting pitching between either team.
Shohei Ohtani should also see three plate appearances within the first five innings, which is notable as he is the best bat in the Halos' lineup.
The Angles F5 RL is a lean for me as I think there is better value to be had. I certainly don’t trust either starter enough to get down on a side for the full game.
Prediction: Angels F5 RL +0.5 (+125 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Last night’s game was delayed due to inclement weather, and some of the same issues could be a problem today. Rotogrinders' weather consultant, Kevin Roth, thinks we could possibly see some delays again tonight.
The possible rain could hurt both starting pitchers who don’t have the best command issues. Wright has a 4.1 BB/9 over his MLB career, which would rank as the worst BB/9 in baseball right now among qualified starters.
Sandoval currently owns a BB% that sits in the bottom fifth of the league. He only throws his fastball 25% of the time, so grip is a huge part of his pitching. If these pitchers are working in wet conditions, these command issues could be magnified. More base runners equal more runs.
Another angle we like here is the Braves and their loaded lineup feasting on the Halos' bullpen when Sandoval can’t get deep. The starter has lasted 15 outs or less in seven of his 15 starts this season, and the Braves create more runs vs. left-handed pitching than any other team in the National League.
We saw the Atlanta lineup explode for seven runs versus Ohtani and the bullpen in a single inning last night. Today’s matchup is even better for them — especially if Sandoval leaves 12 or more outs on the table.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-105 at bet365)
Best bet
At first glance, Sandoval's ERA of 3.00 looks good, but the southpaw struggles to get deep into games thanks to a very high walk rate. Only six other starters in baseball have a higher BB/9 than the Los Angeles starter.
Potential rain could impact his grip, and as a lefty that throws predominantly off-speed pitches, grip could be an even bigger issue compared to fastball pitchers. To make matters worse, the Braves have an elite lineup that hits lefties hard and leads the NL in wRC+.
THE BAT has him projected for just 86 pitches, and his catcher (Kurt Suzuki) and home plate umpire Alan Porter won’t help either. Suzuki is a below-average framer and Porter is a hitter’s umpire.
The Halos also have a ton of arms in the bullpen that haven't seen any work in over a week, which could make Sandoval’s leash even shorter.
Pick: Patrick Sandoval Under 16.5 total outs (-110 at DraftKings)
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