With almost half the league crushing 15+ home runs through the first few weeks of the MLB season, the long ball is alive and well – so settle in for a heavy diet of dingers again today.
Favorable pitching matchups and hitter-friendly ballparks set up some tasty plus odds in this market,.
Our top MLB player props for the April 12 slate focus on three proven mashers, including a Toronto Blue Jay searching for his first round-tripper of the year.
Best MLB home run props today
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+850 bet365)
Yordan Alvarez (+320 bet365)
Corey Seager (+420 FanDuel)
HR picks for April 12
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+850 bet365)
Coming off a 5-for-15 series against the Boston Red Sox, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly swinging the bat well, particularly with the contract drama behind him.
But he’s still looking for his first home run of 2025 – and that’s pushed his anytime homer odds into the kind of territory that requires a double take.
Vladdy still belongs alongside the big-ticket sluggers, with a max exit velocity north of 113 MPH and 24 swings clocked 95+ MPH (tied for 12th in the majors), and I like his matchup today against the Baltimore Orioles’ Tomoyuki Sugano.
Guerrero Jr. took a single off the Baltimore righty in the teams’ season-opening series, and 13 of his 15 hits so far have come against right-handed pitchers.
That’s a good sign for this afternoon as he tries to celebrate his monster contract extension in style.
Bad weather forced a postponement last night at Camden Yards, but the forecast looks better today, and I’m riding with Vladdy, who thumped five dingers against the Orioles in 2024.
Yordan Alvarez (+320 bet365)
Yordan Alvarez hasn’t seen much left-handed pitching to feast on this season – just three at-bats in 2025 – so his eyes should light up tonight as the Los Angeles Angels send lefty Tyler Anderson to the mound.
That could trigger a power surge for the Houston Astros, and Alvarez has had the upper hand against Anderson, with a 7-for-19 career record in this head-to-head matchup, including three home runs.
The Houston danger man has been making good contact lately, with seven hits in his last six contests, and his average exit velocity (94.7 MPH) ranks in the top 15 in the league.
Alvarez has crushed 5+ dingers in April in each of the last three seasons, so it’s a little surprising to see just one long ball to his name so far.
But we saw four homers at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park in last night’s clash as the Astros racked up 16 hits on the way to a 14-3 victory, and I see Alvarez grabbing a share of the headlines here.
Corey Seager (+420 FanDuel)
A .205 batting average speaks to Corey Seager’s slow start for the 9-5 Texas Rangers, but he’s still delivered some highlight moments, including three dinger's.
Though Seager went 0-for-3 last night against the Seattle Mariners, he had multi-hit games in his two prior outings against the Chicago Cubs, capped by a pair of home runs in Wednesday’s win.
That suggests he’s heating up, and it’s the type of spark Texas needs at the top of the order with Marcus Semien struggling.
He’ll also have good memories of facing Mariners starter Bryan Woo.
Seager has picked up hits in three of his four at-bats against the Seattle righty, with a double and a homer, and his 2025 average climbs to .241 when facing right-handers.
Despite an underwhelming 41.9% hard-hit rate across his first 12 outings of the year, the pedigree is there.
Seager has served up 30+ round-trippers in each of the past three seasons, and I like the price for this home run prop.
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