2024 Rookie of the Year Odds: When Will Pirates Promote Paul Skenes?

Paul Skenes needs a new test. He's mowed over the minor leagues since he was drafted out of LSU last summer and would look right at home in the Pirates rotation. With how they've delayed his debut, though, there might be value in his current number.

May 7, 2024 • 11:00 ET • 7 min read
Paul Skenes Pittsburgh Pirates MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Will the Baltimore Orioles run out of high-end minor-league talent to call up at a moment's notice? Eventually, maybe, but they still have plenty of reserves available.

The Orioles already feature two players in the Top 5 on the MLB odds board to win AL Rookie of the Year and are about to call a third up to the bigs. 

Meanwhile, Michael Busch is the solo favorite on the Senior Circuit thanks to his sustained strong play. Let's break down the AL and NL Rookie of the Year races.

Odds to win AL Rookie of the Year

Player DraftKings FanDuel bet365
Orioles Colton Cowser +120 +125 +125
Rangers Evan Carter +330 +340 +325
Red Sox Wilyer Abreu +650 +550 +550
Rangers Wyatt Langford +1,500 +2,500 +2,000
Tigers Wenceel Perez +1,500 +2,500 +2,500
Rays Junior Caminero +2,000 +1,300 +1,400
Orioles Jackson Holliday +2,000 +6,500 +8,000
Astros Joey Loperfido +2,500 +2,500 OTB
Guardians Kyle Manzardo +2,500 +1,300 +1,400
Orioles Heston Kjerstad +3,000 +6,000 +4,000
Red Sox Ceddanne Rafaela +3,500 +6,000 +5,000
Guardians Brayan Rocchio +3,500 +9,000 +10,000
Tigers Parker Meadows +3,500 +6,000 +5,000
Angels Nolan Schanuel +4,000 +12,000 +15,000

Odds as of 5-7-2024.

AL Rookie of the Year odds analysis

5/7/2024: Be wary of Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser as his status as apparent favorite takes hold atop the AL odds board. Don't get me wrong, his .276/.354/.575 slash line and six home runs to date are impressive. But, he's hitting just .143 since April 19 (15 games) and has been held out of the starting lineup more frequently against lefties. His status here is buoyed by a molten-hot start to his season and by the fact that no one has taken the reins as he's struggled.

Wyatt Langford going down with a hamstring injury certainly doesn't help, and his Texas Rangers teammate Evan Carter is still hitting just .225.

Maybe Cleveland Guardians slugger Kyle Manzardo can make some noise after being promoted on Monday. However, Manzardo's debut was not inspiring as he struck out in all three plate appearances. Chalk that up to jitters, though, because he never struck out more than 20.8% in the minors. His arrival shows how quickly lines can move, though, as Manzardo was available as long as 100/1 a week ago when a promotion was anything but imminent. An injury to Steven Kwan opened the door and now 25/1 is the best number.

The point is Cowser hasn't been doing enough to warrant such a bullish number, so unless you invested in him before he took flight, I'd hold off. In fact, Jackson Holliday at 80/1 is more tempting. He'll make his way back to the majors at some point and it's bound to be an improvement over his first cup of coffee.

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Odds to win NL Rookie of the Year

Player DraftKings FanDuel bet365 Caesars
Cubs Shota Imanaga +300 +300 +300 +295
Pirates Jared Jones +380 +460 +400 +375
Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto +400 +380 +375 +425
Cubs Michael Busch +600 +950 +600 +600
Padres Jackson Merrill +800 +1,200 +1,000 +750
Dodgers Andy Pages +800 +700 +700 +650
Pirates Paul Skenes +1,200 +3,000 +2,200 +1,200
Giants Jung Hoo Lee +1,800 +2,300 +2,000 +2,500
Brewers Jackson Chourio +2,500 +2,800 +2,000 +2,200
Nationals Jacob Young +2,800 +5,000 OTB +6,000
Giants Kyle Harrison +3,000 +6,000 +5,000 +7,000
Nationals Mitchell Parker +3,000 +6,000 OTB +7,500
Cardinals Masyn Winn +3,500 +5,000 +5,000 +7,000
Brewers Joey Ortiz +3,500 +6,000 +5,000 +7,000
Cubs Pete Crow-Armstrong +4,000 +5,000 +5,000 +6,500

Odds as of 5-7-2024.

NL Rookie of the Year odds analysis

5/7/2024: Paul Skenes allowed a home run for the first time in his minor-league career and it bumped his 2024 ERA all the way to 0.99. I guess he's not ready. I understand that the Pittsburgh Pirates want to slow-play Skenes and are wary about injury risk, but he should have been facing better competition yesterday. There have been rumblings that a promotion will be coming soon, though he's still scheduled for at least one more Triple-A outing. With that in mind, FanDuel has moved his number from +1,800 to +3,000 in a week. That is great value with his upside and MLB debut inching ever closer. 

Past Rookie of the Year winners

Previous AL RoY winners

Although all players have an equal chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award, the honor has been claimed disproportionately by outfielders since its inception in 1949. Outfielders have 24 victories compared to 17 for pitchers and 17 for shortstops. Catchers are bringing up the rear with just two ROY victories over the past 72 years.

Year Player
2023 Orioles Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS)
2022 Mariners Julio Rodriguez (OF)
2021 Rays Randy Arozarena (OF)
2020 Mariners Kyle Lewis (OF)
2019 Astros Yordan Alvarez (OF)
2018 AngelsShohei Ohtani (P/OF)
2017 Yankees Aaron Judge (OF)
2016 Tigers Michael Fulmer (SP)
2015 Astros Carlos Correa (SS)
2014 White SoxJose Abreau (1B)
2013 Rays Wil Myers (OF)

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Previous NL RoY winners

No franchise has won more Rookie of the Year awards than the Dodgers. "The Blue Crew" have claimed 18 RoY trophies dating back to the club's early days in Brooklyn.

However, unlike the AL — where the West has been the recent home of the top rookies — the NL East has housed five of the last 11 RoYs, with a mix of outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, and even a reliever.

Year Player (Team)
2023 Diamondbacks Corbin Carroll (OF)
2022 Braves Michael Harris (OF)
2021 Reds Jonathan India (2B)
2020 Brewers Devin Williams (RP)
2019 Mets Pete Alonso (1B)
2018 Braves Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF)
2017 Dodgers Cody Bellinger (1B/OF)
2016 Dodgers Cory Seager (SS)
2015 Cubs Kris Bryant (3B)
2014 Mets Jacob deGrom (SP)
2013 Marlins Jose Fernandez (SP)

MLB RoY odds explained

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Julio Rodriguez all but claimed the AL Rookie of the Year in 2022, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number down the stretch. 

  • Julio Rodriguez -4,000

That means that a bettor in September had to wager $4,000 to win $100 by betting on J-Rod to win AL RoY. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.

  • Corbin Carroll +380

That means a bettor would profit $380 for a $100 wager on Carroll before the season started if he's ultimately successful (which he was!). 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

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MLB Rookie of the Year Awards FAQ

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