We're only a few weeks into the MLB season, which means plenty of value in the MLB player props markets.
While Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez and Reds rising star Elly De La Cruz are off to slow starts this season, their history and analytics suggest they'll turn things around.
That's why my MLB picks for today are betting on big games from them while I'm also backing Bryan Woo to the throw a gem at night.
Here are my best free MLB player props for Saturday, April 12.
Best MLB player props today
De La Cruz Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-115 at BetMGM)
Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings)
Woo Under 4.5 hits allowed (-110 at DraftKings)
MLB props for April 12
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-115 at BetMGM)
Elly De La Cruz made the All-Star game last year and finished the season batting .259 with 105 runs and 75 RBIs in 160 games. The 23-year-old has a bright future and while his numbers this season are ugly, he looks due for regression.
De La Cruz is batting just .236 with a slugging percentage of .400 but his expected batting average is .281 while his expected slugging percentage is at .591.
The shortstop is in the top fifth percentile in average exit velocity while sitting in the top 10th percentile in barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
De La Cruz will play at home today. He'll face Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Andrew Healey, who is due for negative regression.
Heaney has pitched a couple of gems to begin the year, but the 33-year-old has never been able to sustain this level of play for long.
He gets hit hard and is in the bottom 30th percentile in ground ball rate, which is a recipe for disaster in the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings)
Yordan Alvarez is off to a poor start this season, slashing .222/.333/.311 with just 14 total bases through 13 games.
That said, Alvarez is a proven slugger who has been named an All-Star in each of the past three years and has a slugging percentage of .587 over that span.
This season, Alvarez is in the top fifth percentile in average exit velocity and the top 15th percentile in barrel rate, which suggests positive regression in the future.
That regression could start today with the Houston Astros hosting the Los Angeles Angels.
The Halos are sending lefty Tyler Anderson to the mound. He has a 4.50 ERA and a 5.27 xERA through two starts.
Alvarez has strong reverse platoon splits and a history of dominating Anderson. He went 7-19 at the plate with three homers and two doubles against him.
The Angels also have a terrible bullpen behind Anderson, with their relievers combining for an MLB-worst 6.75 ERA.
Bryan Woo Under 4.5 hits allowed (-110 at DraftKings)
Bryan Woo will toe the rubber for the Seattle Mariners tonight. Woo is coming off a rough outing against the Giants but he still has an excellent 0.92 WHIP with an OBA of .186 through two starts.
The 25-year-old had a breakout sophomore season last year, pitching to a 2.89 ERA with an OBA of .211 across 22 starts.
He was even better at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, where he had a 2.47 ERA with a .186 OBA in 58 1/3 innings.
Woo should have an easy time tonight against a slumping Texas Rangers lineup.
The Rangers are 26th in the majors in batting average (.210) while ranking 28th in expected batting average (.228).
Since the beginning of last season, Woo has made 11 starts at home and has allowed fewer than 4.5 hits in eight of those outings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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